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WAY too early 53-man roster prediction
#11
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I like what you did overall. You obviously fill the right "needs" and get good value in doing so. 

Would be a little careful on the post-June 1 cuts since you couldn't use that cap space until June. You hold the cap hit until then. But regardless you can still make the contracts you signed work one way or another. 

The one thing I'm not as convinced about is the Vikings trading down. Everything they do in general suggests they'd trade down, because its what they always do. But analytics are equally as important to the team and there is a strong suggesting that you want to stay in the top-15 picks since the % chance of drafting a pro bowler or all pro player is significantly increased vs. pick 20. The Vikings proved that wrong in 2020 with Justin Jefferson but I don't think its as easy of a decision. 
If OTC's numbers are correct, then we save $5M by cutting Rudy pre-June 1 and $8M post June 1. 
OTC is a good source. But if you use the Post-June designation you carry the full cap hit until June 1st. Then you get relief. So it doesn't help you in free agency but you could wait to sign draft picks before the relief kicks in. 

So Rudy plays out this way: 

Post-June 1st designation or cut after the calendar date June-1: Carry the $9.45 cap hit until June 1st. Then you get relief of $8M with $1.45M of dead money hitting in 2021 and $2.9M in 2022. 

If you just outright cut him you get the relief immediately but the benefit is only $5.1M since the entire dead money amount of $4.35M hits immediately. 


So with that I would expect the Vikings to outright cut Rudy and not use a post June-1 designation. 
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#12
Add in a restructure for Barr and I'm all for it.

Sorry, missed Barr for some reason
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#13
If no Rankins, what about if Geno Atkins was available for $5 million a year?  He might still have juice, def has the knowledge to be effective.  

A DL of Hunter-Pierce-Atkins-Phillips, Fedi, Wonnum, Lynch, Hercules would have added 3 more wins (Seattle, Tennessee, Dallas) to last year's team
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#14
Quote: @Skodin said:
If no Rankins, what about if Geno Atkins was available for $5 million a year?  He might still have juice, def has the knowledge to be effective.  

A DL of Hunter-Pierce-Atkins-Phillips, Fedi, Wonnum, Lynch, Hercules would have added 3 more wins (Seattle, Tennessee, Dallas) to last year's team
Always loved Atkins going back to his Senior Bowl, but he'll be 33 next year, so he'd be more of a bridge. So if we miss on Rankins or a similar player, Atkins would be a nice fallback option to sign for a year or two until we can draft our long-term 3T. But there's no two ways around it. We need a 3T bad, and a starting one. And come to think of it, I probably should've drafted another nose somewhere in the middle rounds for the run downs. Pierce with another fatty next to him would be hard to run against. 
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#15
I can see us releasing both Barr and Hughes, and possibly keeping Wilson.
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#16
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
THE LABOR:The 2020 salary cap was $198M. NFL set a floor of $175M for 2021, but many are saying that it won’t be that low, especially if they add a 17th game. Some estimating it could be as high as $195. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and say $185M. The Vikings, currently at $189M, would be $4M over that cap. 
Players under contract released:Shamar Stephen - Savings: $4M Dan Bailey  (post June 1) - Savings: $3M Kyle Rudolph (post June 1) - Savings: $8M  (tally: $11M under)
Players under contract restructured:Harrison Smith - Savings $2M Anthony Barr - Savings $2M (tally: $15M under)
Players under contract extended: Riley Reiff - Savings: $0M Danielle Hunter - Savings $2M (tally: $17M under)
UFA players resigned:Todd Davis, LB, Vikings: $1M (tally: $16M under)
UFA players of significance not resigned: Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Dakota Dozier, Ameer Abdullah, Sean Mannion, Jaleel Johnson
ERFA and RFA players of significance tendered: Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Boone, Chad Beebe, Chris Jones
External free agents signed:Sheldon Rankins, 3T, 26 yo, Saints: $8MLane Taylor, RG, 31 yo, Packers: $3M (tally: $5M left for draft)
3T is the Vikings most urgent need and there are only two in the draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Can we risk going into the draft needing one to fall to us?  Rankins is a former 1st rounder who’s had a series of injuries that should keep his price down and the Saints, in cap hell, will not be able to resign him. Same with Taylor. He’s been hurt both of the last two seasons. Packers will focus on their other FA guard, Corey Linsley. Both are injury risks that should come seriously discounted. But, if healthy, both could be home runs.

THE BABY:Vikings will trade down from 14 into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, then use several of their extra picks to trade back into round one.
OL: 10LT: Riley Reiff, Blake BrandelLG: Ezra Cleveland, Alijah Vera Tucker (D1b)C: Garrett Bradbury, Kyle HintonRG: Lane Taylor (FA2), Dru SamiaRT: Brian O’Neill, Oli Udoh
SKILL: 14QB: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond (D5)RB: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Michael BooneFB: CJ HamWR: Justin Jefferson, Bisi JohnsonWR: Adam Thielen, Jaelen Darden (D4), Beebe, TE: Irv Smith Jr, Tyler Conklin, Hale Hentges
DL: 10LDE: Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi OdenigboNT: Michael Pierce, Armon Watts3T: Sheldon Rankins (FA1), James Lynch, Herc Mata’afaRDE: Jaelan Phillips (D1a after trade down for 2nd), DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes
LB: 6SLB: Anthony Barr, Blake LynchMLB: Eric Kendricks, Cameron SmithWLB: Todd Davis, Troy Dye
DB: 10CB: Jeff Gladney, Chris JonesCB: Cam Dantzler, Kris BoydCB: Mike Hughes, Harrison HandS: Harrison Smith, Myles DornS: Caden Sterns (D3), Josh Metellus
ST: 3LS: Andrew DepaolaK: Jose Borregales (D6)P: Britton Colquit

If we can pull it off, this puts the Vikings in Super Bowl contention in '21. 





Nice work! Dan Morgan may also be in the mix at TE as his contract tolled last year.
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#17
Quote: @Knucklehead said:
@MaroonBells said:
THE LABOR:The 2020 salary cap was $198M. NFL set a floor of $175M for 2021, but many are saying that it won’t be that low, especially if they add a 17th game. Some estimating it could be as high as $195. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and say $185M. The Vikings, currently at $189M, would be $4M over that cap. 
Players under contract released:Shamar Stephen - Savings: $4M Dan Bailey  (post June 1) - Savings: $3M Kyle Rudolph (post June 1) - Savings: $8M  (tally: $11M under)
Players under contract restructured:Harrison Smith - Savings $2M Anthony Barr - Savings $2M (tally: $15M under)
Players under contract extended: Riley Reiff - Savings: $0M Danielle Hunter - Savings $2M (tally: $17M under)
UFA players resigned:Todd Davis, LB, Vikings: $1M (tally: $16M under)
UFA players of significance not resigned: Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Dakota Dozier, Ameer Abdullah, Sean Mannion, Jaleel Johnson
ERFA and RFA players of significance tendered: Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Boone, Chad Beebe, Chris Jones
External free agents signed:Sheldon Rankins, 3T, 26 yo, Saints: $8MLane Taylor, RG, 31 yo, Packers: $3M (tally: $5M left for draft)
3T is the Vikings most urgent need and there are only two in the draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Can we risk going into the draft needing one to fall to us?  Rankins is a former 1st rounder who’s had a series of injuries that should keep his price down and the Saints, in cap hell, will not be able to resign him. Same with Taylor. He’s been hurt both of the last two seasons. Packers will focus on their other FA guard, Corey Linsley. Both are injury risks that should come seriously discounted. But, if healthy, both could be home runs.

THE BABY:Vikings will trade down from 14 into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, then use several of their extra picks to trade back into round one.
OL: 10LT: Riley Reiff, Blake BrandelLG: Ezra Cleveland, Alijah Vera Tucker (D1b)C: Garrett Bradbury, Kyle HintonRG: Lane Taylor (FA2), Dru SamiaRT: Brian O’Neill, Oli Udoh
SKILL: 14QB: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond (D5)RB: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Michael BooneFB: CJ HamWR: Justin Jefferson, Bisi JohnsonWR: Adam Thielen, Jaelen Darden (D4), Beebe, TE: Irv Smith Jr, Tyler Conklin, Hale Hentges
DL: 10LDE: Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi OdenigboNT: Michael Pierce, Armon Watts3T: Sheldon Rankins (FA1), James Lynch, Herc Mata’afaRDE: Jaelan Phillips (D1a after trade down for 2nd), DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes
LB: 6SLB: Anthony Barr, Blake LynchMLB: Eric Kendricks, Cameron SmithWLB: Todd Davis, Troy Dye
DB: 10CB: Jeff Gladney, Chris JonesCB: Cam Dantzler, Kris BoydCB: Mike Hughes, Harrison HandS: Harrison Smith, Myles DornS: Caden Sterns (D3), Josh Metellus
ST: 3LS: Andrew DepaolaK: Jose Borregales (D6)P: Britton Colquit

If we can pull it off, this puts the Vikings in Super Bowl contention in '21. 





Nice work! Dan Morgan may also be in the mix at TE as his contract tolled last year.
yep, fantastic post
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#18
Quote: @mgobluevikes said:
I can see us releasing both Barr and Hughes, and possibly keeping Wilson.
Wilson would be half the price. Problem is he's also half the player. What's more, Barr's release would hit the cap with $8M in dead money. In other words, they would be paying as much to dead money as they would have to pay Wilson. Vikings typically aren't big fans of dead money spending. 

It comes down to this: $15M gets you Barr. $8M + $8M dead gets you Wilson. 

Hughes is all about his health. 
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#19
Quote: @Knucklehead said:
@MaroonBells said:
THE LABOR:The 2020 salary cap was $198M. NFL set a floor of $175M for 2021, but many are saying that it won’t be that low, especially if they add a 17th game. Some estimating it could be as high as $195. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and say $185M. The Vikings, currently at $189M, would be $4M over that cap. 
Players under contract released:Shamar Stephen - Savings: $4M Dan Bailey  (post June 1) - Savings: $3M Kyle Rudolph (post June 1) - Savings: $8M  (tally: $11M under)
Players under contract restructured:Harrison Smith - Savings $2M Anthony Barr - Savings $2M (tally: $15M under)
Players under contract extended: Riley Reiff - Savings: $0M Danielle Hunter - Savings $2M (tally: $17M under)
UFA players resigned:Todd Davis, LB, Vikings: $1M (tally: $16M under)
UFA players of significance not resigned: Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Dakota Dozier, Ameer Abdullah, Sean Mannion, Jaleel Johnson
ERFA and RFA players of significance tendered: Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Boone, Chad Beebe, Chris Jones
External free agents signed:Sheldon Rankins, 3T, 26 yo, Saints: $8MLane Taylor, RG, 31 yo, Packers: $3M (tally: $5M left for draft)
3T is the Vikings most urgent need and there are only two in the draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Can we risk going into the draft needing one to fall to us?  Rankins is a former 1st rounder who’s had a series of injuries that should keep his price down and the Saints, in cap hell, will not be able to resign him. Same with Taylor. He’s been hurt both of the last two seasons. Packers will focus on their other FA guard, Corey Linsley. Both are injury risks that should come seriously discounted. But, if healthy, both could be home runs.

THE BABY:Vikings will trade down from 14 into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, then use several of their extra picks to trade back into round one.
OL: 10LT: Riley Reiff, Blake BrandelLG: Ezra Cleveland, Alijah Vera Tucker (D1b)C: Garrett Bradbury, Kyle HintonRG: Lane Taylor (FA2), Dru SamiaRT: Brian O’Neill, Oli Udoh
SKILL: 14QB: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond (D5)RB: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Michael BooneFB: CJ HamWR: Justin Jefferson, Bisi JohnsonWR: Adam Thielen, Jaelen Darden (D4), Beebe, TE: Irv Smith Jr, Tyler Conklin, Hale Hentges
DL: 10LDE: Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi OdenigboNT: Michael Pierce, Armon Watts3T: Sheldon Rankins (FA1), James Lynch, Herc Mata’afaRDE: Jaelan Phillips (D1a after trade down for 2nd), DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes
LB: 6SLB: Anthony Barr, Blake LynchMLB: Eric Kendricks, Cameron SmithWLB: Todd Davis, Troy Dye
DB: 10CB: Jeff Gladney, Chris JonesCB: Cam Dantzler, Kris BoydCB: Mike Hughes, Harrison HandS: Harrison Smith, Myles DornS: Caden Sterns (D3), Josh Metellus
ST: 3LS: Andrew DepaolaK: Jose Borregales (D6)P: Britton Colquit

If we can pull it off, this puts the Vikings in Super Bowl contention in '21. 





Nice work! Dan Morgan may also be in the mix at TE as his contract tolled last year.
David Morgan? Forgot about him. I don't think he's still under contract, is he? But if he's healthy, I'd love to have him back. 
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#20
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@Knucklehead said:
@MaroonBells said:
THE LABOR:The 2020 salary cap was $198M. NFL set a floor of $175M for 2021, but many are saying that it won’t be that low, especially if they add a 17th game. Some estimating it could be as high as $195. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and say $185M. The Vikings, currently at $189M, would be $4M over that cap. 
Players under contract released:Shamar Stephen - Savings: $4M Dan Bailey  (post June 1) - Savings: $3M Kyle Rudolph (post June 1) - Savings: $8M  (tally: $11M under)
Players under contract restructured:Harrison Smith - Savings $2M Anthony Barr - Savings $2M (tally: $15M under)
Players under contract extended: Riley Reiff - Savings: $0M Danielle Hunter - Savings $2M (tally: $17M under)
UFA players resigned:Todd Davis, LB, Vikings: $1M (tally: $16M under)
UFA players of significance not resigned: Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Dakota Dozier, Ameer Abdullah, Sean Mannion, Jaleel Johnson
ERFA and RFA players of significance tendered: Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Boone, Chad Beebe, Chris Jones
External free agents signed:Sheldon Rankins, 3T, 26 yo, Saints: $8MLane Taylor, RG, 31 yo, Packers: $3M (tally: $5M left for draft)
3T is the Vikings most urgent need and there are only two in the draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Can we risk going into the draft needing one to fall to us?  Rankins is a former 1st rounder who’s had a series of injuries that should keep his price down and the Saints, in cap hell, will not be able to resign him. Same with Taylor. He’s been hurt both of the last two seasons. Packers will focus on their other FA guard, Corey Linsley. Both are injury risks that should come seriously discounted. But, if healthy, both could be home runs.

THE BABY:Vikings will trade down from 14 into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, then use several of their extra picks to trade back into round one.
OL: 10LT: Riley Reiff, Blake BrandelLG: Ezra Cleveland, Alijah Vera Tucker (D1b)C: Garrett Bradbury, Kyle HintonRG: Lane Taylor (FA2), Dru SamiaRT: Brian O’Neill, Oli Udoh
SKILL: 14QB: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond (D5)RB: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Michael BooneFB: CJ HamWR: Justin Jefferson, Bisi JohnsonWR: Adam Thielen, Jaelen Darden (D4), Beebe, TE: Irv Smith Jr, Tyler Conklin, Hale Hentges
DL: 10LDE: Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi OdenigboNT: Michael Pierce, Armon Watts3T: Sheldon Rankins (FA1), James Lynch, Herc Mata’afaRDE: Jaelan Phillips (D1a after trade down for 2nd), DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes
LB: 6SLB: Anthony Barr, Blake LynchMLB: Eric Kendricks, Cameron SmithWLB: Todd Davis, Troy Dye
DB: 10CB: Jeff Gladney, Chris JonesCB: Cam Dantzler, Kris BoydCB: Mike Hughes, Harrison HandS: Harrison Smith, Myles DornS: Caden Sterns (D3), Josh Metellus
ST: 3LS: Andrew DepaolaK: Jose Borregales (D6)P: Britton Colquit

If we can pull it off, this puts the Vikings in Super Bowl contention in '21. 





Nice work! Dan Morgan may also be in the mix at TE as his contract tolled last year.
David Morgan? Forgot about him. I don't think he's still under contract, is he? But if he's healthy, I'd love to have him back. 

Irv - Conk - Morgan, strong group of TEs to pair with the dynamic duo at WR and a premier backfield

Sorry Rudy, best of luck of playing for the Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers next year
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