Random Thoughts Pre Draft

[JustInTime]

I think the question about safety is do we want a replacement for Metellus who's in a contract year? A replacement for Harry, who's in his last season? Or competition for Theo Jackson, whom the team seems to like, but is largely unproven. 

Considering the above, safety is definitely a 1st round consideration, but I agree with Mr Gainz. Safety could also wait until the mid to late rounds.

You’re asking the right questions. I’m further thinking matchups in the division and conference. Gibbs is a pretty big factor in the division.

Who in the back 7 has the speed to deal with Gibbs? No one currently. How about Barkley? Hurts? Daniels? Who matches up well with LaPorta or either TE in Green Bay? 

We need to close the gap on Detroit, then Washington and eventually Philadelphia. I think Emmanwori would help in that regard. So would Barron and Starks. The front 4 isn’t bulletproof but it’s damn close. Back 7? I think a difference maker back there gets you deeper into January football.

[hogjowlsjohnny]

You’re asking the right questions. I’m further thinking matchups in the division and conference. Gibbs is a pretty big factor in the division.

Who in the back 7 has the speed to deal with Gibbs? No one currently. How about Barkley? Hurts? Daniels? Who matches up well with LaPorta or either TE in Green Bay? 

We need to close the gap on Detroit, then Washington and eventually Philadelphia. I think Emmanwori would help in that regard. So would Barron and Starks. The front 4 isn’t bulletproof but it’s damn close. Back 7? I think a difference maker back there gets you deeper into January football.

This is exactly the way they should be looking at it. Agree 100%.

[JustInTime]

I wish this guy was a fit for us. Was bummed he didn’t declare last year. This year he absolutely slayed in the Senior Bowl. He’s going to go to a 4-3 team and destroy OTs. Way undervalued in the draft process. Should be ranked in the 20s not 40-50. Someone is getting a total stud.

[supafreak84]

I think the question about safety is do we want a replacement for Metellus who's in a contract year? A replacement for Harry, who's in his last season? Or competition for Theo Jackson, whom the team seems to like, but is largely unproven. 

Considering the above, safety is definitely a 1st round consideration, but I agree with Mr Gainz. Safety could also wait until the mid to late rounds.

It's going to be interesting to see how Flores plays the safety position. We know how important Smith is to the defense and Flores considers him to be another coach or an extension of himself on the field. Mattelus is so damn good in that Swiss army type role where he plays all over the field that I'd be hesitant to move him out of that. I suspect we'll see a lot of Theo Jackson and Mattelus continuing to be a roamer in certain sets. Jay Ward is a guy who has been in the system a couple years now and has flashed a little when he's had an opportunity. I mean maybe you could take a guy like Emmanwori and make him the new chess piece and keep Mattelus on the back end or vice versa, but if that were the case, why extend Theo Jackson if the plan was to sit him on the bench in favor of a rookie? I think you can safely say right now we have three pieces at safety that are going to play major roles and a guy the team likes in Jay Ward as a backup. I just think if you are Kwesi, sitting there without a contract extension and having just completely busted on a guy a few years ago who was supposed to be everything Emmanwori and Starks are said to be, there's no way you put your head on the chopping block by taking another safety in the first round.

Somebody look it up. What is the recent bust rate of safeties taken in the first or second round who are no longer with the teams that drafted them? It's a high bust position and one where you can literally sign highly drafted players like Javon Holland every year in free agency. I just don't see Kwesi taking that kind of gamble...again.

[JustInTime]

Draft Bust Rates


This isn’t position specific, but based on this study 50% of first rounders are getting their second contract elsewhere. 

So, a coin flip basically.

[MaroonBells]

It's going to be interesting to see how Flores plays the safety position. We know how important Smith is to the defense and Flores considers him to be another coach or an extension of himself on the field. Mattelus is so damn good in that Swiss army type role where he plays all over the field that I'd be hesitant to move him out of that. I suspect we'll see a lot of Theo Jackson and Mattelus continuing to be a roamer in certain sets. Jay Ward is a guy who has been in the system a couple years now and has flashed a little when he's had an opportunity. I mean maybe you could take a guy like Emmanwori and make him the new chess piece and keep Mattelus on the back end or vice versa, but if that were the case, why extend Theo Jackson if the plan was to sit him on the bench in favor of a rookie? I think you can safely say right now we have three pieces at safety that are going to play major roles and a guy the team likes in Jay Ward as a backup. I just think if you are Kwesi, sitting there without a contract extension and having just completely busted on a guy a few years ago who was supposed to be everything Emmanwori and Starks are said to be, there's no way you put your head on the chopping block by taking another safety in the first round.

Somebody look it up. What is the recent bust rate of safeties taken in the first or second round who are no longer with the teams that drafted them? It's a high bust position and one where you can literally sign highly drafted players like Javon Holland every year in free agency. I just don't see Kwesi taking that kind of gamble...again.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-hist...al-success

Safety has one of the lowest 1st round bust rates. The reason for that is well explained here:

For premium positions — such as edge rusher or wide receiver — teams appear more willing to take risks on high-upside prospects, even if those players come with clear flaws. The potential value of hitting on a player at one of these spots often justifies the gamble....For positions like tight end, safety and interior offensive line, the trend is reversed. Teams typically select players at these spots in the first round only when there’s a clear need and the prospect is viewed as a blue-chip talent. 

[supafreak84]

I looked it up again. In the last ten years there have been numerous safeties taken in the 1st round of the draft. One! Just one received a contract extension from the team that drafted him..Derwin James. Kyle Hamilton (who we could have and should have taken) is a very safe bet to get an extension in Baltimore. Do not waste a 1st round pick on a safety. Harrison Smith is literally a unicorn and you can't like the chances of nabbing a unicorn with a front office that has yet to prove they know what they are doing drafting players and gave Ryan Grigson a seat at the table.

[JustInTime]

Off the top of my head, 2 safeties in the last ten years were traded from the team that drafted them for pretty significant draft capital: Jamal Adams and Jabril  Peppers. Both received contracts from their new teams. Both cost well more than the picks used to acquire them. 

Factoring in the previously mentioned bust rate MB unearned from PFF, mathematically speaking drafting a S this year looks like a pretty solid bet. 

I’ll take logic and math every time.

Adding Minka Fitzpatrick to the traded group.

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McKinney and Holland hit FA after being 2nd round picks but hit it big in FA. 

So, while technically correct, it’s really not painting the whole picture.

[supafreak84]

Off the top of my head, 2 safeties in the last ten years were traded from the team that drafted them for pretty significant draft capital: Jamal Adams and Jabril  Peppers. Both received contracts from their new teams. Both cost well more than the picks used to acquire them. 

Factoring in the previously mentioned bust rate MB unearned from PFF, mathematically speaking drafting a S this year looks like a pretty solid bet. 

I’ll take logic and math every time.

Adding Minka Fitzpatrick to the traded group.

Adams and Peppers are two great examples of guys who never lived up to expectations and I commend both the Jets and the Browns for fleecing those other teams in trades for players they either didn't want to pay (smartly) or were throw ins in larger deals. Adams flamed out hard and Peppers is on his 3rd team since being drafted and apparently "snow blind" up in New England. I don't think you draft a player thinking, "well if it doesn't work out, I'll flip them for high draft compensation in a few years" and hope you get another team to bite. Cine is more the norm in the league.

[JustInTime]

I’ll add Pitre and Brisker to the likely to be extended list since we’re looking at 2nd rounders. 

S might be the safest route this year.