Quote: @"BarrNone55" said:
Did you leave Sharpe out of the WR room on purpose?
No, sigh. That is what happens when you type it up in about 10 minutes lol.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
I'm not a fan of trading back. I think at 22 you are going to have a top tier WR prospect fall in your lap or at least in range to trade up a bit to land them. The Vikings can not allow teams to stack the box against Cook and make us one dimensional without threatening them on the outside. Ruggs and/or Jefferson should both be in play if all we have to do is jump Philly picking in front of us.
I don't see tackle being as big of a need for us as the interior where we need two starters at both guard positions. I don't like trying to shift Reiff inside at this point in his career and playing musical chairs along the offensive line. We are solid at both tackle spots and center. Upgraded guard play is sorely needed. There are some players in the second and third rounds that can fill those spots.
I love rolling the dice on Muti at that point and think Gilman is a feisty kid that will compete on special teams and can make the roster
It really depends how the board falls. In my last mock I suggested a trade-up is definitely in play from #22 as well. If one of Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs makes it to say 14, you have to watch them moving up. I don't personally think they'd do it for Jefferson, who I have heard they aren't as high on (but it is lying season). But aside from WR there are about 15 blue-chip prospects in this class and if you can grab one at the expense of using a 3rd round pick to move up, its a good way to allocate your assets.
The reason tackle ends up being a need in my opinion is that you don't "need" a OT now, but you're proactively drafting your future at the position and still can get some use out of Reiff. If not, you're now saving $10+M against this years cap that'll roll over into next year (net savings of $20+M on 2021's cap). You're playing with fire if your eventual plan is to move on from Reiff next season and you have no viable future in the pipeline.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
Man, I watched way too many videos and podcasts last weekend. I came away with 2 observations: from #20 to #60 you're picking the same level of talent and it just depends on what flavor and scheme fit you like. Trading back to maximize what looks like the 'sweet spot' in this Draft is smart thinking.
My other realization is that while everyone agrees this is a historic WR Class, nobody agrees on much else past Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs. And not necessarily even in that order.
I am distinctly not a fan of Hamler. Talk about a kid that needed a Pro Day. Personally don't like him but also don't think you need to pick him at 58. He'll be available much later than that, IMO. I've seen a couple of reviews mock him higher and tons that mock him lower or much lower. So this is my big quibble with an otherwise killer mock.
Madubuike falls that far? Maybe. Again, picks twenty through sixty are about scheme fit and personal opinion as there isn't much separating anyone talent-wise. Muti is a freaking Destroyer. I'd go bonkers if he made it to the 5th. All the medicals reportedly check out, so why not pull the trigger?
My issue with the DE pick is that you're basically presupposing Minnesota adds a Tier 3 FA. While it is certainly true that Dre & Zimmer have crushed it in the late Rounds not one single guy made an impact as a Rookie. And why would you expect raw, freak athletes from the late Rounds or UDFA to do so?
Today Minnesota has Odenigbo, Zettel, and Hunter on their Roster. Zettel seems like a situational pass rusher, not a guy who is going to consistently spell Ifeadi. But even if he is who is going to spell Hunter? Not a late-round kid.
I don't really want to hear about Herc or Holmes or anyone else that hasn't approached Weatherly or Odenigbo in terms of snaps. Herc is a nice story that may get better. Holmes is a bust. Period. There's simply nothing realistically projectable on the Roster at DE right now. Man, if either Bower or Aruna had panned out this wouldn't even be a conversation.
Overall, fantastic job and thanks as always!
I like your call out on the DE's. Its a catch-22. Although we could use production there isn't great value where the Vikings are sitting in round 1 and after that everyone has some developmental hurdles to overcome. The DT class runs a bit deeper and you'll likely get more year 1 production. The big question is how much will they come off their athletic thresholds and like Epenesa. He fits what they want to do schematically. The film is also awesome and his power is a true trump card. If he is on the board he may end up being their round 1 selection for both DE and DT.
Good draft. There isn't a player here I don't like. Just some random thoughts...
I know there's a lot of talk about Johnson going in the 1st round but I think the surgery drops him to the 2nd. But he's a great fit for the Vikings.
I see Hamler as the end of that 2nd tier of receivers. You kinda hope for more than that, but that's one hell of a player to be getting in the 50s.
Hard to see Muti dropping that far, but you never know what teams are going to think about several foot injuries.
I have Gilman in all my mocks, but I think he goes two or three rounds ahead of that. Love that you drafted 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 CBs and 2 Safeties.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
Good draft. There isn't a player here I don't like. Just some random thoughts...
I know there's a lot of talk about Johnson going in the 1st round but I think the surgery drops him to the 2nd. But he's a great fit for the Vikings.
I see Hamler as the end of that 2nd tier of receivers. You kinda hope for more than that, but that's one hell of a player to be getting in the 50s.
Hard to see Muti dropping that far, but you never know what teams are going to think about several foot injuries.
I have Gilman in all my mocks, but I think he goes two or three rounds ahead of that. Love that you drafted 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 CBs and 2 Safeties.
Agree with all of that. When it comes to CB in round 1 I think the biggest question will be who is off the board by the time #22 rolls around. This is speculation but any of Gladney, Johnson, Fulton likely fills their need. Spielman has shown that he'd rather trade back and get the last of the three on the board than be on the front end of that run. So trading down into the early 2nd and grabbing one of those guys has decent odds.
You read my mind on Hamler. He's not perfect by any means but definitely has value in the 50's. No matter which WR it is I think waiting until round 2 will serve them well. The WR hungry teams in round 1 won't go WR back to back so that will allow some player to trickle down the board. Its kind of inevitable in my mind.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ supafreak84 said:
I'm not a fan of trading back. I think at 22 you are going to have a top tier WR prospect fall in your lap or at least in range to trade up a bit to land them. The Vikings can not allow teams to stack the box against Cook and make us one dimensional without threatening them on the outside. Ruggs and/or Jefferson should both be in play if all we have to do is jump Philly picking in front of us.
I don't see tackle being as big of a need for us as the interior where we need two starters at both guard positions. I don't like trying to shift Reiff inside at this point in his career and playing musical chairs along the offensive line. We are solid at both tackle spots and center. Upgraded guard play is sorely needed. There are some players in the second and third rounds that can fill those spots.
I love rolling the dice on Muti at that point and think Gilman is a feisty kid that will compete on special teams and can make the roster
It really depends how the board falls. In my last mock I suggested a trade-up is definitely in play from #22 as well. If one of Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs makes it to say 14, you have to watch them moving up. I don't personally think they'd do it for Jefferson, who I have heard they aren't as high on (but it is lying season). But aside from WR there are about 15 blue-chip prospects in this class and if you can grab one at the expense of using a 3rd round pick to move up, its a good way to allocate your assets.
The reason tackle ends up being a need in my opinion is that you don't "need" a OT now, but you're proactively drafting your future at the position and still can get some use out of Reiff. If not, you're now saving $10+M against this years cap that'll roll over into next year (net savings of $20+M on 2021's cap). You're playing with fire if your eventual plan is to move on from Reiff next season and you have no viable future in the pipeline.
I agree there is some depth at the position, but to me the top 4 guys (including Jefferson) are a rung above the rest and I'd feel better landing one of them then trading back and rolling the dice on Hamler or someone in that range replacing what Diggs brought to the table.
I also agree it's always nice to have quality backups at every position marinating to start, but that's just not reality in today's NFL where teams always rely on rookies starting and producing. I think in that instance at worst case you can hope Udoh continues to developed at RT with the potential of swinging O'Neill to the left side. For purposes of this draft though we need to upgrade both guard spots and that should be the priority
Really nice draft, would be happy if this shook out. I do notice you are really precisely filling needs in the first 3 rounds and projecting a lot of immediate contributors, though not necessarily starters.
I agree with the concerns at WR, especially Hodgins - great kid, will always be in traffic in the NFL. I am not so down on Hamler, because Spielman has been attracted to blazing speed for a long time and Cousins has done well when he had a field-stretching deep threat. FSU, you didn't really explain your concerns - too many drops would be my biggest, but I'm interested in yours.
But, I've gotta play Mythbuster a bit. Geoff: "Name a better duo than the MN Vikings coaching staff and late round developmental pass rushers." IDK, maybe tribal casinos and '80s rockers you thought were long retired? Because those happen a lot but are only occasionally worthwhile. Some of you talk like we have been repeatedly pulling All-Pros out of the last few rounds of the draft, to the point we can almost bank on it. Well, who are they?
2018 Ade Aruna Waived, zero NFL stats2017 Ifeadi Odenigbo Bounced between us, Browns, and Cards for 2 years then had 7 sacks last year
2016 Stephen Weatherly Had a nice 2018 (3 sacks), then little in 2019 and we let him leave
2015 BJ Dubose We waived him 5 times within 20 months, kind of impressive
I can leave Trevor Guyton and D'Aundre Reed off the list since they pre-date Zimmer. But by the same token, we can't pull up the names of Everson Griffen and Brian Robison - and I wouldn't call 4th round selections, both in the top 102 picks, "late round", and definitely not 3rd-rounder Danielle Hunter.
Maybe Odenigbo is about to emerge as a dominant DE - but he might also have a lot less success when asked to play full time and slip back as Weatherly did. Even if he becomes a good starter, let's be realistic: 7th round DE picks by the Vikings are not some reliable sack production factory.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
Really nice draft, would be happy if this shook out. I do notice you are really precisely filling needs in the first 3 rounds and projecting a lot of immediate contributors, though not necessarily starters.
I agree with the concerns at WR, especially Hodgins - great kid, will always be in traffic in the NFL. I am not so down on Hamler, because Spielman has been attracted to blazing speed for a long time and Cousins has done well when he had a field-stretching deep threat. FSU, you didn't really explain your concerns - too many drops would be my biggest, but I'm interested in yours.
But, I've gotta play Mythbuster a bit. Geoff: "Name a better duo than the MN Vikings coaching staff and late round developmental pass rushers." IDK, maybe tribal casinos and '80s rockers you thought were long retired? Because those happen a lot but are only occasionally worthwhile. Some of you talk like we have been repeatedly pulling All-Pros out of the last few rounds of the draft, to the point we can almost bank on it. Well, who are they?
2018 Ade Aruna Waived, zero NFL stats2017 Ifeadi Odenigbo Bounced between us, Browns, and Cards for 2 years then had 7 sacks last year
2016 Stephen Weatherly Had a nice 2018 (3 sacks), then little in 2019 and we let him leave
2015 BJ Dubose We waived him 5 times within 20 months, kind of impressive
I can leave Trevor Guyton and D'Aundre Reed off the list since they pre-date Zimmer. But by the same token, we can't pull up the names of Everson Griffen and Brian Robison - and I wouldn't call 4th round selections, both in the top 102 picks, "late round", and definitely not 3rd-rounder Danielle Hunter.
Maybe Odenigbo is about to emerge as a dominant DE - but he might also have a lot less success when asked to play full time and slip back as Weatherly did. Even if he becomes a good starter, let's be realistic: 7th round DE picks by the Vikings are not some reliable sack production factory.
I think maybe my comment on the late round pass rushers is being taken out of context a little bit. All of your points are valid. I look at it more from a return on investment point of view. Overall they've drafted in the 7th round better than most teams. I would say that the expectation is that you're lucky if a 7th round draft pick or UDFA makes the roster, let along plays out their entire rookie contract. To to give a broader scope lets look at 7th round picks across the NFCN the past 3 years:
2019:
Viking- Kris Boyd, Dillon Mitchell, Olabisi Johnson, Austin Cutting
Packers - Ty Summers
Bears - Kerrith Whythe, Stephen Denmak
Lions - Isaac Nauta, P.J. Johnson
2018:
Viking- Devante Downs
Packers - James Looney, Hunter Bradley, Kendall Donerson
Bears - Javon Wims
Lions - Nick Bawden
2017:
Viking- Ifeadi Odenigbo, Stacy Coley, Elijah Lee, Jack Tocho
Packers - Devante Mays, Malachi Dupre
Bears - None
Lions - Pat O'Connor
In all the Vikings have gotten moderate production out of 4 out of their 9 selections with Lee making it on other teams rosters (I'll consider that a miss). Call it a 44% rate of return. The rest of the NFC north is a combined 2 for 13 for a 15% hit rate.
So although they are not starts, there is something there.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
So although they are not starts, there is something there.
And I can agree with that, definitely. As you said, you're lucky if a 7th round pick even makes the roster. Every draft pick is a gamble - and I would say those in the last couple rounds are more lottery tickets than investments.
But many people - definitely more than you - like to build up the idea of the Vikings coaches being able to spin straw into gold, and it's an unsupported myth.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
So although they are not starts, there is something there.
And I can agree with that, definitely. As you said, you're lucky if a 7th round pick even makes the roster. Every draft pick is a gamble - and I would say those in the last couple rounds are more lottery tickets than investments.
But many people - definitely more than you - like to build up the idea of the Vikings coaches being able to spin straw into gold, and it's an unsupported myth.
Agree. I also don't think its solely the work of the coaching staff either. The Vikings use analytics (especially in the late rounds) to identity which players are more likely to succeed (stick on a roster). They seem to have developed/refined thresholds that actually work. So they're bringing a product to the coaching staff that at least has a fighting chance.
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