Updated NFC Playoff Picture (Post Wk 14)

[NFL Draft Guru]

Since my initial post, the NFC is really starting to shape up with only 3 weeks remaining in the regular season. Let's take a look at the current playoff standings and teams still in contention.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) [9-1 NFC]
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-3) [8-2 NFC] {3-1 NFC North}
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-4) [6-4 NFC] {3-1 NFC West}
4. New Orleans Saints (9-4) [7-3 NFC] {3-1 NFC South}

5 (WC1). Carolina Panthers (9-4) [5-4 NFC] {2-2 NFC South}
6 (WC 2). Atlanta Falcons (8-5) [7-2 NFC] {2-1 NFC South}

-- Cutoff --

7. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) [6-3 NFC] {4-0 NFC West}
8. Detroit Lions (7-6) [6-4 NFC] {3-1 NFC North}
9. Green Bay Packers (7-6) [5-4 NFC] {2-2 NFC North}
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-6) [6-4 NFC]


1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) [9-1 NFC]
Key Win/Loss: Panthers (W), Cowboys (W), Seahawks (L), Rams (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Summary: Although the loss of Carson Wentz is a massive thorn in their side moving forward, they were able to put away the NFC East against a tough Rams team on the road. At this point the Eagles can clinch a 1st round bye with a single win in their remaining three games. The win against the Rams also clinched a common opponent tie-breaker against the Vikings for the #1 overall seed, this gives them a significant advantage moving forward. Assuming the Eagles don't lose out (would open up a variety of situations) the Vikings will need a superior NFC record to pass the Eagles for the #1 overall seed.

2. Minnesota Vikings (10-3) [8-2 NFC] {3-1 NFC North}
Key Win/Loss: Saints (W), Lions (split), Packers (W), Rams (W), Falcons (W), Panthers (L)
Remaining Schedule: Bengals, @Packers, Bears
Summary: A loss to the Panthers ended up being a double-whammy for the Vikings since an Eagles victory over the Rams clinched the common opponent tie-breaker between each team. The Vikings did get some help from the Falcons keeping the Saints at arms length for the time being. Goinf forward the Vikings control their own destiny for a 1st round bye. A single win clinches the NFC North, which is step one. Otherwise a loss by both Detroit and GB also clinches the division crown. Currently both the Lions and Packers are still alive due to schedule timing. Effectively one of the two teams is already eliminated with a head-to-head matchup in week 17. Outside the North the Vikings have a firm grasp on the #2 overall seed in the NFC seed. A 12-4 record nearly guarantees them the right to a first round bye. The only situation where they would lose out on tie-breakers at 12-4 is if the Panthers win out to clinch the NFC South and there is not a 3-way tie with any other team at 12-4. In a 3-way tie the Vikings own most tie-breakers with a superior NFC record.

3.  Los Angeles Rams (9-4) [6-4 NFC] {3-1 NFC West}
Key Win/Loss: Cowboys (W), Seahawks (L), Vikings (L), Saints (W), Eagles (L)
Remaining Schedule: @Seahawks, @Titans, 49ers
Summary: Currently the Rams still have possession over the #3 seed in the NFC due to their head-to-head victory over the Saints. Even with a loss to the Eagles the Rams still control their own destiny within the NFC West, their head-to-head matchup in Seattle may be the marque NFC match next weekend. Already losing to the Seahawks earlier this season, being swept would push the Rams into the wildcard picture and force them to pass the Hawks with only two weeks to go. A win give the Rams a game in the standings and give them the chance to clinch the NFC West with one additional win. As a wildcard contender the Rams would be at the mercy of the Falcons and their strong NFC record. On the flip side the Rams still have an outside chance at the #2 seed in the NFC but a head-to-head loss to MN and a weaker NFC record in a 3-way tie really hurt them.

4. New Orleans Saints (9-4) [7-3 NFC] {3-1 NFC South}
Key Win/Loss: Vikings (L), Panthers (sweep), Lions (W), Packers (W), Rams (L), Falcons (L)
Remaining Schedule: Jets, Falcons, @Buccaneers
Summary: A win against the Falcons on Thursday night would have done a lot for their chances in the NFC South, but its hard to keep winning in the NFL's best division this season. At 9-4 the Saints currently ahead of the Panthers courtesy of their head-to-head tie-breaker. With two games at home upcoming, the Saints can attempt to nail down the division championship. However, the Falcons are still in the drivers seat the with the ability to sweep the Saints with a week 16 victory. In all, the division may very well come down to the very end. If the Falcons end up controlling the south the Saints fare very well in wildcard tie-breakers with head-to-head wins over everyone but the Cowboys. A wrench would be thrown into their plans if the Seahawks win the NFCW and the Rams contend head-to-head with the Rams for a WC spot. Alternatively a bye is still possible for the Saints as well, however a head-to-head loss and 2 game deficit in conference mathchups looms large against the Vikings.

5 (WC1). Carolina Panthers (9-4) [5-4 NFC] {2-2 NFC South}
Key Win/Loss: Saints (swept), Lions (W), Eagles (L), Falcons (W), Vikings (W)
Remaining Schedule: Green Bay, Buccaneers, @Falcons
Summary: The combination of a win at home against the Vikings and Saints loss to the Falcons left everything in play for the Panthers. Within the division being swept by the Saints makes every game that much more important. Moving forward the Panthers need to continue winning but don't control their own destiny. A Falcon win in week 16 changes that and week 17 could become an NFCS division showdown, but its just too early to tell. As mentioned above the Panthers could still secure a first round bye if everything falls correctly (its a longshot). In the wildcard race Carolina is a game up on their competitors. A win at home against Green Bay eliminates the chances of the Packers catching them and puts them in the drivers seat for a wildcard berth. A loss opens things back up with a mediocre conference record and not many head-to-head tie-breakers in hand.

6 (WC2). Atlanta Falcons (8-5) [7-2 NFC] {2-1 NFC South}
Key Win/Loss: Packers (W), Lions (W), Panthers (L), Cowboys (W), Seawhawks (W), Vikings (L), Saints (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Buccaneers, @Saints, Panthers
Summary: All things considered, the Falcons are 8-5 and control their own destiny in the NFCS. They will need to take care of business on the road in week 15, but then have the chance to sweep the Saints. That sweep would put them in the drivers seat for the NFCS crown. As of today they're slotted in the 6th WC spot due to their head-to-head victory over the Seahawks. In the wildcard picture the Falcons will also need to continue winning. As an outsider looking in, you don't want to be tied with the Falcons. They own head-to-head tie-breakers over the Packers, Lions, Cowboys, and Seahawks (all WC contenders). Pair that with a very strong 7-2 NFC record and you'll have a hard time beating them out without passing them in the W/L column.

Continued in next post. 

[Guest]

--Cutoff--

7. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) [6-3 NFC] {4-0 NFC West}
Key Win/Loss: Packers (L), Rams (W), Falcons (L), Eagles (W)
Remaining Schedule: Rams, @Cowboys, Cardinals
Summary: As discussed within the Rams summary, the division is whats most at stake for the Seahawks. Already trailing the Falcons due to a head-to-head loss, the Seahawks best chance at a playoff berth is by winning the NFCW. You can also bet no team is going to want to head out to Seattle as a wildcard team regardless of how healthy they are. In the division a head-to-head sweep puts the Hawks in the drivers seat. A loss gives a commanding lead to the Rams, but a WC berth would still be in play. However, a trip to Dallas with the Cowboys getting back Ezekial Elliott would be a tough match up against a team also competing for a WC berth. The story here is, beat the Rams and control your own destiny or win out and hope for the best.

8. Detroit Lions (7-6) [6-4 NFC] {3-1 NFC North}
Key Win/Loss: Falcons (L), Vikings (split), Panthers (L), Saints (L), Packers (W)
Remaining Schedule: Bears, @Bengals, Packers
Summary: A loss on Thanksgiving derailed the Lions divisional hopes, but they continue to hang around. As discussed above the perfect storm gives them an outsiders chance at the division, but they're really playing for a WC berth. In all reality the Lions will need to win out and get help to find themselves playing in the postseason. To their benefit, their schedule is somewhat easy leading up to a potential showdown with the Packers. At 10-6 the Lions would have a mediocre conference record and head-to-head losses may be their ultimate downfall. Their best chance is any 3 or 4-way tie with the Panther/Falcons/Rams/Seahawks. In those scenarios Detroit ends up in the playoffs with the combination of a common games and conference games tie-breaker.

9. Green Bay Packers (7-6) [5-4 NFC] {2-2 NFC North}
Key Win/Loss: Seahawks (W), Falcons (L), Cowboys (W), Vikings (L), Saints (L), Lions (L),
Remaining Schedule: @Carolina, Vikings, @Lions  
Summary: Although they're currently behind the Lions due to their head-to-head loss earlier this season, the Packers will have a chance to avenge that loss in a week 17 matchup. Similar to the Lions, their is still a glimmer of hope within the NFC North and head-to-head matchup against the Vikings does give them some say in the matter. But in reality the wildcard race has to be the focus for the time being. The return of Aaron Rodgers may also be a boost, but winning in Carolina this upcoming weekend is not a given. Realistically the Packers will need to win-out to have any shot at a wild card berth. Presuming they win out head-to-head wins against the Hawks, Panthers, and Cowboys are helpful but they'd still need help at 10-6 to weasel their way in.

10. Dallas Cowboys (7-6) [6-4 NFC]
Key Win/Loss: Rams (L), Packers (L), Falcons (L), Eagles (L),  
Remaining Schedule: @Raiders, Seahawks, @Eagles
Summary: The Cowboys were eliminated from the NFC East this past weekend and can solely focus on the wildcard race from here on out. Similar to both the Lions and Packers, the Cowboys need to win out to have any real shot at getting a shot in the post season. A week 15 matchup in Oakland is winnable and they would get Ezekial Elliott back in week 16. However, the Cowboys don't have any head-to-head matchup in their back pocket (Seattle is still a possibility). Their best shot is a similar 3-way tie-breaker to Detroit's laid out above where their conference record would grant them a spot. The key difference is that want Carolina to end up with 10 wins to avoid ATL eliminating them head-to-head.

[Guest]

Great work Geoff!

 Let’s win this week at home to seal the North and go from there. 

Skol!

[Guest]

Thanks, Geoff for taking the time to do this.

[Guest]

Thanks Geoff...

We have to hope for some help from the football gods on the injury front the rest of the way. Then just wait to see if they scheme and play well week to week from here on out.

Nerve wracking the rest of the way lol!  That said, it's been a remarkably enjoyable season to-date, hopeful it continues.

[Guest]

Excellent summary Geoff.  Really nice work.  Thanks for taking the time.

[Guest]

Thank you, Geoff I appreciate your effort and especially the details about each team's chances. Carolina needs to stick a fork in the Pack this weekend!!!!