He's right imo - and Vegas is unusually wrong

[comet52]

Pretty sure vegas lines are set where they can get the most action.  Seeing our win number creep up show what the pros think so the line adjusts.

That's what I was pointing out in my last paragraph.

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6.5 last year for a team with all those weapons and a Flores defense? Sure, that was mostly about Darnold, but it shouldn't have been THAT hard to predict he'd play better in the best offense he'd ever been in. 

He had 6 years of crap on tape, people are only going to risk so much on that changing. The belief that KOC can up a qb's game wasn't nearly as strong then as it is now.

Right now the 49ers are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. Ranked 6th in the NFL, and in a tight grouping up with the Lions, Commanders and Bengals, all well ahead of the Vikings. We're talking about a team who won 6 games last year and has lost 11 of 22 starters from their Super Bowl appearance year before last. Make that make sense. 

It's mostly about the soft schedule, history, Shanahan's rep, and assuming McCaffery comes back healthy. They are a different team in that case. But like the Vikings they've drafted poorly and they are maybe on the downside of a curve, whereas we are presumably on the upside until cap hell arrives.

I don't know that much about betting, but wouldn't you agree that the real thing to watch is not where the money IS, but where it's GOING? I read the other day that the Vikings have had more money placed on them than any team in the NFL.

Well that's why I observed that the Viking win total has moved, showing money bet that they will do better than 9 wins. It's also important to know that those lines don't move because Joe Schmoe bets them, even if he bets a lot of money. Bookies move them when known pros bet.

But no one has a crystal ball or perfect information, so we are always dealing with probabilities here, not guarantees aka it's why they call it gambling.