Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
no offense, but kind of a dumb question. would he have been a 7th round pick with all the skills he has shown in college and the physical traits he has? the answer is no, no way he ends up a 7th rounder based on his history and skill set. so to say that if his performance had been that of a 7th rounder he would have been cut is screwy.
and no, anybody that has decent upside and shows a desire to work hard will be given more than 1 year, especially at a position that often requires a couple years to really settle in at. and receiving stats aside... his run blocking is tops on the team and although it doesnt generate fantasy numbers WR blocking is a huge part of the game. If a team cant effectively run the ball, it severely hinders the teams ability to pass the ball.
Some of this is why I completely gave up on Fantasy Football (even midseason) I felt like it was ruining what I liked about watching the game. That and my life got a lot busier.
Quote: @Mike Olson said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
no offense, but kind of a dumb question. would he have been a 7th round pick with all the skills he has shown in college and the physical traits he has? the answer is no, no way he ends up a 7th rounder based on his history and skill set. so to say that if his performance had been that of a 7th rounder he would have been cut is screwy.
and no, anybody that has decent upside and shows a desire to work hard will be given more than 1 year, especially at a position that often requires a couple years to really settle in at. and receiving stats aside... his run blocking is tops on the team and although it doesnt generate fantasy numbers WR blocking is a huge part of the game. If a team cant effectively run the ball, it severely hinders the teams ability to pass the ball.
Some of this is why I completely gave up on Fantasy Football (even midseason) I felt like it was ruining what I liked about watching the game. That and my life got a lot busier.
for me it was when I was sitting in the dome while our game was going on and i was watching the fantasy update scroll on the board above the enzone instead of watching the game or enjoying my time with my kids. I was really into fantasy and was pretty good, but it really became a distraction that my life didnt need.
Quote: @Bolstad79 said:
@ twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof. How many are deemed a bust after 1 year? 2 years? vs 4 years?
I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.
Would he have made it to year two had he been a 7th round pick?
Does him having a nearly guaranteed deal keep him on the team for 4 years?
It's absolutely nuts how much people are overreacting about Treadwell. He was hurt for much of his first year, so I think we can just dismiss that. And when he's gotten his chance, he's shown some nice things.
I'll tell ya one thing, if a 7th round pick made that catch and that block that he made against the Packers, folks would be pretty jacked about the sleeper we just drafted.
Perspective might be the problem. Here are the receivers taken in the 1st round the last 3 years. Not a star among them and all but maybe two are still struggling to find their feet.
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Amari Cooper
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Bolstad79 said:
@ twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof. How many are deemed a bust after 1 year? 2 years? vs 4 years?
I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.
Would he have made it to year two had he been a 7th round pick?
Does him having a nearly guaranteed deal keep him on the team for 4 years?
It's absolutely nuts how much people are overreacting about Treadwell. He was hurt for much of his first year, so I think we can just dismiss that. And when he's gotten his chance, he's shown some nice things.
I'll tell ya one thing, if a 7th round pick made that catch and that block that he made against the Packers, folks would be pretty jacked about the sleeper we just drafted.
Perspective might be the problem. Here are the receivers taken in the 1st round the last 3 years. Not a star among them and all but maybe two are still struggling to find their feet.
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Amari Cooper
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
I was going to post something similar, so thanks for sharing.
The number of spread offenses in college have boosted the number of "draftable" receivers available in a given year. Teams tend to fall in love with measurables and not necessarily production and film. Many of these college receivers that go in the first round or two are measurable guys from Power 5 programs with projected potential. Many of the later round guys have major character issues, lack that ideal size, lack the ideal speed/agility measurables, or were from small schools where projection becomes an issue.
Looking at that list, lots of guys who excelled at the underwear olympics and from "big time" programs.
While Treadwell has some physical limitations, I've been encouraged by his play the past few weeks.
Quote: @claykenny said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Bolstad79 said:
@ twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof. How many are deemed a bust after 1 year? 2 years? vs 4 years?
I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.
Would he have made it to year two had he been a 7th round pick?
Does him having a nearly guaranteed deal keep him on the team for 4 years?
It's absolutely nuts how much people are overreacting about Treadwell. He was hurt for much of his first year, so I think we can just dismiss that. And when he's gotten his chance, he's shown some nice things.
I'll tell ya one thing, if a 7th round pick made that catch and that block that he made against the Packers, folks would be pretty jacked about the sleeper we just drafted.
Perspective might be the problem. Here are the receivers taken in the 1st round the last 3 years. Not a star among them and all but maybe two are still struggling to find their feet.
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Amari Cooper
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
I was going to post something similar, so thanks for sharing.
The number of spread offenses in college have boosted the number of "draftable" receivers available in a given year. Teams tend to fall in love with measurables and not necessarily production and film. Many of these college receivers that go in the first round or two are measurable guys from Power 5 programs with projected potential. Many of the later round guys have major character issues, lack that ideal size, lack the ideal speed/agility measurables, or were from small schools where projection becomes an issue.
Looking at that list, lots of guys who excelled at the underwear olympics and from "big time" programs.
While Treadwell has some physical limitations, I've been encouraged by his play the past few weeks.
I just think at this point, we should have seen more. To me it's hard to believe he only has 12 catches in his career.
The
research on the last 3 years is useful, but only shows performance in their first few years. It doesn't tell us much about whether any of these
will have good NFL careers, and may be skewed by a couple of bad years for
college WRs. So I looked at a 10 year period of drafts from 2005-2014. I wanted
a time frame long enough to mitigate the effect of a particularly bad or good
draft class, and consider players in the league long enough to truly determine
if they played up to expectations over a period longer than a year or two.
(Part 1, too long for a single post apparently)
2005
ROOKIE YEAR STATS
Braylon
Edwards, Browns 32-512
(Injured) Good WR
Troy
Williamson, Vikings 24-372 Dud
Mike
Williams,
Lions 29-350 Dud
Matt
Jones,
Jaguars
36-432 Dud/Drug
washout
Mark
Clayton,
Ravens
44-471 OK
player
Roddy
White,
Falcons
43-506
Good WR
2006
Santonio
Holmes, Steelers 49-824 Good
WR
2007
Calvin
Johnson,
Lions 48-756 HOFer
Ted
Ginn,
Dolphins 34-420 OK
receiver
Dwayne
Bowe,
Chiefs
70-995 Good
player
Robert
Meachem,
Saints
12-289* (2008; injured
2007) OK player
Craig
Davis,
Chargers 20-188 Dud
Anthony
Gonzales,
Colts
37-576 Injured
3rd season
2008
No
WRs drafted in 1st round
2009
Darrius
Heyward-Bey, Raiders
9-124 OK
WR
Michael
Crabtree,
49ers
48-625 Good
WR
Jeremy
Maclin,
Eagles
56-773 Good
WR
Percy
Harvin,
Vikings
60-790 SMH
Hakeem
Nicks,
Giants
47-790 Good
WR
Kenny
Britt,
Titans
42-701 OK
WR
(Part 2, 2010-2014)
2010 ROOKIE YEAR STATS
Demaryius
Thomas, Broncos 22-283 Good
WR
Dez
Bryant,
Cowboys
45-561 Good
WR
2011
AJ
Green,
Bengals
65-1,057 Good
WR
Julio
Jones,
Falcons
54-959 Good
WR
Jonathon
Baldwin, Steelers 21-254 Dud
2012
Justin
Blackmon,
Jaguars
64-865 Dud/Drug
washout
Michael
Floyd,
Cardinals
45-562 TBD
Kendall
Wright,
Titans
64-626 TBD
AJ
Jenkins,
49ers
0-0 (8-13 year
2) Dud
2013
DeAndre
Hopkins,
Texans 52-802 Good
WR
Cordarelle
Patterson, Vikings 45-469 TBD
2014
Sammy
Watkins,
Bills 65-982 TBD
Mike
Evans,
Bucs 68-1,051 Good
WR
Odell
Beckham,
Giants
91-1,305 Great
WR
Brandin
Cooks,
Saints 53-550 Good
WR
Kelvin Benjamin,
Panthers
73-1,008 Good
WR
My observations:
- 36 WRs were drafted in round 1 over the 10 years from
2005-2014.
- 17 became good or better WRs. I applied this to
players who were fairly high contributors over more than their first
contract, and were their team’s “#1 WR” at some point.
- All of the eventually-good WRs caught at least 40
passes in a full rookie year. Braylon Edwards caught 32 in 10 games, then
61 his 2nd season. Demaryius Thomas caught 22, but only played in 10
games (7 starts) due to injuries. He did have impressive performances (e.g.,
an 8-catch game) when he was healthy.
[*]4 others (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Cordarelle
Patterson, and Sammy Watkins) are TBD - any could still emerge to be
considered #1 WRs. All caught at least 40 passes as rookies. [*]12 WRs caught 50 or more passes as rookies, and 23
caught 40 or more.[*]The only 1st-round WR to catch fewer passes than Laquon
Treadwell in a healthy rookie year was the 49ers A.J. Jenkins. He was
healthy his entire rookie season, active for only 3 games, targeted once
and dropped that pass.
The theory that it takes 3 years before a WR is likely to
contribute should be set aside, because 61% (22 of 36) of these players caught
at least 40 passes and gained more than 500 yards as rookies. There are some
star players (Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones) who really "break out" in
their 2nd or 3rd seasons - but they were at least significant contributors as
rookies.
Laquon Treadwell's most favorable statistical comparison is probably Saints'
pick (27th overall in 2007) Robert Meachem, who was injured and missed the
entire 2007 season, then caught 12 passes in 2008. Meachem had 3 seasons where
he caught 40-45 passes, and played in the NFL a total of 7 years.
This has some limitations because it is limited to first-round picks (which is
Treadwell's peer group). Some WRs have had modest rookie seasons and later
emerged as top WRs; look no further than Adam Thielen. Antonio Brown only
caught 16 passes as a rookie (but 69 his second year). It can happen - but
history says the odds are against it.
|
