Purple opens at -4.0 vs Cheese

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@HappyViking said:

Seems strange that a 1st place team isn't favored.  I don't see this is an easy cake walk game for the Vikes.  I'm not even certain the Vikes can win considering how the pass D has been, and we're missing our top two RBs.  If the Vikes can't get the running game going, that works well for the Packers.
Maybe I'm overestimating the Packers?

Experts are going by the fact the Vikings beat the Chargers and the Packers lost to them.  Plus, they throw in our "Home Field Advantage".  For me, I am not totally convinced we got this game won regardless of what the point spread is or who the experts picked to win.
The next two games are scary...with the shaky pass defense giving up lots of big plays on 3rd down and with Rodgers at the helm...to many uncertainties for failure.  Hell, the Bears backup quarterback beat us last game and without Hicks in the middle of their defensive line.
We can only hope and pray things fall the Vikings' way during the last 2 games.

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@HappyViking said:

Seems strange that a 1st place team isn't favored.  I don't see this is an easy cake walk game for the Vikes.  I'm not even certain the Vikes can win considering how the pass D has been, and we're missing our top two RBs.  If the Vikes can't get the running game going, that works well for the Packers.
Maybe I'm overestimating the Packers?

I think so. Bottom third offense. Bottom third defense. Ridiculous point differential--won games by a few and lost them by a lot.  This is not an 11-3 team. It's more like a 9-5 team. Rodgers has been very inconsistent this year--at times just awful. And Zimmer always seems to frustrate him a bit. They have a couple good weapons in Jones and Adams, but instead of putting Rhodes on Adams, we'll likely bracket him this time and use Kendricks to keep an eye on Jones.  Their secondary is solid and their pass rush is good with the Smith bros on the edge but they're not as good as Ingram and Bosa. Clark is a handful in the middle but Bradbury is playing better every week. Sure, I wish we had Cook and Mattison in this, but don't sleep on Boone. I think after Monday night he'll be the story of week 16 in the NFL. Sure, anything can happen in a divisional game, but the Vikings are the better team and they're playing in the Bank, where the Packers have never won. I like the Vikings to win easy, 

One very interesting factoid I heard this week that is very easy to believe after that week 2 game: Through 15 weeks, the Packers offense on their opening script--the first 25 plays--is 1st in the NFL. After the opening script, it ranks near the bottom. 

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Vikings now at -5.5

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@MaroonBells said:
Vikings now at -5.5

It's interesting. I wonder why the confidence is growing for a Viking's victory?

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@StickyBun said:

@MaroonBells said:
Vikings now at -5.5

It's interesting. I wonder why the confidence is growing for a Viking's victory?

I don't pretend to know why Vegas does what it does, but I can think of a few reasons. I would imagine it has a lot to do with the 39-10 west coast victory against a team that was healthy and playing good football of late--a team that also dominated the Packers just a few weeks ago. Secondly, the Vikings are at home, where they're unbeaten, in a game they have to win, against a team that has never won in that stadium. Plus, there seems to be a prevailing wisdom around the NFL that the Packers just aren't as good as their record. 

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@StickyBun said:

@MaroonBells said:
Vikings now at -5.5

It's interesting. I wonder why the confidence is growing for a Viking's victory?

I think the spread is moving higher because Vegas is trying to invite more bets on the Packers (guessing the Vikings were the betting favorite at -4.5).

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The home field is worth 3 but Vikes home is worth 3.5 by some estimates.  At -5.5 it says the market has the Vikings 2 points better than Green Bay if the game were played on a neutral field.  

The lines move with money wagered.  Bookies don't know much, they just let the bettors move the lines for the most part.

If I were betting Green Bay I would want to take at least 6 and preferably 6.5 or 7.  Not sure it will get there but late money is usually on the favorite so it might.

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FPI (football power index) gives the Vikings a 68% chance of winning.