The Demise of the Defense?

[FSUVike]

I say no. And here's why. At it's height Zimmer's squad was at or near the top in Points Allowed and 3rd Down conversion percentage. And good at sacks. And against the run. But it wasn't ballhawking.

With below Replacement Player level play from Rhodes and Waynes and League Average play from Shamar. With meh play from Dime DBs and Linval Joseph. With droughts between productivity from Griff. Guess what?

Still finished 5th in points allowed. And that included a game where only the 2nd and 3rd stringers played. 5th! There are plenty of other stats that you can argue in either direction to make a point about whether there's hope for the Defensive side of the ball or not. But I want to hit you with my favorite one. Fourth in Turnovers generated! Fourth!

Folks, it wasn't Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Linval Joseph or any of the other potential departees generating those TOs. It was Harris, whom I firmly believe they will re-sign. And Hunter. And Ogdenibo. And Kendricks.

Ifeadi and Weatherly will be greater than Everson. And yes, I think Minnesota retains him as well. They've done too good a job of developing late round and UDFAS lately to let two of their poster boys for that strategy go. 

Hughes and a street FA won't be any worse than Rhodes and Waynes, which is amazing to say and why Gray had to go. Equally as bad? Probably. That's why Zimmer has dipped so heavily into Zone + Man mixed looks. Sure, Jimmy G and his barely above average WRs torched the Vikings CBs. But the Defense left a few potential Turnovers on the field. And had to play Sendejo at Slot CB. Oh, and the Offense sucked out loud.

I hate the Bend but Don't Break Defense. And relying on Zone instead of sticky Man Coverage. And being overly reliant on pressure on the QB from the Front Four only. Why? Because there was waaaaay too much capital spent on that side of the ball to play so passively. Unfortunately, much of that capital has now depreciated. Significantly.

But that BBDB style and Zone looks is pretty effective at forcing long drives that gives your playmakers chances to flash. Minnesota tied with that killer 9ers pass rush for sacks. Losing Griff and Joseph isn't going to hurt that production. A high Draft Pick or a Tier 2 FA should produce better pass pressure than Shamar. He was absolutely terrible in that part of the game. Shit, even Watts outdid him in far fewer snaps. And the combo of All Vowels and Weatherly should at least match Griff.

Get Mike an aging vet like Joseph at CB opposite Hughes. Or a guy that hasn't lived up to the hype like Roby. That combination would have to be near historically awful to play worse than Xavier and Trae. With Zone and Man looks and ballhawks like Harris, Smith and Kendricks the Corners don't need to be anything other than average. Just like the Saints, Chiefs, Hags, and Eagles. Really can't say the Titans or Texans have intimidating CBs either. San Francisco basically only has Sherman and a guy who doesn't get picked on more because of their Defensive Line and excellent cover LBs.

My point here is that dominant Corner play didn't give Mike an Elite Defense. But terrible Corner play didn't make it an average one either.  So there's hope. Yes, Time of Possession will continue to suffer. But this is becoming a more balanced overall team. In general, they can run and pass better than any team Zimmer has had before. Top 10 overall. And poised to get better.

I think a lot of you underestimate how much a Below Replacement Level Player affects the Offensive Line more than any other position besides Quarterback. Josh Kline is a master class in how. He's basically League Average. To our eyes he's practically All Pro. And that's because Remmers was Below Replacement Level. Compton was too. And guess what? So is Elflein. Whiffs against speed. Literally knocked on his ass by power. Missed reaches on pulls. Penalties. Penalties. Penalties. He was a one man drive wrecking crew. Reiff wasn't exactly lighting it up either.

And yet this Offense that was so maligned so often here was Top 10 in scoring. With a Rookie Center who got progressively better during the season. Without it's best WR for most of the year. Without in-game adjustments from the first time OC. And Rookies playing big minutes at TE and WR and RB2.

The Offensive Line is like a set of teeth. You can have some yellow ones and still have a good smile. You can't have a hole in one of your incisors and still have that smile. And a bad molar next to that hole doesn't help. Minnesota will spend an early pick on the Line. That alone will replace the missing tooth. They may even do more. If neither Reiff not Elflein are Starters this group will improve by a greater measure than they did from 2018. Plus another year in the system for O'Neill, Kline, Bradbury, Samia, Udoh, Dozier and Collins.

Logic dictates that with a few tweaks the Defense will remain good enough. And with capital spent on the Offensive Line that side of the ball will take another leap. And that's what rooting for the Vikings is, isn't it? A leap? Consider me faithfully leaping into next year's team.

[Guest]

Always enjoy your insights FSU.

[Guest]

I like your optimism,  I dont share it right now,  but I certainly acknowledge and appreciate it.

[Guest]

Solid logic...

Good post OP. 

You'd have thought the team finished with 6 wins with what fans are articulating how they feel these days.

Out of staters forget the SB for the midwest is when GB and MN play. A sweep? Heresy! 

The demise of the db's is mind-blowing, but it is what it is. They're some nice pieces to build around here in MN still. 

We'll see how effective the front office and coaches are in taking this team from good to great.

This team harkens me back to about 95/96/97 -- good Vikings teams that didn't become a great till 98. Or Chilly before Favre too. 

[Guest]

Great post, should be submitted as an article. 

I'm not certain that we need to invest even Tier 2 level dollars on a CB, assuming we 're-up Alexander. Dialing back a bit on the complexity of Zim's concepts might get better production out of guys like Hill and Boyd. With Harrison and Ant-Man™ over the top, CBs do not have to be world betters.

The thing that will advance the D more than anything is a disruptive 3T. Much like having a rotation of Weatherly/Odenigbo, Johnson/Watts could be the combo to man the 3T. It could be good, but definitely not great pairing. Watts just doesn't have an explosive first step to be great. Did another simulation and it had Kinlaw make it to #25, but I just don't think that happens IRL. If we are going to cover for new corners, we need consistent pressure up the middle.

[Guest]

Nicely written, FSU.  I feel way better about the team this off season than l did after the 2018 year.  Hopefully they keep trending up.

[Guest]

Good stuff.

[Guest]

FSU, great logic and as others said, I'm glad you're optimistic. As we have discussed elsewhere, I am far more dubious - not about your reasoning but whether our coach and GM see it your way.
You said, "I think a lot of you underestimate how much a Below
Replacement Level Player affects the Offensive Line more than any other
position". The problem isn't that WE underestimate it - Spielman has for the past decade!! He's the guy who thought Compton and Clemmings and Charlie Johnson and many others would be good enough even though they were below league average, or that we could count on players coming back from injury to step into the line back at full strength, or unproven late-round picks to become starters.

And, "Get Mike an aging vet like Joseph at CB opposite Hughes. Or a guy that hasn't lived up to the hype like Roby." OK - and when has the team done something like that, a "reclamation project" to fill a defensive need? Michael Griffin? Datone Jones? Emmanuel Lamur? Taylor Mays? Sheldon Richardson (though at $11M he didn't fit that profile exactly)? This team does it rarely and it has never worked, because players seem to need 2 years of learning before they can do well in Zimmer's scheme, and I think he knows it and probably also knows he needs to get them young, not after someone else has coached them for their entire pro career.
I always enjoy your posts but I think you're playing, "If I Ran The Vikings", and it's ultimately no different than someone saying, "The Vikings can win the Super Bowl next year by signing Cam Newton and trading Kirk Cousins and switching to a 3-4..." It might work - but this team isn't going to do that.
History tells me that Zimmer sees 8 big personnel question marks on his defense and will be banging the table to draft defense defense defense, maybe even trade Diggs for a pick or a young player. So it will be the opposite of your prescription: the defense getting reinforced with top picks and the offense getting reclamation projects. After all, the offense improved (which will look better the further we get from the games and just see stats) and the defense dipped. This team will also have to deal with the temptation to give $20M a year to Dalvin Cook. He's great, but IMO "running back" is a synonym for "injury prone" and a bad investment.

[Guest]

Terrance Newman was a reclamation project, Jor El. Linval Joseph was a Tier 2 FA. Stephens was a Tier 3 FA. So was Sendejo. There was a street FA playing Dime in the first Green Bay game. Hill has been productive as an UDFA. He doubtlessly would have gotten more playing time if not for the lengthy suspension. They've been bringing Boyd along slowly. I think they see some things they like there.

If BPA at 25 is CB you don't force the O-Line pick. This is a good Draft in the first few Rounds for Guards. The 1st will be Tackle heavy but the 2nd and 3rd are the value spot for OGs.

But it's also another bumper crop for Corners. If Rick and Gary and Rick and Klint fall in love with my guy Mekhi Becton, Zimmer can still get a plug and play kid in the 2nd or 3rd.

Recent history has Minnesota spending a 3rd, 2nd and 1st on the Line in consecutive years. And yet everyone, including the FO, can tell it's still not fixed enough to maximize Cousins' talents. Elf is a BUST. Even a 3rd Round pick or another Kline type signing will be an instant upgrade. 

The other thing to consider here is Coaching. They identified Kline, whom NE turned loose then had maybe his worst season ever his final year in Tennessee when they switched systems. Look how Rick and Gary coached him up. And he was signed late in FA. Like nobody else was taking a run at this guy. Dozier was a lottery ticket signing. Really no different than a 7th Round pick type of flyer. He was an adequate fill-in. O'Neill took the next step forward. Bradbury got better as the season progressed.

But they couldn't fix Elf's struggles against BOTH speed AND power. Or Reiff's issue with speed.

Given the evidence of what they've done so far it is easy to project them replicating last offseason by upgrading the Left Side. Be it with a high or mid-round pick or a canny FA signing. Scherff is a pipedream. If he was somehow signed it would smack of 'fighting to keep my job' by Rick because it would require letting go of both the obvious targets and not re-signing Ant Harris.

So it's not actually me playing armchair GM. It's me prognosticating from recent facts. If anything, given the recent attention to the Offense 2 offseason in a row, it's you who's reaching by predicting Zimmer will force a Defense early and often approach to the Draft. And even if he does, and gets his way, there is still evidence that they can improve the Line just by repeating last offseason. 

[Guest]

Admittedly the last 3 years have shown more attention to the OL, but those were each following a season where the offense was clearly the weak unit and the defense very strong. That narrative has switched, so I expect the attention to OL (which always seemed given grudgingly) to end. You rightly cite coaching improvements, but that can only do so much if the basic talent is weak. I fear that Rick and Mike feel Kubiak and Dennison can turn poor talent  into quality performance - ZBS saves the world!
I'll accept Joseph as a bit of a reclamation, but he wasn't a cheap one - he was our main FA spending that year. Newman was picked initially by Zimmer and followed him around to Cincinatti and here, and Stephen was a Zimmer player that just came back. I don't see anyone - with the possible exception of Joseph - who fits the bill of "veteran brought in cheap and improved by Zimmer"...and no likelihood of any contributing immediately.
Zimmer has a fine defensive mind but he reminds me of the old Steve Martin routine, "How to Be a Millionaire: Step 1, get a million dollars." I think the Vikings said, "Mike can you give us a great defense?" and he said, "Sure! Just get me a bunch of great defensive players to start with."
We'll see what they do. Always fun to kick around.