BEVS aren't new anymore and ICE isnt going away - but its majority share of the pie will erode from here on out.
Tech and economies of scale will drive costs down. Solid State Batteries will be accelerate things even more. They will be lighter, far greater range and charge faster. I'd say we're 36 - 42 mos away from 400-600 miles per charge batteries. Need for precious metals will decline as well.
Thats when one of the cars in my own garage will be BEV.
I think this group is responding to the Ford alliance with Tesla, which likely will also encompass the VW/Audi group as well as Nissan, who seemed to be working its own deal as of last week.
Quote: @Kentis said:
You know what not many talk about? The curb weight of EV’s. A conventional F150 weighs between 4069 lbs & 5697 lbs, where a F150 Lightning EV weighs between 6015 lbs & 6893 lbs. Thats alot more weight on the road, leading to increased wear & tear on the roadways as well as more severe car crashs & fires that are almost impossible to extinguish.
......and because EV's don't require gasoline, EV owner's avoid paying the gasoline taxes that contribute to roadway repair & maintenance.
Plus, the roadside assistance angle: EV's wheels lock up when not running so any vehicle that shits the bed on the roadside will require a flatbed tow. And for the EV-only manufacturers that could be a LONG haul back to a service center compared to a dealership (most EV-only manufacturers have limited dealerships or none at all). $$$
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ purplefaithful said:
I'm surprised they didnt get Ford and Volkswagen Motor Group on board.
That said, you are still going to need to charge at home minimally some of the time. Thats true for houses, townhomes, condos and rental apts. That is a big undertaking too - will take years to build that part of the infrastructure.
For the forseeable future, I would find it impossible to own an EV here in the midwest w/out a level 2 in our garage.
But this is still a big deal and the world cannot rely on Tesla Supercharger network alone
Many EVs come with a Level 1 trickle charger that does about 3-5 miles of range per hour (horrible) but there are subsidies both nationally and locally to have a Level 2 EV charger in your home. Even your local utility might have one for sale via them. You do need it either hardwired (best and safest) or a 240 outlet in your garage for it. The vast majority of people only travel 40 miles a day with their vehicles. 5 states have 85% of the EV market so a long way to go. Some car manufacturers (like Ford) include a nice Level 2 EV charger with a limited assortment of their vehicles. The issue is its really expensive to put in the wiring for an EV charger to many existing residences.
The issue right now for EV manufacturers is: they have a ton of stock.
It can be expensive, especially if you need a whole, new electrical box. Then you are looking at 5 figures easy.
Most of my clients are spending about $1500-$2k to get a 240 plumbed into their garage; add $699 for a juice box off of amazon or from auto mfgr on top if it.
Now the electricity suppliers are getting in on it too - Excel is big up here and they'll plumb a 240 in and let you rent the level 2 box. Program it to charge from 12:01 am to 559 am - when kWh are least expensive.
I only paid about $950 for my at home charger ($500 for the Tesla box and $450 for plumbing). That was about 5 years ago. Charging in my area Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA has never been a problem. There is a supercharger right in Scranton and then one every 40 minutes in every direction. This is mostly because there is not a lot of Tesla's in my area yet so the competion to get to a charger has never been a problem at any of the sites which usually have about 8 stations. The most I ever saw at one station was probably 4.
The thing is that it is much better on the battery and also $$$ to charge at home and program the car to charge at the lowest electricity rate. I think it takes about 3 hours to charge from 25 to 200. I also only charge to 80% which is also supposed be better for the battery unless I know I am going to be driving more. So far I have about 130K miles and I am thrilled with the car.
I don’t think an EV only world is a sane one. I think the people that are climate absolutists
who want to destroy the conventional carbon based ways of doing things before
having a better system are very delusional.
I think for people that are worried about carbon, power generation is a
much better place to focus their attention.
EV’s have a lot of flaws I don’t think they’re going to iron out
quickly. Where EVs make the most sense
is for homeowners where they are driving within town all the time and recharge
at home, preferably from solar/wind that they own. I think EVs for a renter who parks on the
street sounds like a nightmare. I think
EV Trucks for a person who uses their truck to tow a long distance sounds like
a nightmare. I think a competent
charging network would go a longs ways in making EVs a viable option here in
the lake/plains country where a lot of our driving is in less population dense
areas. I think right now, my family
spends too much time in long weekend excursions that are borderline impossible with
an EV unless I spent $2k or whatever to install a level 2 charger at the cabin
and my extended family’s houses. It
would work as a second vehicle for commuting to and from work during the week,
but not as an only vehicle. An expanded
supercharging network would upgrade that situation from impossible to doable
(but lightly annoying) as it would be introducing a 20 minute forced reststop
at some point into the equation. I think
a common criticism people have is supercharger reliability/openness. Maybe someone with an EV can comment, but I
hear that people frequently run into the issue of having range anxiety because
they don’t trust that the charger on the map will be open when they get there and/or
will be functional (not broken). I think
a lot of that would be alleviated if there was always another charger not far away
and a better system for knowing which ones were broken and which ones were
working. I’d be curious how the charging
system would fare for the weekend lake herd, where everyone is flooding the
roads from the metro out to their cabins at roughly the same times Friday and
Sunday. I could see that overwhelming
whatever charging network they could put in place. Mainly, more than a supercharging network, I
think there just needs to be a level 2 charger at wherever people are going to
park for the night for it to not feel anxiety inducing and that’s a lot of
places, so like every hotel would probably have to have the majority of their
parking spots with a charging station to support the majority of us having EVs.
Quote: @Knucklehead said:
@ Kentis said:
You know what not many talk about? The curb weight of EV’s. A conventional F150 weighs between 4069 lbs & 5697 lbs, where a F150 Lightning EV weighs between 6015 lbs & 6893 lbs. Thats alot more weight on the road, leading to increased wear & tear on the roadways as well as more severe car crashs & fires that are almost impossible to extinguish.
......and because EV's don't require gasoline, EV owner's avoid paying the gasoline taxes that contribute to roadway repair & maintenance.
In Indiana, when you get your plates for the year, EV owners are charged more to make up for the taxes they don’t pay when purchasing gasoline. A guy I work with bitches about it every year because his plates cost a lot more than mine for the same year vehicle. The government is going to get theirs, almost no way around it.
Quote: @Knucklehead said:
@ Kentis said:
You know what not many talk about? The curb weight of EV’s. A conventional F150 weighs between 4069 lbs & 5697 lbs, where a F150 Lightning EV weighs between 6015 lbs & 6893 lbs. Thats alot more weight on the road, leading to increased wear & tear on the roadways as well as more severe car crashs & fires that are almost impossible to extinguish.
......and because EV's don't require gasoline, EV owner's avoid paying the gasoline taxes that contribute to roadway repair & maintenance.
33 states have imposed fees on EVs meant to make up for lost gas tax revenue. The other 17 will likely follow.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Kentis said:
You know what not many talk about? The curb weight of EV’s. A conventional F150 weighs between 4069 lbs & 5697 lbs, where a F150 Lightning EV weighs between 6015 lbs & 6893 lbs. Thats alot more weight on the road, leading to increased wear & tear on the roadways as well as more severe car crashs & fires that are almost impossible to extinguish.
This kinda reminds me of Thomas Edison, who built a basic infrastructure and several power plants generating DC electricity because, at the time, AC was too dangerous. One simple invention, the transformer, changed all that.
It's important for science and technology to move forward despite challenges. It's inevitable that, over time, EV weight will go down and batteries will get smaller, lighter and more stable.
or are EVs the DC electricity of the auto industry and the real step forward is a technology that is currently not getting the attention? Are nuclear, or some other source of energy or energy storage going to be what puts the nail in the grave of the internal combustion engine? or maybe it will be solid fuels for autos that makes that transition. I dont think that the current direction is likely the best solution for solving our worlds future transportation needs. Batteries and electricity have come a long way in the last 20 years, but where we are today is a long way aways from where it would need to be at to achieve the lofty dreams of the politicians that are demanding X by year 2030 or whatever, legislation can push tech evolution, but it cant dictate it, and at some point they have to consider what the working person can afford, we are already seeing inflation pushing costs for younger families into ridiculous heights. I have a coworker that just got notice that his daycare is taking a 16% annual increase starting August 1st, that is a huge pill for a young family to bear, the auto industry has to have a market for all these new innovations or they are all just a waste of time.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
BEVS aren't new anymore and ICE isnt going away - but its majority share of the pie will erode from here on out.
Tech and economies of scale will drive costs down. Solid State Batteries will be accelerate things even more. They will be lighter, far greater range and charge faster. I'd say we're 36 - 42 mos away from 400-600 miles per charge batteries. Need for precious metals will decline as well.
Thats when one of the cars in my own garage will be BEV.
I think we will need to see the SS-battery find a market in other major areas ( solar system batteries or other stable load and condition uses ) to drive the COP down , and to drive the innovation of the technology before it gets over the many hurdles that will find it a viable replacement for the the L-ion battery used currently. See the link for known hurdles facing the SSbattery for auto use.
https://ts2.space/en/the-downside-of-inn...plications.
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