And yet Jarius Wright still outperformed him....

[Guest]

Perspective from around the League. 

OK did a little research on the last few first round WR drafts:

2017 - only two WR's taken in the first round and they are referenced above.  Both Top 10 picks and neither has done squat.
Mike Williams at #7 to the Chargers - he has 1 catch - has had the new NFL wr injury bug.
John Ross at #9 to the Bengals - the speedster - he has 0 catches and 1 run for 12 yards.

2016 - 4 WR's taken - at 15 Coleman, 21 Fuller, 22 Doctson and 23 Treadwell
2015 - 6 WR's taken - at 4 Cooper, 7 Kevin White, 14 Devante Parker, 20 Agholor, 26 Brashard Perriman, 29 Philip Dorsett
2014 - 5 WR's taken - 4 Sammy Watkins, 7 Mike Evans, 12 Odell Beckem, 20 Branden Cooks, 28 Calvin Benjamin

If we only look at WR's taken in the 20's like Treadwell:

2016 - Fuller has been dinged both season and has played 3 games this year with 8 catches.
Doctson has been injured the whole time and has played in 7 games in 2 years with a total of 6 catches
Treadwell has been targeted 16 times total in 2 years with 9 catches (5 first downs, yippee 

2015 - Agholor looks to be one of the most productive 20th picks of 2015 with 23 catches as a rookie, 36 last year and 20 already this year for the Eagles.
Perriman with the Ravens didn't play in one game as a rookie, had 33 catches last year and has a total of 4 catches on 17 targets through 6 games this year. 
Dorsett with the Colts had 18 catches as a rookie, 33 last year and was traded to the Patriots where he has 4 catches on 8 targets on the year.

2014 - Cooks and Benjamin both productive from the get-go
Cooks 53 catches in 10 games as a rookie followed by 84 catches, 78 catches and was then traded to the Patriots where he has 24 catches in 6 games.
Benjamin played in all 16 games as a rookie and had 73 catches but was injured for the whole following year of 2015.  2016 he had 63 catches.  This year he has 26 catches in 6 games but might have another knee injury and isn't practicing.

So to give some perspective, WR's taken in the first round and also in the 20's are about a 50/50 chance of making immediate impacts as rookies.  Treadwell is coming on and it is his chance to step-up in year 2 with Diggs hurt again.  

[Guest]

@MaroonBells said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I think the biggest misconception with Treadwell was that everyone expected him to develop into a mirror image of what he did at Ole Miss. That just isn't realistic given his physical limitations as a player. It's not pretty but he has played with a lot of grit early this season being a key blocker. Slowly his production has increased as he's developed a rapport with Keenum. 

Agree Geoff. The problem is with the expectations of Treadwell, not Treadwell himself. I would not have been very confident in this last year, or before he was drafted, but after watching him the last few weeks, I now like his chances for hitting his ceiling, which in my opinion, has always been as a 700 yard, 8 TD post-up possession receiver. Now, you shouldn't be taking receivers like that in the 1st round (which was my argument all along) but I think as the season goes on and into next year, we're going to see him play a bigger part in this offense. That is, IF he stays. Because he'll have trouble reaching those numbers here, with Diggs, Thielen and Floyd in the mix. Depending on what we think of Floyd, which I can't know (maybe you do?), I really think Treadwell would be an interesting player to dangle before next week's trade deadline.

Agreed. The only area I'd push back a little bit is that a 800 yard 8 TD red zone threat isn't worth a 1st round pick. Although you can find the size/speed combination later in drafts the ball skills are usually lacking in some capacity. If you want a comparable player (not a perfect comp) Treadwell is very similar to Michael Crabtree early in his career. Crabtree had more immediate production due to the volume thrown his way, but he was only a 600-800 yard guy good for 4-6 TD's. Of course since he was drafted #10 overall he was labeled a bust and a change of scenery was eventually needed. Tread will take time and won't be a high volume target with Diggs and Thielen on the roster, but don't underestimate his value as a football player. 

As for a trade, I would hold him for the time being. I could see the team moving Floyd if they could net a mid to late round pick for him though. 

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@JimmyinSD said:

@StickyBun said:
So my question is then if some are blaming the QB for not throwing to a covered Treadwell, you see what happens when you do: interception. He's not Cris Carter. He's more Lynda Carter. The whole premise is silly. Now if he were more like Gal Gadot, we'd have something.  

Was he clearly interfered with yes or no?

No. That is rarely going to get called. Treadwell is hand fighting just as much as Carr was going down the field. His arm gets held but that is equally on Treadwell for playing with poor technique. The learning experience from that play is that you can try to make the one handed catch, but as a receiver the second touch always has to be batting the ball towards the ground or away from the DB. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@MaroonBells said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I think the biggest misconception with Treadwell was that everyone expected him to develop into a mirror image of what he did at Ole Miss. That just isn't realistic given his physical limitations as a player. It's not pretty but he has played with a lot of grit early this season being a key blocker. Slowly his production has increased as he's developed a rapport with Keenum. 

Agree Geoff. The problem is with the expectations of Treadwell, not Treadwell himself. I would not have been very confident in this last year, or before he was drafted, but after watching him the last few weeks, I now like his chances for hitting his ceiling, which in my opinion, has always been as a 700 yard, 8 TD post-up possession receiver. Now, you shouldn't be taking receivers like that in the 1st round (which was my argument all along) but I think as the season goes on and into next year, we're going to see him play a bigger part in this offense. That is, IF he stays. Because he'll have trouble reaching those numbers here, with Diggs, Thielen and Floyd in the mix. Depending on what we think of Floyd, which I can't know (maybe you do?), I really think Treadwell would be an interesting player to dangle before next week's trade deadline.

Agreed. The only area I'd push back a little bit is that a 800 yard 8 TD red zone threat isn't worth a 1st round pick. Although you can find the size/speed combination later in drafts the ball skills are usually lacking in some capacity. If you want a comparable player (not a perfect comp) Treadwell is very similar to Michael Crabtree early in his career. Crabtree had more immediate production due to the volume thrown his way, but he was only a 600-800 yard guy good for 4-6 TD's. Of course since he was drafted #10 overall he was labeled a bust and a change of scenery was eventually needed. Tread will take time and won't be a high volume target with Diggs and Thielen on the roster, but don't underestimate his value as a football player. 

As for a trade, I would hold him for the time being. I could see the team moving Floyd if they could net a mid to late round pick for him though. 

Doubt they could get that considering Floyd's history. I think Treadwell still has solid trade value. What's more, even quietly dangling Floyd on the market would be met with a HUGE amount of suspicion about what the Vikings might know, likely preventing any kind of deal. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@StickyBun said:
So my question is then if some are blaming the QB for not throwing to a covered Treadwell, you see what happens when you do: interception. He's not Cris Carter. He's more Lynda Carter. The whole premise is silly. Now if he were more like Gal Gadot, we'd have something.  

Was he clearly interfered with yes or no?

No. That is rarely going to get called. Treadwell is hand fighting just as much as Carr was going down the field. His arm gets held but that is equally on Treadwell for playing with poor technique. The learning experience from that play is that you can try to make the one handed catch, but as a receiver the second touch always has to be batting the ball towards the ground or away from the DB. 

Both his arms were getting held, the right arm ultimately got free,  but it was being held as well.  it was PI and it was a bad non call.  rewatched it several times and  i didnt see the hand fighting down the field as much as the defender went into his body and after the arms when Treadwell had to turn to try and come back for the ball.  I guess maybe he should have ran with his arms over his head to avoid the defender grabbing his arms.

[Guest]

Treadwell is 'coming on'?? Jesus. The rationalizations and excuses....unreal. 

I'll fade away on this, here's to being 6-2 by noon on Sunday. 

[Guest]

@twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof.  How many are deemed a bust after 1 year?  2 years?    vs 4 years?  

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

Would he have made it to year two had he been a 7th round pick?

Does him having a nearly guaranteed deal keep him on the team for 4 years?

[Guest]

@Bolstad79 said:

@twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof.  How many are deemed a bust after 1 year?  2 years?    vs 4 years?  

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

Would he have made it to year two had he been a 7th round pick?

Does him having a nearly guaranteed deal keep him on the team for 4 years?

no offense,  but kind of a dumb question.   would he have been a 7th round pick with all the skills he has shown in college and the physical traits he has?  the answer is no,  no way he ends up a 7th rounder based on his history and skill set.  so to say that if his performance had been that of a 7th rounder he would have been cut is screwy.

and no,  anybody that has decent upside and shows a desire to work hard will be given more than 1 year,  especially at a position that often requires a couple years to really settle in at.  and receiving stats aside... his run blocking is tops on the team and although it doesnt generate fantasy numbers WR blocking is a huge part of the game.  If a team cant effectively run the ball,  it severely hinders the teams ability to pass the ball.

[Guest]

@StickyBun said:

@twgerber said:
Scrutiny yes.   Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience.  WR's are a historically slow group to contribute.  There are always exceptions.   

No they aren't. Especially 1st round draft picks, which is the main crux of the criticism and that a few refuse to acknowledge. 1st round WR picks are quick to show you they are either good or busts, that's historically accurate.

Wait what? Historically it has been said that receivers can take up to 3 years to fully develop. Now maybe that is changing these days (not sure whether that is true or not) but yes historically that has been the case. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@StickyBun said:
So my question is then if some are blaming the QB for not throwing to a covered Treadwell, you see what happens when you do: interception. He's not Cris Carter. He's more Lynda Carter. The whole premise is silly. Now if he were more like Gal Gadot, we'd have something.  

Was he clearly interfered with yes or no?

No. That is rarely going to get called. Treadwell is hand fighting just as much as Carr was going down the field. His arm gets held but that is equally on Treadwell for playing with poor technique. The learning experience from that play is that you can try to make the one handed catch, but as a receiver the second touch always has to be batting the ball towards the ground or away from the DB. 

I think you need to rewatch the play. 

Agree on the batting the ball down but that was clearly interference. Text book.