Quote: @Zanary said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
Thats my main fear of drafting a QB. We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent.
THIS.
I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts. With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.
2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)
Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.
To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust.
The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.
Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.
Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine [I’m feeling generous]).
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ Zanary said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
Thats my main fear of drafting a QB. We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent.
THIS.
I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts. With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.
2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)
Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.
To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust.
The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.
Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.
Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine [I’m feeling generous]).
Do we? We can ride the Kirko train for 4-5 more years easily if we choose to do so.
Quote: @AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ Zanary said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
Thats my main fear of drafting a QB. We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent.
THIS.
I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts. With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.
2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)
Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.
To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust.
The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.
Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.
Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine [I’m feeling generous]).
Do we? We can ride the Kirko train for 4-5 more years easily if we choose to do so.
Personally, five more years of paying Kirk is a much scarier proposition then just drafting someone new. Also, if the team felt your way I highly doubt they’d be letting him play out the last year on his current deal. JMO.
Bust rate on 39 year old QBs has to be way higher than 32%.
A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes. A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success. If they don't find it, move on to the next guy. Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance. Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.
Quote: @Greylock said:
A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes. A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success. If they don't find it, move on to the next guy. Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance. Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.
Much as they had a horseshoe up their asz going from Favre to Rogers, I commend the Pack org for how they actually executed those transitions.
Lets hope it doesnt work out for Love, cause the optics of how they managed that are also good.
Kirk's already an outlier in terms of consistency and reliability, so it'd be odd to dismiss his ability to play at his current level a bit longer.
As for the QBs shown...eh? Kyler shows every sign of being a bust despite having the tools. Watson might be his own worst enemy...which Allen certainly understands.
I actually would be all for getting Lance, as long as he came very cheaply...because he'd have a chance to either rise or fall without the pressures of what SF traded for him. He'd have some known tools, be very inexpensive, and could compete with Hall...
...while they both learn behind Kirk for probably 3 seasons. Barring a VERY unlikely disastrous season, I think Kirk's back for one more extension...because there's no other viable plan in place.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
I have nothing against Brock Purdy, seems like a nice kid and such, but....FU to the 49ers for getting lucky with him and not paying the price for trading the farm to get Lance and setting back the franchise years.
I'm not ready to crown Purdy as a franchise QB yet. Now that there's film on him, let's see how well he plays this season
And to think, there were people on this board who thought sending KC to San Francisco in a trade for Lance was not only a real possibility but made total sense.
Quote: @minny65 said:
For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game. 4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance. Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers. Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run. Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.
Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players. Impressive 4th round pick. Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL. Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has looked very good in two straight games for the browns. 5th round pick.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@ Greylock said:
A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes. A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success. If they don't find it, move on to the next guy. Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance. Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.
Much as they had a horseshoe up their asz going from Favre to Rogers, I commend the Pack org for how they actually executed those transitions.
Lets hope it doesnt work out for Love, cause the optics of how they managed that are also good.
This is what I hammer on Rick about. Even when he thought he had a QB, he never would take another real shot. Gotta keep trying, even if you have your guy who is nearing the end.
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