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The Minnesota Vikings reportedly "absolutely love" running back Dalvin Cook amid rumors about discussion of a lucrative, long-term contract extension.
Jay Glazer of The Athletic responded to a question Wednesday about whether the Vikings should sign Cook to a new deal or attempt to find a cheaper alternative for the future.
"Extension. Running backs are hard to do extensions with, and we've seen them not work out with guys in recent years," Glazer wrote. "Teams can see if they can get guys later in the draft, but I think Cook is special. When a team has someone who is different and special, he is a difference-maker. Plus, they absolutely love him there. They love the dude. I would give him an extension."
Cook is heading into the final season of his rookie contract, which includes a base salary of $1.3 million, per Spotrac.
In June, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the 24-year-old Florida State product wasn't going to take part in any team activities until he received a "reasonable" offer.
"He's out," a source told Schefter. "Without a reasonable extension, he will not be showing up for camp or beyond." It's unclear whether the "beyond" includes potentially sitting out regular-season games.
Cook initially sought a deal exceeding the $16 million annually Christian McCaffrey received in his new contract, but the Vikings' first proposal was less than $10 million, according to Courtney Cronin of ESPN. He'd "gladly take" an offer in the $13 million range.
In April, the 2019 Pro Bowl selection told Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press he wanted to stay with the franchise for the long haul.
"I definitely love Minnesota," he said. "I love everything the state has to bring. Being a kid, I was drafted from Miami, so I didn't know what I was getting myself into. I actually am happy where I'm at, and I would like to be in Minnesota long term."
Cook, who made just 15 total appearances over his first two NFL seasons because of injuries, enjoyed a breakout season last year. He rushed for 1,135 yards on 250 carries (4.5 per carry) with 13 touchdowns and caught 53 passes for 519 yards. His 1,654 yards from scrimmage ranked seventh in the NFL.
His projected $1.3 million in total cash for 2020 ranks 48th among running backs, while an extension worth $13 million would skyrocket him up to fourth on the list, according to Spotrac.
Alexander Mattison, a third-round pick in 2019, would be in line to take over as the Vikings' starter if Cook's holdout extends into the regular season. Ameer Abdullah and Mike Boone could also see a significant uptick in playing time under that scenario.
Minnesota is scheduled to open the campaign Sept. 13 against the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2899...ion-rumors
I don't think there's ever been any doubt about the mutual affection for each party for the other, its the contract amount. Minnesota is going to have to swallow hard and pony up, thats the bottom line. He's a special talent.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
I don't think there's ever been any doubt about the mutual affection for each party for the other, its the contract amount. Minnesota is going to have to swallow hard and pony up, thats the bottom line. He's a special talent.
special talent with a huge asterisk, that stat about only playing in 15 of his potentially first 32 games and then being at a position that traditionally burns out fast, even by NFL standards for a career, its a huge risk to make him any big money offers that arent loaded with incentives.
Arif Hasan mailbag question:
What do you think is the highest the Vikings should go for Dalvin Cook? — Kevin O.
I’ve made my thoughts fairly clear on running back value, but in a world where my only option was to find a way to offer Dalvin Cook fair value for a deal, I wouldn’t go higher than $6 million a year, where I think elite running back value tops out.
I’m not particularly keen on valuing Cook like an elite running back because of his health concerns and the additional value other backs like Elliot (as a pass protector) and Christian McCaffrey (as a pass catcher) provide outside of their running capability.
But if I’m a little too conservative and I think the “true value” of an elite running back is actually higher, perhaps near $8 million a year, then $6 million for Cook would be appropriate.
I know that generally seems wildly out of line with what happens to running back value in the open market, but consider every running back who signed a deal with an average value worth more than four percent of that year’s cap (about $7.9 million in 2020) going back to 2016:
There has been one first-team All-Pro and three Pro Bowl appearances from the 17 years of running back play generated by those contracts, where they’ve averaged 55.8 rushing yards per game and 76.3 yards from scrimmage per game, earning 3.88 yards per carry.
That’s not even the most dire part of it, however — many of these running backs missed time due to underperformance or injury. Using the amount of functionally guaranteed years these backs had in their contracts, we can see how many games teams expected these players to play, which adds up to 352 to date (with some players, like Elliott, having more still left to play). They played 222 of those games, or 10 games of a 16-game season.
That means teams paid for three Pro Bowl appearances out of 23 contract years and 35.2 rushing yards and 48.1 yards from scrimmage per contract game. In fact, only four of those years saw running backs generate more than 4.34 yards per carry — the league average. The other 19 years were either below-average or absent.
Two of the teams that earned Pro Bowl performances still ended up regretting the contract, with both Miller and Gurley cut prematurely with uneven seasons otherwise.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the only team that likely is happy with the contract they’ve signed with a running back is also the team that has only had one year of play from their back. Otherwise, even if we go back to Jamaal Charles’ extension in 2014 (skipping over DeMarco Murray’s disastrous signing with Philadelphia for 2015 in the process), we don’t see good returns.
While the 2014 season was fine — 5.0 yards per carry but only on 206 carries for 68.9 rush yards a game — the 2015 season was guaranteed and they earned 364 yards out of them.
So a known injury risk like Cook? I’d offer less than half of what elite backs are making.
theathletic.com/1901939/2020/06/30/vikings-mailbag-cam-vs-kirk-dalvins-contract-breakout-candidates-and-more/
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ StickyBun said:
I don't think there's ever been any doubt about the mutual affection for each party for the other, its the contract amount. Minnesota is going to have to swallow hard and pony up, thats the bottom line. He's a special talent.
special talent with a huge asterisk, that stat about only playing in 15 of his potentially first 32 games and then being at a position that traditionally burns out fast, even by NFL standards for a career, its a huge risk to make him any big money offers that arent loaded with incentives.
I hear what you are saying and it has sound logic to it. My opinion is he's a special talent, a game changer. Its what you try and draft for at the position and they hit a home run with Cook. As a NFL GM, you take risks all the time and if signing him is one of those, I think you error on the side of a guy that is a tremendous playmaker. JMO.
Quote: @comet52 said:
Arif Hasan mailbag question:
What do you think is the highest the Vikings should go for Dalvin Cook? — Kevin O.
I’ve made my thoughts fairly clear on running back value, but in a world where my only option was to find a way to offer Dalvin Cook fair value for a deal, I wouldn’t go higher than $6 million a year, where I think elite running back value tops out.
I’m not particularly keen on valuing Cook like an elite running back because of his health concerns and the additional value other backs like Elliot (as a pass protector) and Christian McCaffrey (as a pass catcher) provide outside of their running capability.
But if I’m a little too conservative and I think the “true value” of an elite running back is actually higher, perhaps near $8 million a year, then $6 million for Cook would be appropriate.
I know that generally seems wildly out of line with what happens to running back value in the open market, but consider every running back who signed a deal with an average value worth more than four percent of that year’s cap (about $7.9 million in 2020) going back to 2016:
There has been one first-team All-Pro and three Pro Bowl appearances from the 17 years of running back play generated by those contracts, where they’ve averaged 55.8 rushing yards per game and 76.3 yards from scrimmage per game, earning 3.88 yards per carry.
That’s not even the most dire part of it, however — many of these running backs missed time due to underperformance or injury. Using the amount of functionally guaranteed years these backs had in their contracts, we can see how many games teams expected these players to play, which adds up to 352 to date (with some players, like Elliott, having more still left to play). They played 222 of those games, or 10 games of a 16-game season.
That means teams paid for three Pro Bowl appearances out of 23 contract years and 35.2 rushing yards and 48.1 yards from scrimmage per contract game. In fact, only four of those years saw running backs generate more than 4.34 yards per carry — the league average. The other 19 years were either below-average or absent.
Two of the teams that earned Pro Bowl performances still ended up regretting the contract, with both Miller and Gurley cut prematurely with uneven seasons otherwise.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the only team that likely is happy with the contract they’ve signed with a running back is also the team that has only had one year of play from their back. Otherwise, even if we go back to Jamaal Charles’ extension in 2014 (skipping over DeMarco Murray’s disastrous signing with Philadelphia for 2015 in the process), we don’t see good returns.
While the 2014 season was fine — 5.0 yards per carry but only on 206 carries for 68.9 rush yards a game — the 2015 season was guaranteed and they earned 364 yards out of them.
So a known injury risk like Cook? I’d offer less than half of what elite backs are making.
theathletic.com/1901939/2020/06/30/vikings-mailbag-cam-vs-kirk-dalvins-contract-breakout-candidates-and-more/
Sorry, but this is just dumb by Arif. Offer less than half??? Ridiculous.
Wonder if Arif has ever written less that two sentences to anything, ever...
less than 1/2 is stoopid.
at 13 million a year or more, how much more does Cook help the O vs what we could get from Mattison? We arent going to argue that he doesnt make the O better, but how much better and is it worth the extra cap money, especially on a guy with health concerns.
Cook turns 25 in Aug.
He played 3 years and no red shirt at FSU.
Low miles.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
at 13 million a year or more, how much more does Cook help the O vs what we could get from Mattison? We arent going to argue that he doesnt make the O better, but how much better and is it worth the extra cap money, especially on a guy with health concerns.
Mattison is a good looking back, but he's not on Cook's level. I know everyone knows that, but I think people underestimate just how much of a drop off there would be.
And Cook doesn't have "health concerns." He has an injury history. There's a difference. You would hope this might keep his cost down, but it rarely does. I think it's because FO's know that all backs suffer injuries and nobody can predict when, or to whom, they will happen. And they even out over time. It's just as likely that CMac misses games due to injury as it is Cook. In fact, the law of averages would probably favor Cook.
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