A Barr

[purplefaithful]

The Vikings will have a decision to make on Barr, who'll have $7.1 million of his $12.3 million base fully guaranteed in March. 
He missed 14 games with a torn pectoral muscle, but the Vikings still value him as a key piece of their defense. 
The guess here is he's back on a reworked deal
https://www.startribune.com/vikings-rost...600007850/

[Guest]

I'm not convinced the $7.8M in dead money necessitates the Vikings holding onto him. It was all cash up front in the signing bonus that allowed them to lower the 2019/20 cap hits. So you probably have to really hold Barr's feet to the fire since he's not worth the yearly cash on his deal. His value right now is somewhere around $9.5 - 10M per season. 

Think of Barr this way. You paid him $25.1M in cash the past two season ($12.5M/yr) and haven't guaranteed him any additional cash. He's owed $12.3M in cash this upcoming season followed by $12.4M and $14.9M in 2022/23 respectively. We can just say that he isn't going to see the $14.9M in 2023 unless he becomes a drastically different player. The original contract structure makes this tricky where they took a discount on the cap hits makes this tough for the Vikings. On the open market Barr is worth $10ish/yr and if multiple teams had interest he may get back to his cash value of $12.4M in 2022 with added guarantees than he has in MN on his current contract. 

In hindsight this is honestly why you don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul against the cap since the Vikings are going to be stuck with 3 semi-poor options: 

#1. You re-do the entire contract and add years/guarantees to lower the cap hit now. Issue with this is that you are likely in the same spot as you are today a year or two from now. 
#2. You bonus restructure his deal to get cap now to about $8M now and figure out a bigger issue later.
#3. You move on now 

When looking at the options I think #2 is out of the picture since the Vikings don't have a precedence in digging a deeper grave in these situations. Although you would get the cap hit down to $8M this season you only increase the cap hit and dead money in future years, which is a non-starter. I think they'd approach #1 first just to see where Barr is at but as mentioned his market value and cash value here is similar so Barr really has no reason to take this big discount people perceive he will. 

In the end I don't think the Vikings want to move on from Barr but may need to out of necessity. The good news is that I think you can likely trade him for a mid-round pick vs. a straight out release. If they can't, then I think he is a candidate for the post June-1 designation leaving $2.6M in dead money this year and $5.2M in 2022 when the cap hopefully rebounds a bit. As noted, this is what happens when you need to "fit" players into limited cap space. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I'm not convinced the $7.8M in dead money necessitates the Vikings holding onto him. It was all cash up front in the signing bonus that allowed them to lower the 2019/20 cap hits. So you probably have to really hold Barr's feet to the fire since he's not worth the yearly cash on his deal. His value right now is somewhere around $9.5 - 10M per season. 

Think of Barr this way. You paid him $25.1M in cash the past two season ($12.5M/yr) and haven't guaranteed him any additional cash. He's owed $12.3M in cash this upcoming season followed by $12.4M and $14.9M in 2022/23 respectively. We can just say that he isn't going to see the $14.9M in 2023 unless he becomes a drastically different player. The original contract structure makes this tricky where they took a discount on the cap hits makes this tough for the Vikings. On the open market Barr is worth $10ish/yr and if multiple teams had interest he may get back to his cash value of $12.4M in 2022 with added guarantees than he has in MN on his current contract. 

In hindsight this is honestly why you don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul against the cap since the Vikings are going to be stuck with 3 semi-poor options: 

#1. You re-do the entire contract and add years/guarantees to lower the cap hit now. Issue with this is that you are likely in the same spot as you are today a year or two from now. 
#2. You bonus restructure his deal to get cap now to about $8M now and figure out a bigger issue later.
#3. You move on now 

When looking at the options I think #2 is out of the picture since the Vikings don't have a precedence in digging a deeper grave in these situations. Although you would get the cap hit down to $8M this season you only increase the cap hit and dead money in future years, which is a non-starter. I think they'd approach #1 first just to see where Barr is at but as mentioned his market value and cash value here is similar so Barr really has no reason to take this big discount people perceive he will. 

In the end I don't think the Vikings want to move on from Barr but may need to out of necessity. The good news is that I think you can likely trade him for a mid-round pick vs. a straight out release. If they can't, then I think he is a candidate for the post June-1 designation leaving $2.6M in dead money this year and $5.2M in 2022 when the cap hopefully rebounds a bit. As noted, this is what happens when you need to "fit" players into limited cap space. 

Welcome back Geoff, love your insight / posts

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I'm not convinced the $7.8M in dead money necessitates the Vikings holding onto him. It was all cash up front in the signing bonus that allowed them to lower the 2019/20 cap hits. So you probably have to really hold Barr's feet to the fire since he's not worth the yearly cash on his deal. His value right now is somewhere around $9.5 - 10M per season. 

Think of Barr this way. You paid him $25.1M in cash the past two season ($12.5M/yr) and haven't guaranteed him any additional cash. He's owed $12.3M in cash this upcoming season followed by $12.4M and $14.9M in 2022/23 respectively. We can just say that he isn't going to see the $14.9M in 2023 unless he becomes a drastically different player. The original contract structure makes this tricky where they took a discount on the cap hits makes this tough for the Vikings. On the open market Barr is worth $10ish/yr and if multiple teams had interest he may get back to his cash value of $12.4M in 2022 with added guarantees than he has in MN on his current contract. 

In hindsight this is honestly why you don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul against the cap since the Vikings are going to be stuck with 3 semi-poor options: 

#1. You re-do the entire contract and add years/guarantees to lower the cap hit now. Issue with this is that you are likely in the same spot as you are today a year or two from now. 
#2. You bonus restructure his deal to get cap now to about $8M now and figure out a bigger issue later.
#3. You move on now 

When looking at the options I think #2 is out of the picture since the Vikings don't have a precedence in digging a deeper grave in these situations. Although you would get the cap hit down to $8M this season you only increase the cap hit and dead money in future years, which is a non-starter. I think they'd approach #1 first just to see where Barr is at but as mentioned his market value and cash value here is similar so Barr really has no reason to take this big discount people perceive he will. 

In the end I don't think the Vikings want to move on from Barr but may need to out of necessity. The good news is that I think you can likely trade him for a mid-round pick vs. a straight out release. If they can't, then I think he is a candidate for the post June-1 designation leaving $2.6M in dead money this year and $5.2M in 2022 when the cap hopefully rebounds a bit. As noted, this is what happens when you need to "fit" players into limited cap space. 

Great breakdown. Does Eric Wilson factor into the Barr decision much? Wilson's tackling is being derided, but he was better in coverage and more of a splash player than Barr has been. I do think Zimmer prefers Barr (and Wilson is not his idea of an SLB), but it seems hard to keep him the way you laid it out. I guess the question is - can they let both of them leave? Seems like we'll just be crying about a decimated LB corps next year the way we did about the DBs and DL this year.

[Guest]

I have us keeping Barr after a restructure and letting Wilson hit the market. 

[Guest]

If we let go of Barr, I'll have to change my moniker. Hopefully we take a certain 3T from Bama.

[Guest]

I already tm'd Barrmore...

[Guest]

@Jor-El said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I'm not convinced the $7.8M in dead money necessitates the Vikings holding onto him. It was all cash up front in the signing bonus that allowed them to lower the 2019/20 cap hits. So you probably have to really hold Barr's feet to the fire since he's not worth the yearly cash on his deal. His value right now is somewhere around $9.5 - 10M per season. 

Think of Barr this way. You paid him $25.1M in cash the past two season ($12.5M/yr) and haven't guaranteed him any additional cash. He's owed $12.3M in cash this upcoming season followed by $12.4M and $14.9M in 2022/23 respectively. We can just say that he isn't going to see the $14.9M in 2023 unless he becomes a drastically different player. The original contract structure makes this tricky where they took a discount on the cap hits makes this tough for the Vikings. On the open market Barr is worth $10ish/yr and if multiple teams had interest he may get back to his cash value of $12.4M in 2022 with added guarantees than he has in MN on his current contract. 

In hindsight this is honestly why you don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul against the cap since the Vikings are going to be stuck with 3 semi-poor options: 

#1. You re-do the entire contract and add years/guarantees to lower the cap hit now. Issue with this is that you are likely in the same spot as you are today a year or two from now. 
#2. You bonus restructure his deal to get cap now to about $8M now and figure out a bigger issue later.
#3. You move on now 

When looking at the options I think #2 is out of the picture since the Vikings don't have a precedence in digging a deeper grave in these situations. Although you would get the cap hit down to $8M this season you only increase the cap hit and dead money in future years, which is a non-starter. I think they'd approach #1 first just to see where Barr is at but as mentioned his market value and cash value here is similar so Barr really has no reason to take this big discount people perceive he will. 

In the end I don't think the Vikings want to move on from Barr but may need to out of necessity. The good news is that I think you can likely trade him for a mid-round pick vs. a straight out release. If they can't, then I think he is a candidate for the post June-1 designation leaving $2.6M in dead money this year and $5.2M in 2022 when the cap hopefully rebounds a bit. As noted, this is what happens when you need to "fit" players into limited cap space. 

Great breakdown. Does Eric Wilson factor into the Barr decision much? Wilson's tackling is being derided, but he was better in coverage and more of a splash player than Barr has been. I do think Zimmer prefers Barr (and Wilson is not his idea of an SLB), but it seems hard to keep him the way you laid it out. I guess the question is - can they let both of them leave? Seems like we'll just be crying about a decimated LB corps next year the way we did about the DBs and DL this year.

Crazy enough I think its on the table for both to walk without an in-house replacement. I like both Barr and Wilson for very different reasons but neither is really the perfect one size fits all solution. Barr is much stronger in the run game and you need to dial protections against him in the pass rush. He's not this lethal pass rush option but he's good enough that he'll make you pay 1 on 1. Wilson is quick but doesn't bring the same level of proficiency there. In the passing game Wilson is more of the modern LB who can play the flat effectively and cover quite a bit of ground. The issue there is that he's not strong in the run game and he is a good but not great tackler. So if his biggest skill is lining him up 1x1 in space you can't really say you're going to win that matchup since Aaron Jones pretty much single handedly proved that was a bad idea. 

The Wilson and Barr decisions kind of go hand in hand. I think its a pipe dream to believe Wilson won't get paid. But if not I could see them viewing the savings as a reason to move on from Barr. You also have more of an ability to manipulate Wilson's cap hits so no matter what he'll be the more "cap friendly" option. But that doesn't mean he is still the best use of you money. 

My guess is they'll have to decide whether Barr on his current deal is the safer choice than rolling out a rookie. I just don't see them messing too much with Barr's contract because like I laid out above the only way to do that is to guarantee more money on a player you are already contemplating. 

[Guest]

@MaroonBells said:
I have us keeping Barr after a restructure and letting Wilson hit the market. 

I'll raise you one and say they probably keep Barr on his deal as is but let Wilson hit the market. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@MaroonBells said:
I have us keeping Barr after a restructure and letting Wilson hit the market. 

I'll raise you one and say they probably keep Barr on his deal as is but let Wilson hit the market. 

I have us restructuring deals for Barr, Harry, and Thielen. Just a couple mil for each. How else are we going to afford Sheldon Rankins and Lane Taylor? :-) I see them less as pay cuts and more as shifting salary to bonus. It's just me playing a little Robby B....one of these days I'll post it.