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To Rebuild or Run it Back
#21
Quote: @"minny65" said:
@"Hawkvike25" said:
@"minny65" said:
@"Hawkvike25" said:
@"minny65" said:
@"MaroonBells" said:
It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.  
While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 
I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  
Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.
I wasn't comparing the players Ryan/KC I was comparing the potential situation of hanging on too long and creating a huge dead cap when you have to pay the piper.  
I get that, I was mentioning comparing the Ryan/Falcons situation to Russ/Seahawks. The rise and fall of the Seahawks was the Legion of Boom. The rise and fall of the Falcons was because of a great coach coming and leaving. 
Smile

I am still talking more about the OP theme and "situational" decisions of hanging on too long vs knowing when to rebuild.  Awareness of your window and timing of moving on from the QB, the Falcons hung on too long and are paying a huge price for that (I'm not looking at why or when Ryan's/Falcons window closed).  The Seahawks got a pretty good return on Wilson while the Falcons took a bath.  Basically, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them.  My fear is that we are holding onto to Kirk (ala Ryan) too long and we are going to pay a heavy price for that next year.  Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong.  

As far as windows - Zimmer was able to create a window that closed 3 + years ago with our version of legion but no QB like Wilson or Ryan.  Unfortunately, by the time we got KC the Defense/Coaching/ST became second tier and the window had been shut. Obviously, the Wilf's think we have enough to contend with new coaching and 3-4 switch.  
Gotcha. If the Wilf's do indeed think we have enough and want to see how a new coaching staff does then put me in the same bin as them. I strongly think coaching, or lack thereof, for the last 2-3 years took some W's and turned them into L's. Do I think we are super bowl contenders? No, but we've all seen crazier stuff happen in the playoffs. I just think it'll be nice to see how the team performs with a new crew...and hopefully not as many injuries.
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#22
Quote: @"Hawkvike25" said:
@"minny65" said:
@"Hawkvike25" said:
@"minny65" said:
@"Hawkvike25" said:
@"minny65" said:
@"MaroonBells" said:
It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.  
While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 
I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  
Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.
I wasn't comparing the players Ryan/KC I was comparing the potential situation of hanging on too long and creating a huge dead cap when you have to pay the piper.  
I get that, I was mentioning comparing the Ryan/Falcons situation to Russ/Seahawks. The rise and fall of the Seahawks was the Legion of Boom. The rise and fall of the Falcons was because of a great coach coming and leaving. 
Smile

I am still talking more about the OP theme and "situational" decisions of hanging on too long vs knowing when to rebuild.  Awareness of your window and timing of moving on from the QB, the Falcons hung on too long and are paying a huge price for that (I'm not looking at why or when Ryan's/Falcons window closed).  The Seahawks got a pretty good return on Wilson while the Falcons took a bath.  Basically, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them.  My fear is that we are holding onto to Kirk (ala Ryan) too long and we are going to pay a heavy price for that next year.  Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong.  

As far as windows - Zimmer was able to create a window that closed 3 + years ago with our version of legion but no QB like Wilson or Ryan.  Unfortunately, by the time we got KC the Defense/Coaching/ST became second tier and the window had been shut. Obviously, the Wilf's think we have enough to contend with new coaching and 3-4 switch.  
Gotcha. If the Wilf's do indeed think we have enough and want to see how a new coaching staff does then put me in the same bin as them. I strongly think coaching, or lack thereof, for the last 2-3 years took some W's and turned them into L's. Do I think we are super bowl contenders? No, but we've all seen crazier stuff happen in the playoffs. I just think it'll be nice to see how the team performs with a new crew...and hopefully not as many injuries.

We were a couple plays from being a playoff team last year.  If the head coach wasn't even talking to the veteran QB then it would have flowed over onto the field.  I'm ready to see what we've got without Zim at the helm. 
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#23
There is a glaring fact forgotten in this comparison - Seattle did not have a choice with Wilson as he was going to force his way out. I’m sure they would have liked to keep him, but they didn’t have a choice in the matter. 
If you’re drafting well and making smart decisions in free agency, you should never have to “blow it up”. In the case of the Vikings, you’re returning a solid team this year that is in desperate need of good coaching. I expect us to be immediately competitive this year. If we are not, I will be concerned with the new staff. If they’ve fixed the defense, this team should be in good shape in my opinion.
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#24
Quote: @"Havoc1649" said:
There is a glaring fact forgotten in this comparison - Seattle did not have a choice with Wilson as he was going to force his way out. I’m sure they would have liked to keep him, but they didn’t have a choice in the matter. 
If you’re drafting well and making smart decisions in free agency, you should never have to “blow it up”. In the case of the Vikings, you’re returning a solid team this year that is in desperate need of good coaching. I expect us to be immediately competitive this year. If we are not, I will be concerned with the new staff. If they’ve fixed the defense, this team should be in good shape in my opinion.
I won't be so concerned with the new staff after one year, but I will double down on shipping out the aging core that has been here the last 8-10 years.
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#25
Quote: @"minny65" said:
@"Caactorvike" said:
@"pattersaur" said:
Funny enough if I were them, I’d have said run it back with Russ, DK, Lockett, and try your best to retool the defense. And if I were us, I’d have leaned towards blow it up. Shows what I know.

I will say I really like how KAM has spent money this offseason— primarily on the Kirk and Z Smith deals— that will allow us to run it back yet again the following year if things go well this season. But if not, we can move on from many pieces after this season or at worst in Kirk’s case, the following year.

For a first-time GM on a 4-year contract, I have to admit what he’s doing is probably the most sensible approach. For a long-suffering fan who covets an elite QB for once, I would have done things differently. I’m very interested and excited to see how the draft goes.

Last thought— I do think if Rick Spielman were still the GM the offseason to date would have gone very, very similar to how it’s gone. Seems like the Wilfs wanted a culture change, not a roster change. Which knowing all that we know now, seems wise. 
“The Wilfs wanted a culture change not a roster change.”  Never heard it put so succinctly. Exactly right. 
Agree. Very succinct. 

Hope I am wrong, but I was hoping for more roster change along with the culture change.  Our roster has a lot of our top talent (mostly D) on the down slope of their career's - IMO.  
Agree as well. The question is whether they solely wanted a culture change or if they wanted a culture change before a roster change. There will be a lot of pressure if they don't perform on the field this season. I would have to imagine it becomes a realistic outcome next off-season if they don't make progress.  
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#26
When players are already making comments to reporters specifically on “great vibes in the building” you know there has already been a change.
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#27
Quote: @"minny65" said:
@"MaroonBells" said:
It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.  
While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 
I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  
It's possible you're right. My only point is that it should be fairly easy to compare strategies as we watch Seattle and Minnesota over the next two or three years. But as someone said, it's not perfect apples to apples. Vikings roster was a good bit better than Seattles. 
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#28
Quote: @"Hawkvike25" said:
When players are already making comments to reporters specifically on “great vibes in the building” you know there has already been a change.
I agree, but I am worried about the lack of accountability in some regards. Coaching staff and FO aside, they were still the guys who lined up and lost the games. 
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#29
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@"Hawkvike25" said:
When players are already making comments to reporters specifically on “great vibes in the building” you know there has already been a change.
I agree, but I am worried about the lack of accountability in some regards. Coaching staff and FO aside, they were still the guys who lined up and lost the games. 
Sure, but a good amount of those issues are gone. Breeland, Griffen, Barr, Dozier, etc. Also, hopefully we arent injury prone again this year.
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