What's wrong with Thielen?

[Guest]

@medaille said:
I’m not convinced that we have a Thielen problem as much as
we have a coaching/Cousins problem.  I
think schematically on offense, we have one thing we do well, and we do it
really well, but we don’t really have a resilient offense.  We don’t have other options to try when the
defense takes things away or if we have to work within the limitations of
injuries.  I think by now, we should have
clearly defined what our counterplan is for the handful of strategies teams
tried for neutralizing Jefferson.  By
now, we should have developed a competent rushing attack.  One that we can use to kickstart the offense
if the passing game is struggling.  We
pass to setup the run, and that’s fine, but ideally you should be equally adept
at running to setup the pass as well.  I
think the first thing I would try with teams that are going to bracket
Jefferson, is that I would switch Jefferson and KJ’s role.  If the offense is designed to maximize one
players production, and the defense is countering that by bracketing/following
Jefferson, see if you can open things up by getting defenses to commit a ton of
resources to the 3rd or 4th option on the play.  Now you have their 3rd best CB covering
the primary option on the play.  I’m not
saying we should abandon running inside, but we should clearly prioritize
running outside.  I think I would like to
see some packages where we go heavy and try to assert our will physically on a
team.  Not that it would be our mainstay
or anything, but it’s just so outside what we normally do that it could make defenses
have to think more about how to defend us. 
I’d also like to see us have a better quick passing game, where instead
of having plays that designed to maximize Jeffersons production, the focus
would be on finding the best matchup presnap and getting them the ball.

While I agree with this, I do think Thielen is still on the sharp decline. Even this gameplan you laid out-- which I like a lot-- suggests feeding Osborne more rather than Thielen.
The run game is a disaster and now with a banged up O-line I'm not sure it gets fixed. That's a big problem and I personally do not think the problem is Dalvin.
While the coaching this year has been much better overall and in many areas, there are still some areas like the run game and at times the defense where the old regime's knowledge would have been useful.
Top offseason priorities:
1. Boot Donatelle and get a (hopefully much better) DC in house.2. Use what little draft capital we have to draft WR, DT, LB.3. Use what little free agency bucks we have to sign an impact player or two. Doesn't matter what position but we need more.4. Draw a line in the sand at the QB position-- either draft Kirk's replacement, commit to him for 3 more years, or *gasp* trade him and show up on your hands and knees at Tom Brady's doorstep.

[Guest]

@pattersaur said:

@medaille said:
I’m not convinced that we have a Thielen problem as much as
we have a coaching/Cousins problem.  I
think schematically on offense, we have one thing we do well, and we do it
really well, but we don’t really have a resilient offense.  We don’t have other options to try when the
defense takes things away or if we have to work within the limitations of
injuries.  I think by now, we should have
clearly defined what our counterplan is for the handful of strategies teams
tried for neutralizing Jefferson.  By
now, we should have developed a competent rushing attack.  One that we can use to kickstart the offense
if the passing game is struggling.  We
pass to setup the run, and that’s fine, but ideally you should be equally adept
at running to setup the pass as well.  I
think the first thing I would try with teams that are going to bracket
Jefferson, is that I would switch Jefferson and KJ’s role.  If the offense is designed to maximize one
players production, and the defense is countering that by bracketing/following
Jefferson, see if you can open things up by getting defenses to commit a ton of
resources to the 3rd or 4th option on the play.  Now you have their 3rd best CB covering
the primary option on the play.  I’m not
saying we should abandon running inside, but we should clearly prioritize
running outside.  I think I would like to
see some packages where we go heavy and try to assert our will physically on a
team.  Not that it would be our mainstay
or anything, but it’s just so outside what we normally do that it could make defenses
have to think more about how to defend us. 
I’d also like to see us have a better quick passing game, where instead
of having plays that designed to maximize Jeffersons production, the focus
would be on finding the best matchup presnap and getting them the ball.

While I agree with this, I do think Thielen is still on the sharp decline. Even this gameplan you laid out-- which I like a lot-- suggests feeding Osborne more rather than Thielen.
The run game is a disaster and now with a banged up O-line I'm not sure it gets fixed. That's a big problem and I personally do not think the problem is Dalvin.
While the coaching this year has been much better overall and in many areas, there are still some areas like the run game and at times the defense where the old regime's knowledge would have been useful.
Top offseason priorities:
1. Boot Donatelle and get a (hopefully much better) DC in house.2. Use what little draft capital we have to draft WR, DT, LB.3. Use what little free agency bucks we have to sign an impact player or two. Doesn't matter what position but we need more.4. Draw a line in the sand at the QB position-- either draft Kirk's replacement, commit to him for 3 more years, or *gasp* trade him and show up on your hands and knees at Tom Brady's doorstep.

I think we all agree that Thielen is in some sort of
decline, probably just differing on whether we think it’s gradual or accelerated.  I suggested KJO, both because he’s still
young but also I heard someone mention he was a solid fit for the Cooper Kupp
role in the rams offense.  I think you
could probably rotate all 3 of our top receivers into that role in our system
as it’s not as dependent on physicality and blocking here and I imagine that
would cause a decent amount of chaos for teams that are trying to isolate
coverage against Jefferson.


I also think there’s this conversation being had across the
internet for the Vikings, where one side think our issues are due to lack of
skill position talent and others think it’s due to playcalling/Cousins.  For me, I just don’t really see the benefit in
adding WR talent to this roster instead of at a position of greater need.  I think a lot of our problems on offense are
due to our inexperienced coaches on that side of the ball combined with just
needing to get better on the OLine.  For
my offseason plan, assuming we’re not cutting/trading Thielen/Cook would be to continue
to work on the OLine and getting better scheme fits for our defense.  I think replacing Donatelle would be a very
logical and obvious choice.

[Guest]

at this point he’s just become a decoy, unfortunately…   

[Guest]

https://twitter.com/Purple_Post/status/1...Va0zmureyQ&s=19

[Guest]

@supafreak84 said:
I still go back to the fact that we had Williams, Davis, and Kyle Hamilton all fall into our laps for the taking and we traded all the way down for terrible value to select a non-impact player who was running 4th on the depth chart before his catastrophic injury. Getting little to no return from this draft class has hurt this team down the stretch. People can stroke Kwesi all they want, but the fact is outside of adding Zadarius in free agency after he spurned the Ravens and trading for Hockenson mid season, he has done NOTHING in the way of adding impact and/or depth to this roster. Hicks and Phillips have made little impact on a defense that currently ranks 31st in total defense. 

Kwesi has a lot to prove this offseason 

You also need to add Sullivan to the list of FA misses. He is 2nd worst Slot Corner in the league. Here is a little blurb that Alec from the Athletic wrote after the Packers beat down. 

Vikings cornerback Chandon Sullivan is allowing the second-highest passer rating in the NFL on throws to pass catchers in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted him a league-high 77 times; 62 of those passes have been caught for 745 yards.

We are getting absolutely gashed over the middle with slant routes that we have no idea how to defend. Opposing Teams' Third Down Conversion rate on passes targeted to slot receivers with Sullivan in Coverage is sickening. He also is a crappy tackler and lets receivers get extra YAC with his routine arm tackle misses. 

[Guest]

@Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/Purple_Post/status/1...Va0zmureyQ&s=19

With Thielen at the bottom of Kirk's progressions, our crappy Oline can't hang on long enough for Kirk to get to Thielen before the pressure is in his face. 

[Guest]

@supafreak84 said:
I still go back to the fact that we had Williams, Davis, and Kyle Hamilton all fall into our laps for the taking and we traded all the way down for terrible value to select a non-impact player who was running 4th on the depth chart before his catastrophic injury. Getting little to no return from this draft class has hurt this team down the stretch. People can stroke Kwesi all they want, but the fact is outside of adding Zadarius in free agency after he spurned the Ravens and trading for Hockenson mid season, he has done NOTHING in the way of adding impact and/or depth to this roster. Hicks and Phillips have made little impact on a defense that currently ranks 31st in total defense. 

Kwesi has a lot to prove this offseason 

Value aside since we didn't get market for the trade down I don't agree. 

Jameson Williams would have been a fine pick and the Vikings liked him. He doesn't help you early in the season due to his injury which goes against what they were attempting to do this off-season. They would have taken Olave or Wilson if they had made it to their pick. Just didn't happen. Davis didn't have value to them and Tonga has been equally impressive off waivers. Kyle Hamilton didn't fit the defensive systems they wanted to play. You could argue with a scheme change if that answer changes. But you only know what you know. 

Cine was a fine pick and still believe he'll play a big role moving forward. He didn't play early on but as a prospect, I personally was a big fan. The goal was to build a fast and physical backbone which then played into the Asamoah pick, who will be a starter next year. Akayleb Evans will at worst be a 4 year depth CB and Ingram is serviceable with some level of upside. Later on they picked up Otomewo, Chandler, and Nailor who are depth. 

Not saying Kwesi won the draft, but it was far from a burning fire. 

[Guest]

As for Thielen, is he declining? Yes. He still is capable of getting open but isn't holding his separation. Since he is oftentimes the 3rd or 4th read in the offense by the time Kirk progresses to him he is covered up. Kind of a tough situations based on how the offense is so heavily built around Jefferson. 

Long-term AT still can play in the NFL. Just will be a tough discussion that will need to be revisited in a few weeks since the $20M cap number in 2023. They can move money around on his deal to kick the can again, but do you ultimately want to do that on a 33 year old player? Since I am always around more in the off-season to discuss as of today I think they have about 3 options: 

1. Kick the can and restructure his contract again. Assuming we don't mess around with void years right now they could get his cap number down to $12.8M. But the downside is it only balloons his 2024 cap number to $25M and would have dead money of $14M. Post June 1 dead money would be $8.3M in 2024 and then another $5.7M in 2025. 

2. They could cut him outright this off-season and eat dead money of $13.5M. That saves $6.4M on the 2023 cap. 

3. They could cut him with a post June-1 designation this off-season and take dead money of $6.5M in 2023 and $7M in 2024. That saves $13.5M come June. 

At this point #2/#3 just seem like better options considering you just walk yourself into the same exact question next off-season with arguably a worse outcome cap wise. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@supafreak84 said:
I still go back to the fact that we had Williams, Davis, and Kyle Hamilton all fall into our laps for the taking and we traded all the way down for terrible value to select a non-impact player who was running 4th on the depth chart before his catastrophic injury. Getting little to no return from this draft class has hurt this team down the stretch. People can stroke Kwesi all they want, but the fact is outside of adding Zadarius in free agency after he spurned the Ravens and trading for Hockenson mid season, he has done NOTHING in the way of adding impact and/or depth to this roster. Hicks and Phillips have made little impact on a defense that currently ranks 31st in total defense. 

Kwesi has a lot to prove this offseason 

Value aside since we didn't get market for the trade down I don't agree. 

Jameson Williams would have been a fine pick and the Vikings liked him. He doesn't help you early in the season due to his injury which goes against what they were attempting to do this off-season. They would have taken Olave or Wilson if they had made it to their pick. Just didn't happen. Davis didn't have value to them and Tonga has been equally impressive off waivers. Kyle Hamilton didn't fit the defensive systems they wanted to play. You could argue with a scheme change if that answer changes. But you only know what you know. 

Cine was a fine pick and still believe he'll play a big role moving forward. He didn't play early on but as a prospect, I personally was a big fan. The goal was to build a fast and physical backbone which then played into the Asamoah pick, who will be a starter next year. Akayleb Evans will at worst be a 4 year depth CB and Ingram is serviceable with some level of upside. Later on they picked up Otomewo, Chandler, and Nailor who are depth. 

Not saying Kwesi won the draft, but it was far from a burning fire. 

I was good with Williams not making an early impact as long as we could get him for the stretch run and the playoffs.  He would have added a different element to the offense and getting him moving forward opposite JJ would have went a long way in solidifying that position into the future. Now its a position we have to worry about with Thielen's contract, age, and declining production. 

I hated the Cine pick on multiple levels. The rest of our draft has been about as non-impactful as you can get which has hurt us this year. We drafted ten players...TEN PLAYERS on a roster that needed impact and we've gotten nothing, depending on how you look at Ingram's mediocre first season. So, I would classify it as a burning fire as it relates to this season and I'm not hugely optimistic about it moving forward. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
As for Thielen, is he declining? Yes. He still is capable of getting open but isn't holding his separation. Since he is oftentimes the 3rd or 4th read in the offense by the time Kirk progresses to him he is covered up. Kind of a tough situations based on how the offense is so heavily built around Jefferson. 

Long-term AT still can play in the NFL. Just will be a tough discussion that will need to be revisited in a few weeks since the $20M cap number in 2023. They can move money around on his deal to kick the can again, but do you ultimately want to do that on a 33 year old player? Since I am always around more in the off-season to discuss as of today I think they have about 3 options: 

1. Kick the can and restructure his contract again. Assuming we don't mess around with void years right now they could get his cap number down to $12.8M. But the downside is it only balloons his 2024 cap number to $25M and would have dead money of $14M. Post June 1 dead money would be $8.3M in 2024 and then another $5.7M in 2025. 

2. They could cut him outright this off-season and eat dead money of $13.5M. That saves $6.4M on the 2023 cap. 

3. They could cut him with a post June-1 designation this off-season and take dead money of $6.5M in 2023 and $7M in 2024. That saves $13.5M come June. 

At this point #2/#3 just seem like better options considering you just walk yourself into the same exact question next off-season with arguably a worse outcome cap wise. 

That 3rd option is looking like the best option. I'm guessing they will try to move him on draft day, and if they don't find any takers (which they won't) he will be cut in June. That is a good chunk of cap savings for next season