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Theilen/KC discussion
#21
Cousins was slingin’ it ‘till coach Flip told him: “there’s a lot of peoples livelihoods in your hands every time you drop back” Cousins was never the same, unfortunately... turns out Flip was prescient on that one!
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#22
Quote: @silverjoel said:
@JimmyinSD said:
@greediron said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Watch at 1:13 remaining in Q2. Once Kirk escapes the pocket Thielen immediately turns his route back to about the 10 yard line where he is a readily available target and honestly the safer throw if ball placement leaves it towards the sideline. 

The frustration isn't solely due to that one play though. I think it finally boiled over because Kirk typically will only take the underneath pass when flushed out of the pocket. There are many examples where he has open receivers down the field but he takes whats underneath because its the "check down". It's really something that's plagued Kirk going back to his days in Washington (minus the year with McVay). 

A lot of people are saying he doesn't see the field and I partially agree with it. But bigger picture after being pressured so much all season long it finally got into his head that he just needs to take the first man available vs. trying to push the ball down the field. Kirk was a very different (timid) player compared to the guy we saw in say weeks 1 or 2. 
Especially during the first and second quarter the last few games.  Was that maybe because of the new OC and a lack of trust in the play call?  KC was staring at the rush even when he had time, he looked like Ponder trying to find an escape route instead of throwing the ball. 

But it seemed that he would settle down about halfway through the 2nd quarter.  That I just don't understand.
its an instinct that has to be unlearned now.  no different than a kid that gets smacked all the time,  anytime they hear a loud voice or somebody makes a sudden movement they flinch.... well KC got hit so much this year he is suffering from it.  we have seen the same thing from other QBs,  early on they stand in there and take the punishment,  but over time they start to rush throws,  have their mechanics get out of whack,  tuck and run to soon,  take check downs to early...etc.   I said in early december that the team maybe needed to admit that this wasnt their year and to get Sloter some experience since KC was looking shell shocked already by then and there werent going to be any magic fixes to that OL.... of course our slim playoff hopes won out,  but in hingsight I still think it would have maybe been a better option since the kid has really no bright lights experience.
The problem with that explanation is that Cousins didn't get hit at any historic rate.  Here are the numbers.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=TM

Using total hits doesn't take account of the number of pass attempts, but even just using total hits, he was in the middle.  Tally that as a hit percentage and I'm sure he was hit at a lesser percentage than most.

As to why the Theilen-Cousins connection fell off, my best guess is that Cousins didn't want to risk the throws.  The pressure was mounting and I'm sure he heard about his turnovers losing games.  Theilen was more covered later.  Theilen was probably getting frustrated because all of last year his QB trusted him to go get the ball and those throws just didn't come this year.  I forget what game it was, but there's also the Theilen quote saying that sh!t has been there all game.
I am not going to rewatch the games with a counter,  but KC got rocked on a shit load of his drop backs this year... fuck he was taking hits on hand offs our OL was so pathetic at times.  I have to question the accuracy of that stat as that represents less than 6 hits per game and we know damn well that compton gave up that many in a quarter more than once...(well maybe not) but I know he was getting hit a lot more than 6 times per game in the latter hafl of the year.
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#23
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
I am not going to rewatch the games with a counter,  but KC got rocked on a shit load of his drop backs this year... fuck he was taking hits on hand offs our OL was so pathetic at times.  I have to question the accuracy of that stat as that represents less than 6 hits per game and we know damn well that compton gave up that many in a quarter more than once...(well maybe not) but I know he was getting hit a lot more than 6 times per game in the latter hafl of the year.
You can go through all of the games here if you want.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/t...8/gamelog/

For instance, week 17 there were 9 QB hits, but week 16 there were 3 QB hits.  Now sacks are separate, meaning if you wanted to know how many times a QB ends up on the ground you could add sacks and hits.  But again, Cousins didn't get sacked that much either, 13th lowest sack percentage.

I really don't mean any offense by this, but this is exactly why I look up the stats myself.  I don't trust any game-day goggles for what actually happened.  The game-day threads, although amusing, are pretty lacking in quality.
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#24
Quote: @silverjoel said:
@JimmyinSD said:
@silverjoel said:
@JimmyinSD said:
@greediron said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Watch at 1:13 remaining in Q2. Once Kirk escapes the pocket Thielen immediately turns his route back to about the 10 yard line where he is a readily available target and honestly the safer throw if ball placement leaves it towards the sideline. 

The frustration isn't solely due to that one play though. I think it finally boiled over because Kirk typically will only take the underneath pass when flushed out of the pocket. There are many examples where he has open receivers down the field but he takes whats underneath because its the "check down". It's really something that's plagued Kirk going back to his days in Washington (minus the year with McVay). 

A lot of people are saying he doesn't see the field and I partially agree with it. But bigger picture after being pressured so much all season long it finally got into his head that he just needs to take the first man available vs. trying to push the ball down the field. Kirk was a very different (timid) player compared to the guy we saw in say weeks 1 or 2. 
Especially during the first and second quarter the last few games.  Was that maybe because of the new OC and a lack of trust in the play call?  KC was staring at the rush even when he had time, he looked like Ponder trying to find an escape route instead of throwing the ball. 

But it seemed that he would settle down about halfway through the 2nd quarter.  That I just don't understand.
its an instinct that has to be unlearned now.  no different than a kid that gets smacked all the time,  anytime they hear a loud voice or somebody makes a sudden movement they flinch.... well KC got hit so much this year he is suffering from it.  we have seen the same thing from other QBs,  early on they stand in there and take the punishment,  but over time they start to rush throws,  have their mechanics get out of whack,  tuck and run to soon,  take check downs to early...etc.   I said in early december that the team maybe needed to admit that this wasnt their year and to get Sloter some experience since KC was looking shell shocked already by then and there werent going to be any magic fixes to that OL.... of course our slim playoff hopes won out,  but in hingsight I still think it would have maybe been a better option since the kid has really no bright lights experience.
The problem with that explanation is that Cousins didn't get hit at any historic rate.  Here are the numbers.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=TM

Using total hits doesn't take account of the number of pass attempts, but even just using total hits, he was in the middle.  Tally that as a hit percentage and I'm sure he was hit at a lesser percentage than most.

As to why the Theilen-Cousins connection fell off, my best guess is that Cousins didn't want to risk the throws.  The pressure was mounting and I'm sure he heard about his turnovers losing games.  Theilen was more covered later.  Theilen was probably getting frustrated because all of last year his QB trusted him to go get the ball and those throws just didn't come this year.  I forget what game it was, but there's also the Theilen quote saying that sh!t has been there all game.
I am not going to rewatch the games with a counter,  but KC got rocked on a shit load of his drop backs this year... fuck he was taking hits on hand offs our OL was so pathetic at times.  I have to question the accuracy of that stat as that represents less than 6 hits per game and we know damn well that compton gave up that many in a quarter more than once...(well maybe not) but I know he was getting hit a lot more than 6 times per game in the latter hafl of the year.
You can go through all of the games here if you want.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/t...8/gamelog/

For instance, week 17 there were 9 QB hits, but week 16 there were 3 QB hits.  Now sacks are separate, meaning if you wanted to know how many times a QB ends up on the ground you could add sacks and hits.  But again, Cousins didn't get sacked that much either, 13th lowest sack percentage.

I really don't mean any offense by this, but this is exactly why I look up the stats myself.  I don't trust any game-day goggles for what actually happened.  The game-day threads, although amusing, are pretty lacking in quality.
and I dont trust the stat numbers any more than I trust PFF for their grades.  some things like yards and attempts they will likely keep pretty close track of,  hits I dont know,  but what ever.  I saw what I saw and that was a guy that got hit a lot and as a result he started to distrust his OL and force the ball out early and give up on his progression to try and save his ass.  I have said it for years when our OL started to get shitty that the QBs would start strong and as the year progressed they grew more weary of their protection and the offense would fall off.   there are exceptions,  but the OL has been a major issue for a long time and no QB is going to look good behind it long term.   
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#25
Well, if you do happen to re-watch a game from this season, would you mind keeping track of QB hits? 

I can understand not trusting some stats, like was that QB doing a designed run and that should be a tackle for a loss or was he trying to pass and that should be a sack?  But QB hits seems pretty cut and dry.  Did the QB get hit or not?  QB pressure is much more subjective.

I didn't see the same thing as you.  I saw pressure, sure, but Cousins didn't end up on the ground that much.  
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#26
Quote: @silverjoel said:
Well, if you do happen to re-watch a game from this season, would you mind keeping track of QB hits? 

I can understand not trusting some stats, like was that QB doing a designed run and that should be a tackle for a loss or was he trying to pass and that should be a sack?  But QB hits seems pretty cut and dry.  Did the QB get hit or not?  QB pressure is much more subjective.

I didn't see the same thing as you.  I saw pressure, sure, but Cousins didn't end up on the ground that much.  
I could be wrong but I think I deleted them from my DVR last week.  I keep all the wins (who wants to rewatch a loss, right?) but I was particulary dismayed with the results this year and didnt think I would want to rehash my disappointment.  If I do I will try and rewatch,  although they dont all make the tv broadcast,  a lot of times the camera comes off the QB about as soon as he releases the ball.
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#27
Quote: @silverjoel said:
@JimmyinSD said:
@greediron said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Watch at 1:13 remaining in Q2. Once Kirk escapes the pocket Thielen immediately turns his route back to about the 10 yard line where he is a readily available target and honestly the safer throw if ball placement leaves it towards the sideline. 

The frustration isn't solely due to that one play though. I think it finally boiled over because Kirk typically will only take the underneath pass when flushed out of the pocket. There are many examples where he has open receivers down the field but he takes whats underneath because its the "check down". It's really something that's plagued Kirk going back to his days in Washington (minus the year with McVay). 

A lot of people are saying he doesn't see the field and I partially agree with it. But bigger picture after being pressured so much all season long it finally got into his head that he just needs to take the first man available vs. trying to push the ball down the field. Kirk was a very different (timid) player compared to the guy we saw in say weeks 1 or 2. 
Especially during the first and second quarter the last few games.  Was that maybe because of the new OC and a lack of trust in the play call?  KC was staring at the rush even when he had time, he looked like Ponder trying to find an escape route instead of throwing the ball. 

But it seemed that he would settle down about halfway through the 2nd quarter.  That I just don't understand.
its an instinct that has to be unlearned now.  no different than a kid that gets smacked all the time,  anytime they hear a loud voice or somebody makes a sudden movement they flinch.... well KC got hit so much this year he is suffering from it.  we have seen the same thing from other QBs,  early on they stand in there and take the punishment,  but over time they start to rush throws,  have their mechanics get out of whack,  tuck and run to soon,  take check downs to early...etc.   I said in early december that the team maybe needed to admit that this wasnt their year and to get Sloter some experience since KC was looking shell shocked already by then and there werent going to be any magic fixes to that OL.... of course our slim playoff hopes won out,  but in hingsight I still think it would have maybe been a better option since the kid has really no bright lights experience.
The problem with that explanation is that Cousins didn't get hit at any historic rate.  Here are the numbers.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=TM

Using total hits doesn't take account of the number of pass attempts, but even just using total hits, he was in the middle.  Tally that as a hit percentage and I'm sure he was hit at a lesser percentage than most.

As to why the Theilen-Cousins connection fell off, my best guess is that Cousins didn't want to risk the throws.  The pressure was mounting and I'm sure he heard about his turnovers losing games.  Theilen was more covered later.  Theilen was probably getting frustrated because all of last year his QB trusted him to go get the ball and those throws just didn't come this year.  I forget what game it was, but there's also the Theilen quote saying that sh!t has been there all game.
The stats mislead this quite a bit since each positive play made by the opposing defense doesn't end with a QB hit or sack. QB hits as a whole are actually down due to the liberal roughing calls. More specific to Kirk, he was pressured on 45% of his drop backs, which is among the worst in the league. There is not really a direct correlation between pressure and sacks/hits although you think there would be. 

So why is that the case? Well... Kirk started getting rid of the ball faster as the season progressed. That explains his air yards per attempt nose diving minus the Dolphins game. Kirk also does a fairly good job of protecting himself after throwing the ball. So although pressured on almost 1/2 his snaps he was able to get the ball out or avoid a hit. But that still severely limits what you can do on offense. 
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#28
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@silverjoel said:
@JimmyinSD said:
@greediron said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Watch at 1:13 remaining in Q2. Once Kirk escapes the pocket Thielen immediately turns his route back to about the 10 yard line where he is a readily available target and honestly the safer throw if ball placement leaves it towards the sideline. 

The frustration isn't solely due to that one play though. I think it finally boiled over because Kirk typically will only take the underneath pass when flushed out of the pocket. There are many examples where he has open receivers down the field but he takes whats underneath because its the "check down". It's really something that's plagued Kirk going back to his days in Washington (minus the year with McVay). 

A lot of people are saying he doesn't see the field and I partially agree with it. But bigger picture after being pressured so much all season long it finally got into his head that he just needs to take the first man available vs. trying to push the ball down the field. Kirk was a very different (timid) player compared to the guy we saw in say weeks 1 or 2. 
Especially during the first and second quarter the last few games.  Was that maybe because of the new OC and a lack of trust in the play call?  KC was staring at the rush even when he had time, he looked like Ponder trying to find an escape route instead of throwing the ball. 

But it seemed that he would settle down about halfway through the 2nd quarter.  That I just don't understand.
its an instinct that has to be unlearned now.  no different than a kid that gets smacked all the time,  anytime they hear a loud voice or somebody makes a sudden movement they flinch.... well KC got hit so much this year he is suffering from it.  we have seen the same thing from other QBs,  early on they stand in there and take the punishment,  but over time they start to rush throws,  have their mechanics get out of whack,  tuck and run to soon,  take check downs to early...etc.   I said in early december that the team maybe needed to admit that this wasnt their year and to get Sloter some experience since KC was looking shell shocked already by then and there werent going to be any magic fixes to that OL.... of course our slim playoff hopes won out,  but in hingsight I still think it would have maybe been a better option since the kid has really no bright lights experience.
The problem with that explanation is that Cousins didn't get hit at any historic rate.  Here are the numbers.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=TM

Using total hits doesn't take account of the number of pass attempts, but even just using total hits, he was in the middle.  Tally that as a hit percentage and I'm sure he was hit at a lesser percentage than most.

As to why the Theilen-Cousins connection fell off, my best guess is that Cousins didn't want to risk the throws.  The pressure was mounting and I'm sure he heard about his turnovers losing games.  Theilen was more covered later.  Theilen was probably getting frustrated because all of last year his QB trusted him to go get the ball and those throws just didn't come this year.  I forget what game it was, but there's also the Theilen quote saying that sh!t has been there all game.
The stats mislead this quite a bit since each positive play made by the opposing defense doesn't end with a QB hit or sack. QB hits as a whole are actually down due to the liberal roughing calls. More specific to Kirk, he was pressured on 45% of his drop backs, which is among the worst in the league. There is not really a direct correlation between pressure and sacks/hits although you think there would be. 

So why is that the case? Well... Kirk started getting rid of the ball faster as the season progressed. That explains his air yards per attempt nose diving minus the Dolphins game. Kirk also does a fairly good job of protecting himself after throwing the ball. So although pressured on almost 1/2 his snaps he was able to get the ball out or avoid a hit. But that still severely limits what you can do on offense. 
I never once said QB hits and sacks correlate to QB pressures.  They are both included in QB pressures, however.  I'm also not sure where you get 45%.  I cannot find anything that states that number.  Maybe you calculated it yourself and forgot to add sacks as pass plays?  606 pass attempts + 40 sacks + whatever they consider a QB scramble = at least 646 pass plays.

The statement was about Cousins getting hit/afraid of being hit.  Not pressured.  If Cousins is afraid of defenders being near him, that's pretty sad.  Granted, penalties would not be counted as QB hits, so the various roughing the passer calls, possibly DPI and deffensive holding would be non-counted plays that the QB could get hit.  So, there were a few unaccounted for QB hits, but not many.

I'm pretty sure NFL Nextgen stats gives a game-by-game time to throw stat.  I bet the first half of the season is very close to the last half of the season, meaning he held the ball just as long.  IMO, defenses just disguised coverages better (past the easier 1st half schedule), and much like Bradford, Cousins picks where he's going to throw pre-snap.  It didn't matter what was going on in the actual play, Cousins was throwing short because that's where he decided to prior to the snap and the densenses baited him to do it.
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#29
He's wound tight and isn't calm. Even when he wins he's hyped up. "You like that, you like that".
It gets worse under the bright lights.
He can't carry a team. He needs a great team around him to play well.
For what ever reason, he couldn't beat winning teams, or even hapless Buffalo for that matter.
The latter part of the season when needed the most, he became check down Charlie and looked like Ponder part 2.
He appears to be the guy the Skins thought he was.
Apparently the Vikings thought the team around him was good enough.
Hopefully, the coaching changes and an improved offensive line will be the magic formula, but I'm skeptical.
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#30
I actually think thielen made the wrong cut on that play. Also when thielen has to to take account of four routes while the people in front of them fail to do their jobs 40% of the time then he can get loud and act like a child on the sidelines. I like thielen but this was not his best moment.
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