![[Image: Contextual-Scores-James-Lynch.png]](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/05/06140942/Contextual-Scores-James-Lynch.png)
Lynch’s production scores are put in the context of college edge defenders who were projected to potentially play inside. The sample is small, so it’s expanded to include 2019 as well, meaning that players like Rashan Gary, L.J. Collier, Charles Omenihu and Zach Allen are included alongside Lynch, A.J. Epenesa, Khalil Davis and Larrell Murchison.
Those production scores are incredibly impressive. Pressure production at that rate is remarkable at any age, but with Lynch set to play his entire first NFL season before he turns 22, he establishes himself as one of the most productive players the Vikings have drafted in the past few years. His ability to play against players two or three years older than him and still be the dominant defensive force in the Big 12 speaks well to his overall capability.
Despite high tackle-for-loss production, his ability in the run game wasn’t extraordinary — on a per-run basis, he didn’t generate many stops. He might have made up for it with his discipline in the run game, however — his high bounce rate tells us that he redirects backs running into his lane, helping teammates generate tackles. That’s a big part of the reason offenses couldn’t generate many positive plays headed in his direction.
Compared to players that moved inside from their original college spot into the NFL, he’s been a remarkable player. That said, his production on third down is worrisome — particularly so given that he kicked inside on third down fairly often for Baylor, his expected role with the Vikings.
As a result, he’s not a completely clean evaluation. The snaps that most closely resemble his projected role in the NFL don’t really look very good. On the other hand, everything else he does — which constitutes a majority of his snaps in college, as well as what he was directly coached to do — all look extremely optimistic.
Athletically, he looks like quite a good prospect. The workouts he performs at a below-average level are ones that matter less to the position — the bench and vertical aren’t as crucial as the three-cone and broad jump for pass-rushing tackles. With his great scores there, along with a great score in the 20-yard split, he projects as a fantastic prospect for the under-tackle position next to the nose.
As for his NFL comparables, enough players switched from an edge role in college to an interior role in the NFL to provide a good basis for reasonable projection for Lynch based on similar players.
We don’t have Pro Football Focus profiles for a good chunk of the comparable players who have switched from the edge in college to the interior in the NFL, which would give us an excellent view of the players that struggled on the interior in college but nevertheless performed well as defensive linemen.
As it is, we have PFF data for Jonathan Allen, who performed even better on the inside in college than he did on the edge, where he was still remarkable. Closer to Lynch is Kingsley Keke, a 2019 fifth-round pick for the Green Bay Packers, who struggled on the inside in college. He wasn’t particularly remarkable on the outside, however, primarily working as a run defender who set the edge but didn’t generate much pressure.
Without that context available, the prospects for Lynch look good. He’s more productive than any of his athletic comparables. While one can expect a first-round pick like Allen to perform at the NFL level, it’s heartening to see fellow fifth-round pick Dean Lowry performing at an above-average level for an interior defender. Billy Winn also outperformed expectations as an undrafted free agent, though the Vikings will expect more from Lynch given their investment in him.
Overall, this looks great — Lynch was more productive in college than any of his closest athletic comparisons, with only Allen coming close. Allen has Lynch from a frame perspective given his length, but Lynch outperforms him athletically in most dimensions, and at a heavier weight.
