Day 4 Covid Camp Notes

[Guest]

@VikingOracle said:

@BigAl99 said:
Biology is a system of chaos, good luck predicting outcomes of mutations.   Most are fatal to the organism, but the more mutations you have the probability of a pernicious one developing increases.  Just do the best you can, we are back to masking when we go inside.  I am seeing more folks doing the same

That is why I am always confused by the unvaccinated focusing on how this virus came to be -- they just don't realize that they are the virus' new laboratory.

But hasn't this view evolved (not changed)....

Vaccinated people can carry (and transmit) hi loads of Covid in nose and throat. It most likely wont kill you if you're vaccinated, but you can still spread it. Hence the new reco's to wear masks indoors. 

[Guest]

@purplefaithful said:

@VikingOracle said:

@BigAl99 said:
Biology is a system of chaos, good luck predicting outcomes of mutations.   Most are fatal to the organism, but the more mutations you have the probability of a pernicious one developing increases.  Just do the best you can, we are back to masking when we go inside.  I am seeing more folks doing the same

That is why I am always confused by the unvaccinated focusing on how this virus came to be -- they just don't realize that they are the virus' new laboratory.

But hasn't this view evolved (not changed)....

Vaccinated people can carry (and transmit) hi loads of Covid in nose and throat. It most likely wont kill you if you're vaccinated, but you can still spread it. Hence the new reco's to wear masks indoors. 

That is specific to the delta, the prior strains that wasn't found.  Now with testing going away we will know less.  There is a new one from Columbia that looks pretty aggressive just showing it self in Fla. 

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@purplefaithful said:

@VikingOracle said:

@BigAl99 said:
Biology is a system of chaos, good luck predicting outcomes of mutations.   Most are fatal to the organism, but the more mutations you have the probability of a pernicious one developing increases.  Just do the best you can, we are back to masking when we go inside.  I am seeing more folks doing the same

That is why I am always confused by the unvaccinated focusing on how this virus came to be -- they just don't realize that they are the virus' new laboratory.

But hasn't this view evolved (not changed)....

Vaccinated people can carry (and transmit) hi loads of Covid in nose and throat. It most likely wont kill you if you're vaccinated, but you can still spread it. Hence the new reco's to wear masks indoors. 

That is specific to the delta, the prior strains that wasn't found.  Now with testing going away we will know less.  There is a new one from Columbia that looks pretty aggressive just showing it self in Fla. 

I just don't think we can operate under the crude thinking of "Vaccinated = safe/doing their part.  Unvaccinated = unsafe/doesn't care about society".  I think it's going to have to be much more nuanced than that.  I think we'll have to be conscious of what vaccines have what impacts, on each variant that's happening in your area.  In my mind, if you're vaccinated but you're in an area where a new variant is spreading and we don't know if the vaccine is effective against this new variant, then you should consider yourself unvaccinated, until it's proven that your vaccine is effective against the new variant.  I don't think it makes sense to be thinking, "Hey I got vaccinated against , so now I can do all the things that were risky for us prior to the vaccine."  That just feels like a recipe for spreading a new variant like wildfire.

[Guest]

A virus is a lot like the invasion of the body snatchers. It is an incomplete segment of genetic material that needs to have a host to survive and replicate. If exposed to enough viral load, it will invade the hosts cells, insert itself into the hosts genes and begin to replicate until the cell bursts and infects other cells. This goes on until the bodies immune system kills the virus or the virus kills the host. Because of the nature of this invasion and genetic makeup of the virus there is a lot of viral mutation. Mutation in viruses is continuous.
There are very few medicines that can effectively treat viruses. Therefore, vaccines are the cornerstone of prevention of the more severe viral illnesses.

The problem the NFL is facing, with their current protocols, is the breakthrough infection of those vaccinated by the delta variant.

A booster shot will include protection from this variant in the future, and eventually the Covid vaccine will likely resemble the annual influenza vaccination.

I have some ideas about how this could have been handled a little differently by the Government and CDC, but this isn't the place for that discussion.

Apologies to those I bored!

[Guest]

@medaille totally agree, there is no one universal way to deal with it. Till we get to that 75-80% level, I'll just be staying the course.  It will be a while before restaurants and group venues will include me.  Reading about some of the implications of long covid and cognitive impacts, and that alone is going to keep me vigilant and taking care of myself, I am not going to wait and see if it's true and then be cautious.  

[Guest]

To quickly clarify:  The vaccine was never 100% effective but it was the best thing we had.  Now, the vaccine is a little less effective with Delta ("With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant." New England Journal of Medicine).  And the vaccine loses effectiveness over time.  If you have a vaccinated player and an unvaccinated player exposed, the unvaccinated player is much, much more likely to get it -- and much more likely to have a bad case.  "Hirsh pointed to data released last week on breakthrough infections by the state Department of Public Health, which he called “an incredible testament to how effective the vaccines are.” Fewer than 4,500 people tested positive for COVID-19, among the 4.3 million in the state who have been vaccinated, a breakthrough infection rate of one-tenth of 1 percent."  https://www.umassmed.edu/news/news-archi...accinated/.  So, you have one group who is unvaccinated and are highly susceptible to Delta (creating a fertile field for more mutations) and then another group of vaccinated people who have a much, much lower susceptibility who sometime gets it but largely are doing everything they can to avoid it (I believe unvaccinated people are also less likely to wear masks and social distance than myself as I do wear a mask again).  So, it is fair to say that the unvaccinated are the laboratories whereby the virus is able to mutate again (and again and again).

[Guest]

@"BarrNone55" said:

I'm vaccinated. Have been for awhile, however, the CDC has been very stupid in its messaging evidenced by contradictory advice including that of Fauci (even hypocritical with him) and therefore, the CDC allowed politics (both sides) to frame the arguments and the misinformation to run wild.   

[Guest]

@VikingOracle said:
To quickly clarify:  The vaccine was never 100% effective but it was the best thing we had.  Now, the vaccine is a little less effective with Delta ("With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant." New England Journal of Medicine).  And the vaccine loses effectiveness over time.  If you have a vaccinated player and an unvaccinated player exposed, the unvaccinated player is much, much more likely to get it -- and much more likely to have a bad case.  "Hirsh pointed to data released last week on breakthrough infections by the state Department of Public Health, which he called “an incredible testament to how effective the vaccines are.” Fewer than 4,500 people tested positive for COVID-19, among the 4.3 million in the state who have been vaccinated, a breakthrough infection rate of one-tenth of 1 percent."  https://www.umassmed.edu/news/news-archives/2021/07/delta-variant-spurring-uptick-in-covid-19-cases-largely-in-unvaccinated/.  So, you have one group who is unvaccinated and are highly susceptible to Delta (creating a fertile field for more mutations) and then another group of vaccinated people who have a much, much lower susceptibility who sometime gets it but largely are doing everything they can to avoid it (I believe unvaccinated people are also less likely to wear masks and social distance than myself as I do wear a mask again).  So, it is fair to say that the unvaccinated are the laboratories whereby the virus is able to mutate again (and again and again).

This article from the NYT, and a corresponding document from the CDC suggest otherwise, if I'm understanding things correctly, but if I'm not feel free to let me know.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/healt...?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Summary

What is already known about this topic?
Variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge. The B.1.617.2
(Delta) variant is highly transmissible.
What is added by this report?
In July 2021, following multiple large public events in a
Barnstable County, Massachusetts, town, 469 COVID-19 cases
were identified among Massachusetts residents who had
traveled to the town during July 3–17; 346 (74%) occurred in
fully vaccinated persons. Testing identified the Delta variant in
90% of specimens from 133 patients. Cycle threshold values
were similar among specimens from patients who were fully
vaccinated and those who were not.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Jurisdictions might consider expanded prevention strategies,
including universal masking in indoor public settings, particu-
larly for large public gatherings that include travelers from
many areas with differing levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

[Guest]

@"BarrNone55" said:

Now find a picture of a virus and caption it: "I can cure stupid."

[Guest]

@medaille said:

@BigAl99 said:

@purplefaithful said:

@VikingOracle said:

@BigAl99 said:
Biology is a system of chaos, good luck predicting outcomes of mutations.   Most are fatal to the organism, but the more mutations you have the probability of a pernicious one developing increases.  Just do the best you can, we are back to masking when we go inside.  I am seeing more folks doing the same

That is why I am always confused by the unvaccinated focusing on how this virus came to be -- they just don't realize that they are the virus' new laboratory.

But hasn't this view evolved (not changed)....

Vaccinated people can carry (and transmit) hi loads of Covid in nose and throat. It most likely wont kill you if you're vaccinated, but you can still spread it. Hence the new reco's to wear masks indoors. 

That is specific to the delta, the prior strains that wasn't found.  Now with testing going away we will know less.  There is a new one from Columbia that looks pretty aggressive just showing it self in Fla. 

I just don't think we can operate under the crude thinking of "Vaccinated = safe/doing their part.  Unvaccinated = unsafe/doesn't care about society".  I think it's going to have to be much more nuanced than that.  I think we'll have to be conscious of what vaccines have what impacts, on each variant that's happening in your area.  In my mind, if you're vaccinated but you're in an area where a new variant is spreading and we don't know if the vaccine is effective against this new variant, then you should consider yourself unvaccinated, until it's proven that your vaccine is effective against the new variant.  I don't think it makes sense to be thinking, "Hey I got vaccinated against , so now I can do all the things that were risky for us prior to the vaccine."  That just feels like a recipe for spreading a new variant like wildfire.

@ the bold:

To be clear: "It's mostly about protecting the unvaccinated. That's where the real serious risks of illness are," said Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health

Those who are vaccinated are less likely to get infected, Collins said. When breakthrough infections do happen in vaccinated people, they usually lead to mild or no symptoms at all.
But vaccinated people who get breakthrough infections might be able to spread Covid-19 as easily as unvaccinated people, according to the CDC.
"High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus," CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Friday.
That finding "was a pivotal discovery leading to CDC's updated mask recommendation," Walensky said.
But Collins said it's critical to emphasize how much more danger unvaccinated people are in, compared to vaccinated people. He said those who are not vaccinated: 
-- Are three times more likely to get infected. 
-- Are eight times more likely to get symptoms when infected.
-- Are 25 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19.
"If anybody's listening who's been on the fence, it's a tipping point now," Collins said. "Let's try to get everybody out there and start to be a part of the winning team."