Diggs, Floyd injuries offer prove-it chance for Treadwell

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@minny65 said:

@MaroonBells said:

@StickyBun said:

@" who's unrealistic?Exactly. So a WR drafted in the 1st round is a WR3? That's nuts. We have a WR drafted in the 5th round that's a #1. It was a wasted pick, straight up. 

Yes, and an undrafted WR that's a #2. A player who didn't become a full time starter until his 3rd season. And remember, Diggs wasn't even active his rookie season until mid-year. The point is that you don't always know what you have until the receiver gets the opportunity to play, gain the trust of his QB, and string a few games together. I hated the Treadwell pick, but it's too early to call him a bust. 

We have a UDFA and a 5th round pick as our Top 2 WR's and both are towards the top of the NFL.  Our first round pick is coming on slowly, slower then most like for a first round pick but not unlike about 50/60% of first round picks.  Everyone seems to think that every first round pick should start, and play really well, within there first year and it is a 50/50 proposition at every position and WR is one of the hardest to make an immediate impact.  

I also don't get the he never gets open theme....In the NFL open is about 1 yard and Tread has been getting open plus we all knew he wasn't a speedster and used his body positioning, leaping/vertical, and long arms in college to make a ton of catches - mostly contested even in college.  1 yard is gained just by running a precise route and I think Tread is still learning the precise routes necessary for the NFL...CP never learned them...Tread seems to be learning.  We will see in the next few weeks although I expect a heavy run game vs Ravens their run defense has been bottom of the NFL.  So ball control, screens, runs and maybe around 20 pass attempts with tread targeted maybe 5 times max.  

Lastly:

Only 2 WR's were taken in the first round last year.

Mike Williams at #7 to the Chargers - he has 1 catch - has had the new NFL wr injury bug.
John Ross at #9 to the Bengals - the speedster - he has 0 catches and 1 run for 12 yards.

I think Treadwell was the 4th WR taken in 2016 draft around 22nd if I recall.  If I have a chance I will go back in the last few drafts and looks at WR's taken in the 20's and see how they are doing..we know Doctson for the Redskins has not done anything and he was the pick right before Treadwell (he is also the guy I wanted because he had more speed)

excellent take.  i believe as soon as treadwell shows he is in the right spot very consistently, he will be trusted and become a weapon

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Check out 65 bringing the historical context!  Yes, folks. Context matters, not stats in a vacuum.

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@minny65 said:
Perspective from around the League.

OK did a little research on the last few first round WR drafts:

2017 - only two WR's taken in the first round and they are referenced above.  Both Top 10 picks and neither has done squat.
2016 - 4 WR's taken - at 15 Coleman, 21 Fuller, 22 Doctson and 23 Treadwell
2015 - 6 WR's taken - at 4 Cooper, 7 Kevin White, 14 Devante Parker, 20 Agholor, 26 Brashard Perriman, 29 Philip Dorsett
2014 - 5 WR's taken - 4 Sammy Watkins, 7 Mike Evans, 12 Odell Beckem, 20 Branden Cooks, 28 Calvin Benjamin

If we only look at WR's taken in the 20's like Treadwell:

2016 - Fuller has been dinged both season and has played 3 games this year with 8 catches.
Doctson has been injured the whole time and has played in 7 games in 2 years with a total of 6 catches
Treadwell has been targeted 16 times total in 2 years with 9 catches (5 first downs, yippee

2015 - Agholor looks to be one of the most productive 20th picks of 2015 with 23 catches as a rookie, 36 last year and 20 already this year for the Eagles.
Perriman with the Ravens didn't play in one game as a rookie, had 33 catches last year and has a total of 4 catches on 17 targets through 6 games this year. 
Dorsett with the Colts had 18 catches as a rookie, 33 last year and was traded to the Patriots where he has 4 catches on 8 targets on the year.

2014 - Cooks and Benjamin both productive from the get-go
Cooks 53 catches in 10 games as a rookie followed by 84 catches, 78 catches and was then traded to the Patriots where he has 24 catches in 6 games.
Benjamin played in all 16 games as a rookie and had 73 catches but was injured for the whole following year of 2015.  2016 he had 63 catches.  This year he has 26 catches in 6 games but might have another knee injury and isn't practicing.

So to give some perspective, WR's taken in the first round and also in the 20's are about a 50/50 chance of making immediate impacts as rookies.  Treadwell is coming on and it is his chance to step-up in year 2 with Diggs hurt again.  

Excellent research and perspective. But...it doesn't necessarily show that Treadwell is likely to emerge - it might just mean that most WRs drafted in round 1 (since 2014) are disappointing.

I would add that the modest success rate you cite of first rounders - and those drafted in the 20s - is skewed even further by 2014. That was an unreal outlier draft for WRs, maybe the equivalent of 1983 for QBs. 5-for-5 success in the first round (even the 2nd round had Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee...) In almost any other year, Cooks and Benjamin would have been drafted well before #20. 

But 2014 is so recent that all NFL fans hope for that kind of result. And we Vikings fans expect Randy Moss every time we pick a WR! And: WRs picked after Treadwell in 2016 have been better than him.

Regardless, I think Treadwell will have a hard time emerging on this team because Zimmer won't let his QBs throw into a crowd on a regular basis.

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@Jor-El said:

@minny65 said:
Perspective from around the League.

OK did a little research on the last few first round WR drafts:

2017 - only two WR's taken in the first round and they are referenced above.  Both Top 10 picks and neither has done squat.
2016 - 4 WR's taken - at 15 Coleman, 21 Fuller, 22 Doctson and 23 Treadwell
2015 - 6 WR's taken - at 4 Cooper, 7 Kevin White, 14 Devante Parker, 20 Agholor, 26 Brashard Perriman, 29 Philip Dorsett
2014 - 5 WR's taken - 4 Sammy Watkins, 7 Mike Evans, 12 Odell Beckem, 20 Branden Cooks, 28 Calvin Benjamin

If we only look at WR's taken in the 20's like Treadwell:

2016 - Fuller has been dinged both season and has played 3 games this year with 8 catches.
Doctson has been injured the whole time and has played in 7 games in 2 years with a total of 6 catches
Treadwell has been targeted 16 times total in 2 years with 9 catches (5 first downs, yippee

2015 - Agholor looks to be one of the most productive 20th picks of 2015 with 23 catches as a rookie, 36 last year and 20 already this year for the Eagles.
Perriman with the Ravens didn't play in one game as a rookie, had 33 catches last year and has a total of 4 catches on 17 targets through 6 games this year. 
Dorsett with the Colts had 18 catches as a rookie, 33 last year and was traded to the Patriots where he has 4 catches on 8 targets on the year.

2014 - Cooks and Benjamin both productive from the get-go
Cooks 53 catches in 10 games as a rookie followed by 84 catches, 78 catches and was then traded to the Patriots where he has 24 catches in 6 games.
Benjamin played in all 16 games as a rookie and had 73 catches but was injured for the whole following year of 2015.  2016 he had 63 catches.  This year he has 26 catches in 6 games but might have another knee injury and isn't practicing.

So to give some perspective, WR's taken in the first round and also in the 20's are about a 50/50 chance of making immediate impacts as rookies.  Treadwell is coming on and it is his chance to step-up in year 2 with Diggs hurt again.  

Excellent research and perspective. But...it doesn't necessarily show that Treadwell is likely to emerge - it might just mean that most WRs drafted in round 1 (since 2014) are disappointing.

I would add that the modest success rate you cite of first rounders - and those drafted in the 20s - is skewed even further by 2014. That was an unreal outlier draft for WRs, maybe the equivalent of 1983 for QBs. 5-for-5 success in the first round (even the 2nd round had Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee...) In almost any other year, Cooks and Benjamin would have been drafted well before #20. 

But 2014 is so recent that all NFL fans hope for that kind of result. And we Vikings fans expect Randy Moss every time we pick a WR! And: WRs picked after Treadwell in 2016 have been better than him.

Regardless, I think Treadwell will have a hard time emerging on this team because Zimmer won't let his QBs throw into a crowd on a regular basis.

I wasn't indicating that Treadwell was about to emerge.  The purpose of my posts on this thread where to gain a wider perspective on Treadwell vs other first round WR's in the recent past.  It seems to me that their are always a couple of posters who think the Vikings are the only team that misses on picks and I wanted to research and see if my 50% was accurate. 

My initial post I threw out a number of about 50% of first round WR's come in and make a first year comeback and when I looked back a few years that looked about right.  Treadwell is part of the 50% that did not make an impact can't deny that but he came in for Floyd in the second half was targeted 3 times and caught all 3, 2 were for first downs.

I would really like to see what he could do with a full start which might be this week.  That said the ravens d is prone to the run so I don't think Case will be throwing much more then 20 passes.  So Tread might only get targeted a handful of times and I hope he makes the most of them like he did last week.  He was next man up and he stepped up hope it continues.

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One other semi relevant point - Treadwell - just turned 22 a couple of months and was the youngest of the WR group of the 4 first rounders that year.  Doctson is almost 25 and Coleman and Will Fuller are over a year older then Treadwell.

He is young and I suspect was immature for the NFL game.  He is coming along slowly but I do think he is coming around.