OT: Texas Flood

[Montana Tom]

Don’t make this political.  

I didn't take this as political.  I took it as factual.

[JimmyinSD]

NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year.  Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  

timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-flood...ng-budget/

if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

[mblack]

NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year.  Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

Ok then…

The National Weather Service, one of NOAA's six major offices, is perhaps the most recognizable component of the agency for its weather forecasts and urgent warnings about hurricanes, floods, heat waves, tornadoes and tsunamis.
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politic...inal-state

[JimmyinSD]

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  

timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-flood...ng-budget/

if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

of course the NWS "legislative director" is going to blame budget cuts, but that simply doesnt sound like the case as the system did its job,  the locals and the local Emergency Management systems either ignored, or otherwise dropped the ball.

[mblack]

So was the office staffed or understaffed?

Concerns about staffing and budget cuts at the National Weather Service have been in the news since the Trump administration took office in January.

The San Antonio and San Angelo weather forecasts offices, which issued warnings for the affected areas, are currently operating with 23 meteorologists on staff, according to union officials for the National Weather Service. The two offices have a combined total of 10 vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio, leaving them slightly short of being fully staffed. The warning coordination meteorologist plays a crucial role in coordinating with local officials about severe weather emergencies.

We can only imagine what would/could have happened if the 10 positions were filled and had a warning coordinator especially given they saw this coming.

[Bullazin]

So was the office staffed or understaffed?

We can only imagine what would/could have appended if the 10 positions were filled and had a warning coordinator especially given they saw this coming.

The San Antonio and San Angelo weather forecasts offices, which issued warnings for the affected areas, are currently operating with 23 meteorologists on staff, according to union officials for the National Weather Service. The two offices have a combined total of 10 vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio, leaving them slightly short of being fully staffed. The warning coordination meteorologist plays a crucial role in coordinating with local officials about severe weather emergencies.

This is similar to what I read.  I hope it’s not true. Regardless it’s devastating.

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I didn't take this as political.  I took it as factual.

I think blackie was playing with me

[purplefaithful]

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  
timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-flood...ng-budget/
if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

[mblack]

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

At the bold...
The only problem here is that the Chief of Texas Emergency Management W. Nim Kidd already blamed NOAA and NWS San Antonio.
You know, the same guy who was "secretly" in the running for the FEMA job

[purplefaithful]

At the bold...
The only problem here is that the Chief of Texas Emergency Management W. Nim Kidd already blamed NOAA and NWS San Antonio.
You know, the same guy who was "secretly" in the running for the FEMA job

I never said it wasn't time for CYA though

[JimmyinSD]

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

its a tragedy for sure,  but this should serve as a reminder to all of us the risks we take when we dont heed those seemingly daily warnings from the NWS.  We are all likely guilty of doing exactly what the lady in the CBS report said... they may have got the warnings, but simply ignored them as it wasnt imminent for them at the time.

I remember I did a weather spotters course through the NWS for our county and the director from the NWS that conducted the course said they always have to balance that when to warn,  vs when not to,  as they know that they will become the little boy that cried wolf,  I am afraid that even though there will be plenty of fingers pointed and blame laid in this,  that its largely became an issue of people not paying attention to the warnings they were given.  I also remember about 40 years ago we went to a boy scout camp in a hilly area,  we were told that in the even of bad weather we would likely have to abandon our chosen camping location as it was prone to flooding when the area got saturated,  sure enough after a couple days of intermittent showers,  one evening the sky blew up and we had to move camp, good thing we did as a few hours later there was about 2 feet of water rolling through where we had been located.  I dont care what the feds put on a % of flooding, some of that is negotiated by cities and developers,  if you own property by a river,  you have likely seen it flood and should be more aware of whats happening upstream and with the weather.  and the local EM should have been all over this incident.

I know the NWS is a convenient target,  but when watches and warnings were issued well ahead of time,  IMO this is a local matter and that is where the focus needs to be.  Not necessarily making scape goats out of those folks in texas,  but for all of us to be more aware of what is happening around us and to make sure our local EMS teams are well staffed, trained, and funded.