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I notice that the newer of those articles is now almost 3 months old, and aren't having to deal with morning headlines of "DOW DOWN 500 TO START" and what-not like we've gotten to hear constantly going into Spring.
I wonder what they'd say, today?
I will say this... during obamas reign the dow about doubled from around 9k when he came into office in 08 to about 18k IIRC. While it lunacy to say this was due to his policies or his presidency, considering the recovery had already begun prior to him taking office, but it did continue to grow almost his entire reign. (he didnt cause it to drop, but I dont know how much of the gains during the end of Bush and most of Obamas first term and even into his second were what I would call "real" gains.
There was billions upon billions of Govt borrowed money thrown into the economy that created what I would classify as a false market. This increase was not created through real economic growth, it was not done in a sustainable fashion. This was a false positivity created by bailing out failed bankers and businessmen for short term security as well as dumping billions into over priced, under delivered public works projects throught the ARRA and its subsequent variations.
Now we are still seeing some of that Govt driven growth in the markets IMO, but not nearly as much as before. IMO what was have seen in the last 12 months is much more speculative growth, which is scary as hell because there will always be a point where the failed speculation becomes reality and people pull money from the market. unfortunately those that are professional speculators will get theirs out long before the average investor is able to see the downfall and those that really are investing for their future will end up losing their assets in the process.
I am still putting money into the market, but I am not confident at all in seeing any short term gains as I am putting it in with the belief that we are likely going to see a major correction in the next few years, but also in the long term that we will see it recover and hopefully the tortoise will win the day in 20 years when I trade in my working shoes on something a bit more relaxing.
point is I voted for Trump, but about the only thing I think he has done for the market is maybe remove a few growth obstacles and gave the business world a shot of optimism, but if we end up in a trade war, I dont think all the make America great again hats will be able to save the gains that we have enjoyed the last 10 years. I think American industry and the American worker is to greedy for prosperity. When the ownership is percieved to be making money the workers will demand more, whether or not the ownership has it to give, but the ownership will also use the Trump protections as a way of artificially jacking their prices domestically for extra gains thereby nullifying the trade protections. (of course just like the pharmaceutical companies, they will still sell their products at a competitive price where they dont have the protections and somehow do just fine)
Long story short... UGH.
Quote: @Zanary said:
I notice that the newer of those articles is now almost 3 months old, and aren't having to deal with morning headlines of "DOW DOWN 500 TO START" and what-not like we've gotten to hear constantly going into Spring.
I wonder what they'd say, today?
Fair point.
I chose those two items in the OP post (above) for this reason. It was from a site that accurately predicted the election/ and has bona-fides on the key measures of our present economy.
1) When orange- Cheeto (your term) was elected, there was considerable concern (on this board) on what it meant to our economy. (I looked before I posted my OP... those posts are in the ether).
I couldn't add to those posts (gone)... but believe me... my OP (strong Trump economy) was the considerable minority view. Many economy 'gurus' on this board, predicted utter catastrophe.
2) By any measure (even with the recent China tariff/Nafta reconsideration concerns) the 'Trump economy' is significantly better than the Obama economy from 1 1/2 yrs ago.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
I will say this... during obamas reign the dow about doubled from around 9k when he came into office in 08 to about 18k IIRC. While it lunacy to say this was due to his policies or his presidency, considering the recovery had already begun prior to him taking office, but it did continue to grow almost his entire reign. (he didnt cause it to drop, but I dont know how much of the gains during the end of Bush and most of Obamas first term and even into his second were what I would call "real" gains.
There was billions upon billions of Govt borrowed money thrown into the economy that created what I would classify as a false market. This increase was not created through real economic growth, it was not done in a sustainable fashion. This was a false positivity created by bailing out failed bankers and businessmen for short term security as well as dumping billions into over priced, under delivered public works projects throught the ARRA and its subsequent variations.
Now we are still seeing some of that Govt driven growth in the markets IMO, but not nearly as much as before. IMO what was have seen in the last 12 months is much more speculative growth, which is scary as hell because there will always be a point where the failed speculation becomes reality and people pull money from the market. unfortunately those that are professional speculators will get theirs out long before the average investor is able to see the downfall and those that really are investing for their future will end up losing their assets in the process.
I am still putting money into the market, but I am not confident at all in seeing any short term gains as I am putting it in with the belief that we are likely going to see a major correction in the next few years, but also in the long term that we will see it recover and hopefully the tortoise will win the day in 20 years when I trade in my working shoes on something a bit more relaxing.
point is I voted for Trump, but about the only thing I think he has done for the market is maybe remove a few growth obstacles and gave the business world a shot of optimism, but if we end up in a trade war, I dont think all the make America great again hats will be able to save the gains that we have enjoyed the last 10 years. I think American industry and the American worker is to greedy for prosperity. When the ownership is percieved to be making money the workers will demand more, whether or not the ownership has it to give, but the ownership will also use the Trump protections as a way of artificially jacking their prices domestically for extra gains thereby nullifying the trade protections. (of course just like the pharmaceutical companies, they will still sell their products at a competitive price where they dont have the protections and somehow do just fine)
Long story short... UGH.
OK. Don't believe IBD.
Howz about msn?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/...ar-AAuBVYc
And, you're right. Those strong economic numbers were not a product of increased (1T) government stimulus spending.
Those numbers were borne of drastically reduced regulations and the promise (then delivery) of Congressionally delivered corporate tax cuts.
Even liberal msn had to admit that Trump is on the verge of something Obama never delivered. 3% GDP growth for the year.
I'll come back to this thread in awhile, when it surely happens. 
Quote: @savannahskol said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
I will say this... during obamas reign the dow about doubled from around 9k when he came into office in 08 to about 18k IIRC. While it lunacy to say this was due to his policies or his presidency, considering the recovery had already begun prior to him taking office, but it did continue to grow almost his entire reign. (he didnt cause it to drop, but I dont know how much of the gains during the end of Bush and most of Obamas first term and even into his second were what I would call "real" gains.
There was billions upon billions of Govt borrowed money thrown into the economy that created what I would classify as a false market. This increase was not created through real economic growth, it was not done in a sustainable fashion. This was a false positivity created by bailing out failed bankers and businessmen for short term security as well as dumping billions into over priced, under delivered public works projects throught the ARRA and its subsequent variations.
Now we are still seeing some of that Govt driven growth in the markets IMO, but not nearly as much as before. IMO what was have seen in the last 12 months is much more speculative growth, which is scary as hell because there will always be a point where the failed speculation becomes reality and people pull money from the market. unfortunately those that are professional speculators will get theirs out long before the average investor is able to see the downfall and those that really are investing for their future will end up losing their assets in the process.
I am still putting money into the market, but I am not confident at all in seeing any short term gains as I am putting it in with the belief that we are likely going to see a major correction in the next few years, but also in the long term that we will see it recover and hopefully the tortoise will win the day in 20 years when I trade in my working shoes on something a bit more relaxing.
point is I voted for Trump, but about the only thing I think he has done for the market is maybe remove a few growth obstacles and gave the business world a shot of optimism, but if we end up in a trade war, I dont think all the make America great again hats will be able to save the gains that we have enjoyed the last 10 years. I think American industry and the American worker is to greedy for prosperity. When the ownership is percieved to be making money the workers will demand more, whether or not the ownership has it to give, but the ownership will also use the Trump protections as a way of artificially jacking their prices domestically for extra gains thereby nullifying the trade protections. (of course just like the pharmaceutical companies, they will still sell their products at a competitive price where they dont have the protections and somehow do just fine)
Long story short... UGH.
OK. Don't believe IBD.
Howz about msn?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/...ar-AAuBVYc
And, you're right. Those strong economic numbers were not a product of increased (1T) government stimulus spending.
Those numbers were borne of drastically reduced regulations and the promise (then delivery) of Congressionally delivered corporate tax cuts.
Even liberal msn had to admit that Trump is on the verge of something Obama never delivered. 3% GDP growth for the year.
I'll come back to this thread in awhile, when it surely happens.
who says I dont believe anything. whats not to believe? the DOW was up to an amazing high, and it has lost a big chunk of that in the last couple months, it goes up and down. I dont stump for either party so dont try and "gotcha" me. I see bull shit and poor leadership and ultimately IMO that will lead to a collapse, regardless of what the media spins about it. I expect to see inflation jump as a result of these trade policies and as a result those of us here in the mid west ( largely ag based economies) will get hit the hardest. The grain farmers are already being tight fisted and its being felt in every midwest town, and regardless of what those on the coasts want to believe, our American economy is very midwest dependent. If Trump hits on imports, we should expect our exports to get hit hard in return. If foreign markets get closed or hampered to our grain exports then you can expect 1 of 2 things.. massive farm bankruptcies, or massive spending to keep farmers from going tits up. if the farmers go upside down you will have lost a lot of manufacturing due to nobody buying equipment and other items. I dont know the actual dollars, but few people realize the amount of money that is circulated through Americas ag system. I am sure there are other American products and industries that will be similarly affected.
you know what sucks, those steel tariffs that were put in place to protect the American goods... well the domestic suppliers used that opportunity to raise their prices since their foreign competitors had to do the same. how is that going to put more Americans to work? how is that going to get Americans to buy more American made products.... Like I said above, Greed will undue what ever advantage Trump gives this country and ultimately that confidence that is feeding the stock market will wane. Hell if inflation takes off it will push up interest rates which will take money away from the stock market and back into more secured forms of investments. Maybe that will be good?
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