Leber: 'Cousins can win a Superbowl'

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@MaroonBells said:

@medaille said:

@MaroonBells said:

@medaille said:
Whenever you see a stat that says “against winning teams”,
it’s pretty much BS. 

Yes, this. When the best QB in the NFL, 4X MVP and 10X Pro Bowler (Aaron Rodgers) is 36-43 against winning teams, you know it's a bullshit stat. I really wish people would stop using it to support their arguments. 

I pretty much agree with the rest of your post. Everything does work together and you do need a qualitative analysis to truly evaluate your team. But one thing to keep in mind. Our new GM is known for that kind of analysis and you can bet it played a part in not just keeping Cousins, but extending him. It probably also played a part in extending him for just one year. 

To an outsider that would probably sound like you have a QB you're convinced you can win with, but one who's not perfect, one you'd like to see perform in the new offense before committing to him long term. 

Makes perfect sense to me. Really not sure why we keep fighting about it. 

My gut take is similar, that both Cousins and the roster
overall are not that far away from the playoff caliber, but probably not that
close to SB caliber and we’re at the end of the window and it’s a tough
decision to make to blow it all up and cutting expensive veterans without
really knowing what you’ve got by seeing it with their own eyes.  I think that the allure of maybe an offensive
guru can get top 5 performance out of a stacked offensive roster is a pretty strong
one, because Cousins has a lot of good moments and KOC just came from the Rams
where they extracted extra performance out of Stafford, and chances are you
could just as easily do worse than Cousins.


My QB mindset is that you should be ready to draft a QB whenever
they present themselves until you find a good one.  I’d probably keep extending Kirk every year,
while trying to draft his replacement, and tell him that you need a top 5 QB,
and you don’t care if it’s him or the new guy.

I just don't think there's a difference. 

Were the Rams, who beat Bucs by 3, and then the 49ers by 3, who beat the Packers by 3....really that much better than the Bengals, whom they beat by 3, who beat the Chiefs by 3, who beat Buffalo in overtime?

Agreed. And that example bears it out. 

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@Chuckf said:

@minny65 said:

@Chuckf said:

@minny65 said:

@StickyBun said:

@medaille said:
Whenever you see a stat that says “against winning teams”,
it’s pretty much BS.  Like literally
every QB/Coach/Team has horrible stats “against winning teams” outside of the Brady-Belichek
combo who looks average when compared to “winning teams”.  Most wins are a better team beating a worse
team and if you compare a QB who has a long career on teams where the
supporting cast varies in quality to the specific teams who are doing well each
season, you are guaranteed to get a lop-sided outcome.




That said, Offensive and Defensive stats aren’t independent
of each other.  We’ve all seen games
where the offense can’t convert a 3rd down and the defense is on the
field all day and is gassed.  We’ve also
seen games where the offense is holding their own and the defense just
sucks.  We’ve also seen games where the
offense is inept, but a stud defense keeps giving them chances and they
continue to be inept.  We’ve also seen
games where the offense struggled, and a stud defense gave them extra chances
which lead to extra production.


When one side of the ball struggles it often negatively
affects the other side of the ball, but not always.  A good offense will protect the defense and
keep them from having to be on the field as much and a good defense will get
off the field quickly.  You need a more qualitative
analysis to understand what actually happened.

Who's waiting on the 'qualitative analysis' to 'understand what happened' to bag on Cousins then conversely? I keep seeing stats WAY worse than the records against winning teams vs. how many points given up declaring him subpar. 

Let's just get real: fans tend to make emotional, half baked opinions about players and then double down on it when challenged. Wash, rinse and repeat. No minds are getting changed. 

My mind changed last preseason/early season on Cousins.  Up until then I was a firm believer in the he is good enough to win a SB with most of the pieces in place.  Like most in this thread are affirming to each other.  But Cousins showed, once again, a lack of leadership necessary from your QB with the whole Covid situation and then produced just another one of his typical seasons....good stats and average team W/L record.  This hasn't been his M.O. the last few years it is his 10 career.  Cousins is a weird dude and it trickles out into the media from teammates every once in a while.   He does panic when the pocket collapses and seems to run right into danger too much for my liking.  Of course, no QB likes pressure but even the sloth Tom Brady just has a cool demeaner that with one side-step he then makes a good decision about 95% of the time.  Kirk runs right into a sack or tries to do too much and fumbles or throws a pick etc...

I see a lot of similarities between Stafford and Cousins in terms of talent although I think Stafford does have better leadership skills and isn't aloof like I think Cousins is.  Stafford is not great with pocket pressure either but he is better then Cousins at moving around the pocket and avoiding pressure.  Using last year as a one year comparison, I think Cousins could have gotten the loaded Rams team to the SB (maybe not) but I am not convinced Cousins would have beat the Bengals in a close game.  Then you add in Stafford's 2 year deal (33 million CAP hit) vs Cousins 2 year CAP hit of double that. 

Thus I have clearly moved away from thinking Cousins is good enough like a Stafford-type.  Just my long-time Viking fan informed opinion.  I know it is not rah rah.  But being a Viking fan first and foremost I do hope I am wrong about him.  

I wanted us to try and trade and get out from under the KC impending contract hit but Obviously the new regime preferred to extend KC for a year (35 Million) take the CAP hit and avoid a ridiculous dead money hit if we couldn't even get a decent deal in a trade scenario. 

    This is likely to play out after this season like Matt Ryan with the Flacons this offseason:

    "Matt Ryan's 14-year tenure with the Atlanta Falcons came to an end on Monday, with the Falcons taking on $40.525 million of dead cap money, making it the largest dead cap hit in NFL               history. Ryan, a 4-time Pro Bowler, was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2022 third-round draft pick".

Next year we are going to be in a similar situation with Kirk as the Falcons were with Ryan.  Kirk's dead cap hit would be almost 49 million so resetting the record dead cap hit.   Maybe we can get a better deal in a trade scenario then a 3rd rounder.

The hope is that I am "wrong" which is a rarity especially on anonymous blog sites

I just want a definitive answer on KC and QB after this season.  If Kirk proves to be able to lead us into the playoffs and win us a game right now under the new regime circumstances I would be very hopeful for the following year and paying him his $37 million CAP hit for 2023. If KC get us a playoff win that is good enough for me to reignite the hope because I am not as bullish on the whole team talent, new schemes and new coaching as many on here either.  (I would still want us to look very closely at a first round QB in the 2023 draft..HAha, rah, rah) 

The worst scenario for me is if we get the same Kirk with the same "team" game results.  Another season of good individual stats that all add up to mediocracy once again and leaving doubt that if we just fix this or fix that on defense then Kirk is good enough.  

I hope next offseason we are no longer having this debate about Kirk being good enough to win us a SB.  This is the year of the answer to that question.  

You have never been a believer in Cousins.  You have been against the guy since day one Minny.

Not even remotely true.  Was a big fan of the signing and even defended the contract numbers from day 1.  Unfortunately I was wrong about that like you are now

My bad.  I think I might have mistaken you for different poster.  Apologies.  

No biggie but you did force me to "try" and go back into my 2018, 2019, 2020 posts but it would only archive back to late 2020 or maybe it was a feeble attempt   

My gut feeling when we went and got Cousins was similar to when Spelly hired Zimmer.  I was all-in on both at the time.  I jumped off the Zimmer bandwagon over 3 years ago after years of full support.  Cousins, I jumped off last year but up until then I was part of the thinking like most on this thread now who think he is good enough to win us a SB with all the support pieces in place.  

SKOL

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Ah, Hope sells season is upon us...