OT: Jussie Smollett

[Guest]

@medaille said:
I expanded on the table a little bit.

...

Some assumptions in this data that I think are noteworthy.

• I
  didn’t have population data for every year, before 2015 the data is every
  5 years.  I prorated the populations
  between those years.
  
• I
  assumed the # of agencies stayed the same between all those years.  I would guess the number of agencies has
  shifted minimally, but you could argue that as population increased we
  have more agencies.  IDK, I’m not
  looking it up. The offenses per agency is trending upwards through most of
  Obama’s presidency, as is population.
  
• We don’t
  know which agencies are reporting or if they are consistently the same
  ones.  I would assume that it’s a
  large enough sample size not to matter, but if there’s certain areas that
  are hotbeds of hatecrimes and they do or don’t report I’m sure that could
  shift the data some.
  
• We
  don’t know the consistency of reporting. 
  I think we can all tell that people are becoming more sensitive/aware
  to these issues as time is going on. 
  It’s possible that people are reporting it differently as time goes
  on, but I don’t know how you would be able to prove it either way.
• I’m
  not sure how close the above is to accurate in terms of total quantities,
  since you can’t really tell who’s reporting and there’s multiple overlapping
  agencies including things like college campus police, etc.  I think you can compare ratios between
  years though.
  

[Guest]

@pumpf said:

@SFVikingFan said:

@JimmyinSD said:
Seems odd how the agencies reporting drops down pretty significantly during obama's terms in contrast to when it's a Republican.....do the crimes not take place in those areas when certain parties are in control or do those areas just not push their numbers up to the FBI when it makes certain parties look bad?

Or is it that certain groups feel more empowered when the presidential candidate and then president is openly talking about assaulting protestors?



Tough talk coming from someone who got out of military service for bone spurs.

So, what you're saying is: Obama is to blame for the huge increase in police officers being shot during his tenure?

Please list any quotes from Obama that are anywhere near as incendiary as what Trump has espoused throughout his entire political campaign and presidency.

Also, please provide evidence to back up your claim, because in 2013, during the middle of Obama's presidency, "The official count from the FBI is that 27 law enforcement officers were 'feloniously' killed in the line of duty in 2013 (the lowest in a 35-year period 1980-2014), and an additional 49 died in accidents (total: 76)."

I also see an overall downward trend since about the 1970s.  Where is this huge increase that you speak of?

[Guest]

@SFVikingFan said:
Please list any quotes from Obama that are anywhere near as incendiary as what Trump has espoused throughout his entire political campaign and presidency.

Also, please provide evidence to back up your claim, because in 2013, during the middle of Obama's presidency, "The official count from the FBI is that 27 law enforcement officers were 'feloniously' killed in the line of duty in 2013 (the lowest in a 35-year period 1980-2014), and an additional 49 died in accidents (total: 76)."

I also see an overall downward trend since about the 1970s.  Where is this huge increase that you speak of?

It seems like a pretty big speculation to assume that Trump
or Obamas comments would be the sole (or major) influencing factor for a
noticeable number of these crimes.


I think his main point was that it was stupid to blame Trump
for others activities and was using Obama-Police Deaths as a point.  I don’t think he was talking seriously about
Obama directly causing increases in Police Deaths.

[Guest]

@medaille said:
I expanded on the table a little bit.

Estimated # of Agencies Nationwide				17985
Year	# of Agencies	# of Incidents	# of Offenses	# of Incidents per Agency	# of Offenses per Agency	Total Offenses Nationwide	Population	Offenses per 100K People
2005	2037	7763	8373	3.81	4.11	73918.35	295,129,501	25.05
2006	2105	7722	9080	3.67	4.31	77515.35	297,831,879	26.03
2007	2025	7624	9006	3.76	4.45	80033.25	300,534,257	26.63
2008	2145	7783	9186	3.63	4.28	76975.80	303,236,635	25.38
2009	2034	6604	7789	3.25	3.83	68882.55	305,939,013	22.52
2010	1949	6628	7699	3.4	3.95	71040.75	308,641,391	23.02
2011	1944	6222	7254	3.2	3.73	67084.05	310,898,945	21.58
2012	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	313,156,499	NA
2013	1826	5928	6933	3.25	3.80	68343.00	315,414,054	21.67
2014	1666	5479	6418	3.29	3.85	69242.25	317,671,608	21.8
2015	1742	5850	6885	3.36	3.95	71040.75	319,929,162	22.21
2016	1776	6121	7321	3.45	4.12	74098.20	322,179,605	23
2017	2040	7175	8437	3.52	4.14	74457.90	324,459,463	22.95

So wait?  Actual math??  Numbers??  LOL  This post right here blows up the whole hate crime/hoax crime BS being spewed. The "rate" of hate crimes is identical for the last decade plus.

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

@medaille said:
I expanded on the table a little bit.

Estimated # of Agencies Nationwide				17985
Year	# of Agencies	# of Incidents	# of Offenses	# of Incidents per Agency	# of Offenses per Agency	Total Offenses Nationwide	Population	Offenses per 100K People
2005	2037	7763	8373	3.81	4.11	73918.35	295,129,501	25.05
2006	2105	7722	9080	3.67	4.31	77515.35	297,831,879	26.03
2007	2025	7624	9006	3.76	4.45	80033.25	300,534,257	26.63
2008	2145	7783	9186	3.63	4.28	76975.80	303,236,635	25.38
2009	2034	6604	7789	3.25	3.83	68882.55	305,939,013	22.52
2010	1949	6628	7699	3.4	3.95	71040.75	308,641,391	23.02
2011	1944	6222	7254	3.2	3.73	67084.05	310,898,945	21.58
2012	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	313,156,499	NA
2013	1826	5928	6933	3.25	3.80	68343.00	315,414,054	21.67
2014	1666	5479	6418	3.29	3.85	69242.25	317,671,608	21.8
2015	1742	5850	6885	3.36	3.95	71040.75	319,929,162	22.21
2016	1776	6121	7321	3.45	4.12	74098.20	322,179,605	23
2017	2040	7175	8437	3.52	4.14	74457.90	324,459,463	22.95

So wait?  Actual math??  Numbers??  LOL  This post right here blows up the whole hate crime/hoax crime BS being spewed. The "rate" of hate crimes is identical for the last decade plus.

Is there a fake hate crime metric here? 

[Guest]

@pumpf said:

@SFVikingFan said:

@JimmyinSD said:
Seems odd how the agencies reporting drops down pretty significantly during obama's terms in contrast to when it's a Republican.....do the crimes not take place in those areas when certain parties are in control or do those areas just not push their numbers up to the FBI when it makes certain parties look bad?

Or is it that certain groups feel more empowered when the presidential candidate and then president is openly talking about assaulting protestors?



Tough talk coming from someone who got out of military service for bone spurs.

So, what you're saying is: Obama is to blame for the huge increase in police officers being shot during his tenure?

Which side pushed for gun control and which didn't again?

While Obama was pleading with Congress for help against gun violence, the GOP was hellbent on ensuring gun laws are as lax as possible per their NRA lobbyist masters ... so it's pretty absurd you want to blame Obama for the uptick in cops shot, since gun violence against non-police had also increased thanks to GOP refusing to budge on any efforts to curb gun violence. 

[Guest]

@savannahskol said:

@SFVikeFan said:

Meanwhile real hate crimes went up 17% under Trump with more than 7000 hate crimes in 2017.  

Both you and MB have mentioned "17%" as a remarkable number... so let's do a deeper dive into the numbers, shall we? 
My source is the FBI statistics. https://ucr.fbi.gov/hate-crime

These years/numbers reflect 3 presidents (Bush, Obama, Trump)
The columns are  1) Year  2) Number of Law enforcement agencies reporting 3) Incidents  4) Offenses  

2005          2037            7763            8373
2006          2105            7722            9080
2007          2025            7624            9006
2008          2145            7783            9186
2009          2034            6604            7789
2010          1949            6628            7699
2011          1944            6222            7254
2012          NA
2013          1826            5928            6933
2014          1666            5479            6418
2015          1742            5850            6885
2016          1776            6121            7321
2017          2040            7175            8437

2018 numbers are not posted yet.  

Off the top.... yes... the '16 to '17 numbers seem quite the jump (increase). But not even 'highs', for the last 12 yrs. 
Reason mag (hardly right-wing) seems to qualify >> https://reason.com/blog/2018/11/13/fbi-h...ease-trump

Let's look at some numbers via the data.  
First off... as our population has increased (since '05) hate crimes(as a % of population) have decreased over time.  
Second... Obama had an INCREASE of 6418 to 7321 (('14 to '16) of 12.5 %.  AT THE END OF HIS PRESIDENCY.  Where was the consternation, then? 
Third.... Trump's numbers are only slightly above Obama's "worst" years.  (13.5%). 
Fourth... If you look at total hate crime offenses/total population... in the last decade... we're BETTER than where we were in 2008. 
(2008  9186 offenses/304.1 million people) = 0.0030%)
(2017  8437 offenses/325.7 million people) = 0.0026%)

And doesn't the 0.00whatever % give anyone pause that America is pretty damn tolerant?  Whoever is POTUS?



 @SFVikeFan said:

19 fake hate crimes vs. 15,000 actual hate crimes in the same time period.

Which ones do right wingers and Fox News push a narrative for?   

lol. 

The only statistic remotely relevant here is the 15,000 of real hate crimes vs 19 staged, fake hate crimes.

Smollett and his idioticy deserve to be punished, but the math shows these types of fake incidents are extremely rare compared to actual hate crimes.

[Guest]

@SFVikeFan said:

Which side pushed for gun control and which didn't again?

While Obama was pleading with Congress for help against gun violence, the GOP was hellbent on ensuring gun laws are as lax as possible per their NRA lobbyist masters ... so it's pretty absurd you want to blame Obama for the uptick in cops shot, since gun violence against non-police had also increased thanks to GOP refusing to budge on any efforts to curb gun violence. 

Yeah, gun control is doing wonders in Chicago.  

[Guest]

@SFVikeFan said:

@savannahskol said:

...

The only statistic remotely relevant here is the 15,000 of real hate crimes vs 19 staged, fake hate crimes.

Smollett and his idioticy deserve to be punished, but the math shows these types of fake incidents are extremely rare compared to actual hate crimes.

Assuming that
15,000 hate crimes is the right number, is this even something we should be
concerned about?  The number of violent
crimes in America is 1,247,321 (per The
FBI).  That’s over an 83x difference.  The amount of people living in poverty is ~43M
and the amount of people living in near poverty is ~100M.  40M people in the US are hungry.  Medical errors kill 250,000 people every
year.  Cancer kills 590,000.  Heart Attacks kill 610,000.  How much mental effort should we spend on the
15,000 hate crimes when these other behemoths are sitting right here?  1 in 21.6k people will be affected directly by hate crimes.

Are hate crimes even relevant to any of our lives besides how prominent it is in the media, and how the media makes us feel?

[Guest]

@medaille said:

@SFVikeFan said:

@savannahskol said:

...

The only statistic remotely relevant here is the 15,000 of real hate crimes vs 19 staged, fake hate crimes.

Smollett and his idioticy deserve to be punished, but the math shows these types of fake incidents are extremely rare compared to actual hate crimes.

Assuming that
15,000 hate crimes is the right number, is this even something we should be
concerned about?  The number of violent
crimes in America is 1,247,321 (per The
FBI).  That’s over an 83x difference.  The amount of people living in poverty is ~43M
and the amount of people living in near poverty is ~100M.  40M people in the US are hungry.  Medical errors kill 250,000 people every
year.  Cancer kills 590,000.  Heart Attacks kill 610,000.  How much mental effort should we spend on the
15,000 hate crimes when these other behemoths are sitting right here?  1 in 21.6k people will be affected directly by hate crimes.

Are hate crimes even relevant to any of our lives besides how prominent it is in the media, and how the media makes us feel?

I guess if you believe that hate crimes are no different than disease, poverty and crimes of random violence, then yeah, they would be irrelevant in your mind. How do you feel about terrorism? Terrorism accounts for a miniscule amount of deaths compared with the above. And yet we treat those crimes differently. Do you know why? Also, can you think of ways we're trying to reduce poverty, combat heart disease, cancer, etc?