Change my mind

[MaroonBells]

Courtney Cronin posted this today: 

Courtney Cronin

@CourtneyRCronin

Why do the Vikings keep running on 2nd/10?

Kubiak: "I think it’s trying to get the ball to our best player, and Dalvin’s one of our best players. Just trying to find plays you think are going to work. Anything to Dalvin -- Dalvin left, Dalvin right, hand it off, throw it to him

Well, yes, there's that. But there's also the fact that if you're passing 80% of the time on 3rd down (which I would imagine is a fairly accurate percentage across the NFL) and you're trying to be your most unpredictable on 1st down (the money down), by splitting run and pass 50/50 (which I would imagine is what most teams TRY to do), then if you have ANY hope at all of being balanced, 2nd down has to be your running down by 80%. Even 2nd and long.

Most fans want a 1st down on every play, but that's not the way OC's think. Or should think. What you're REALLY trying to avoid AT ALL COSTS is 3rd and long, because that plays right into the jaws of the defense. So run the ball on 2nd and long, more often than not, and hope to get 3rd and 4, 5 or 6. If you pass and, sure, you might get the 1st, but you might also be looking at 3rd and 10, a very difficult D&D to convert historically. 

2nd and long is a running down. Always has been and always should be. Especially when your most dangerous player is your RB.

Disagree at will....

[Guest]

I am still thinking about this but here are some facts to consider:

• During the first 2 games, Vikings are bottom 10 in overall running % at 36.6% (https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=rushpct).  To me, that doesn't seem like Kubiak trying to get the ball in Cook's hands.
• On second down, the Vikings run 48% of the time. -- 13th most often in the NFL (Saints rush 63% of the time).  https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html
• Now, admittedly I do not understand the criteria, but the same site says on second down the Vikings have a 47% success rate and an average of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and a 45% success rate on runs and an average of 5.0 yards per carry.  https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/warrensharp/viz/2015OFFSuccessByLocation/NEWSituationalRunPassRatios

I thought I would add some more stats, some you may find surprising:

• This year, Vikings pass 56% of the time on 1st down, 12th in the NFL.  SF is last at 33%.
• On 2nd down with 8-10 yards to go, Minn passes 47% of the time with a 29% success rate and an average gain of 2.1 yards.  This is 4th least passes in such situations.  Only Seattle has a worse YPA than the Vikings in such situation.  In comparison,  when the Vikes runs in such situations, they are at 10.3 yards per carry -- 4th best in the NFL.  The average across the NFL is 69% passes v. 31% runs in such situations.  This is really the answer to Cronin's question.
• When it is 1st and 10 (no prior penalty on the offensive line), Vikings pass 54% of the time.  13th.  Buffalo 1st at 66% and SF last at 34%.  Across the NFL it is 50/50.
• On 3rd down, the Vikings pass 96% of the time, 2nd most in the NFL (behind Detroits 100%).  

[Guest]

@MaroonBells said:
Courtney Cronin posted this today: 

Courtney Cronin

@CourtneyRCronin

Why do the Vikings keep running on 2nd/10?

Kubiak: "I think it’s trying to get the ball to our best player, and Dalvin’s one of our best players. Just trying to find plays you think are going to work. Anything to Dalvin -- Dalvin left, Dalvin right, hand it off, throw it to him

Well, yes, there's that. But there's also the fact that if you're passing 80% of the time on 3rd down (which I would imagine is a fairly accurate percentage across the NFL) and you're trying to be your most unpredictable on 1st down (the money down), by splitting run and pass 50/50 (which I would imagine is what most teams TRY to do), then if you have ANY hope at all of being balanced, 2nd down has to be your running down by 80%. Even 2nd and long.

Most fans want a 1st down on every play, but that's not the way OC's think. Or should think. What you're REALLY trying to avoid AT ALL COSTS is 3rd and long, because that plays right into the jaws of the defense. So run the ball on 2nd and long, more often than not, and hope to get 3rd and 4, 5 or 6. If you pass and, sure, you might get the 1st, but you might also be looking at 3rd and 10, a very difficult D&D to convert historically. 

2nd and long is a running down. Always has been and always should be. Especially when your most dangerous player is your RB.

Disagree at will....

i dont mind it, especially if first and 10 is an incomplete pass. also keeps play action in the mix on same d &d