Weatherly has looked better this year but still has a long way to go before he deserves comparison to Hunter. Hunter was a steal and a huge surprise - but he was known before the draft and expected to go on the second day.
I'm just dubious that any "physical freak formula" reliably generates great players from late rounds of the draft. Even if Weatherly becomes a good player, that same formula has produced Edmond Robinson, Moritz Boeringer, Bucky Hodges, and Ade Aruna.
And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.
Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.
Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ FSUVike said:
And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.
Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
Completely agree regarding all the trade backs. I've always been a firm believer that because players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds have a big enough gap statistically to be successful over later rounds that I would hoard those versus consistently moving down to take multiple players in the 6th or 7th. Drives me frickin crazy when Rick does that.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ FSUVike said:
And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.
Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
Completely agree regarding all the trade backs. I've always been a firm believer that because players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds have a big enough gap statistically to be successful over later rounds that I would hoard those versus consistently moving down to take multiple players in the 6th or 7th. Drives me frickin crazy when Rick does that.
Most draft analysis I have read over the years shows the chance of getting a starter in the draft drops significantly after the 3rd round.
Rounds 4 -7 are not that significantly different. In fact your are just as likely to sign an UDFA starter similar to the odds of rounds 4-7. ( for us, a guy like Adam stands out as an all-pro UDFA) Other UDFA who are on our current roster who have started or may start sometime are guys like, Eric Wilson, Holten Hill, Chad Bebbe, T. Bower, M. Boone, Zylstra.
But going back to both your points. I would agree with you if we trading picks in the first 3 rounds just accumulate later round picks but that is not what Rick has done. The last two trades of our 3rd picks other then staying in the round and moving around like we did with Elflein (moved up 9 slots) or even Delvin (2nd round move up) etc....the last 2 draft day trade downs with any of our top 3 rounds are:
(not 100% sure but this is what I found without too much research - time permitting)
2016 - Rick traded our 3rd pick # 86 to the Dolphins who drafted a bust WR
Rick received back a 6th that draft (not sure if it was the german wr or David Morgan) and a 3rd and 4th round pick the following year (again not sure on details but we moved up for Elflein in the 3rd (not sure if with this extra pick and then in the fourth we drafted Jaleel and Ben Gedeon). So I would say we got the much much better end of that deal. Lastly on 2016 and late round pick accumulation - both Weatherly and Kearse were 7th round picks.
2018 - Rick traded our 94th (3rd round pick) and slide down 8 picks to 102 (4th round) selected Holmes and also got a 6th
My point is that Rick rarely trades down with the first 3 round picks without staying in those rounds. What he does do is maneuver around each round. What he also does is use those later round picks (4th and beyond, where the success rate is pretty much the same to find a starter) and increase his odds of success with more choices. Then the icing on the cake is we really go after (and pay) those UDFA's.
He uses all statistics for each round and each player athleticism scores and all sources (rounds, UDFA, Free agents) in building the team which we all agree (or at least most national pundits agree) is one of the most talented rosters today. After winning GM of the year last year he may end up doing again this year.
Rick has been knocking it out of the park with UDFA's. Holten Hill has the look another star in the making.
One difference is having the coaches to develop players with potential. Hopefully that trend will continue with some of our young offensive linemen.; especially at guard. I'm confident they have found their center and tackles.
Still need a good coaching staff to turn the athlete into a football player.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
I'll bet the second person Hunter would thank for his success (after Dre) would be the big fella they added at 3T this off-season.
Richardson was huge for that d line. What he is able to do up the middle opens up a ton in terms of being able to get to the passer.
Quote: @jargomcfargo said:
Rick has been knocking it out of the park with UDFA's. Holten Hill has the look another star in the making.
One difference is having the coaches to develop players with potential. Hopefully that trend will continue with some of our young offensive linemen.; especially at guard. I'm confident they have found their center and tackles.
Are you sure it isn't Zimmer that has been hitting it out of the park? The Holten Hill priority seems more the MO of Zimmer than Rick
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