02-04-2021, 04:45 PM
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
I am not doing the statistics either, but I think you are right. Every draft there are a bunch of guys touted as potentially developing and the number who become starters are exceedingly rare. Gannon and Johnson 30 years ago - and neither are HOFers. Someone is bound to say, "Brady in the 6th round" - the rarest of rarities. There have been over 2500 players picked on day 3 in the last 20 years...you don't plan around lightning strikes.@Carl Knowles said:
Gannon definitely fits. But both he and Johnson were taken 30 years ago. Have you counted all the middle round "developmental" QBs the NFL has drafted in the last 15 years or so? None of them ever really develop.@JimmyinSD said:
Rich Gannon was drafted by the Patriots in the 4th round to be a RB. The Vikings wanted to developed him as a QB and it took 5 years before he became a starter for the Vikings. 4x pro-bowl, league MVP, took the Raiders to a the Superbowl.@Hawkvike25 said:
Some do, most are spot starters who have never been given a real chance to compete due to an entrenched starter. its one thing to get to see the field, its another thing to get the amount of reps with the starters to really get comfortable in that role. thats why IMO being able to mentor a rookie QB and ease them into that starter role is better than just throwing them out there and scream swim MOFO swim.@JimmyinSD said:
Quite a few get their chance when the starter goes down. Tyrod Taylor got his chance, as has CJ Beathard, Brett Hundley, Matt Flynn, and Colt McCoy. Some obviously didnt have a chance to take over for the current QB but they had their shot to get noticed for a different option@MaroonBells said:
how many really get the chance? Cousins comes to mind, but most of those mid round guys never really see the field as they are behind somebody drafted higher that the coaches and gms have more professionally invested in succeeding.@greediron said:
Yeah, but when has a "developmental" QB ever really developed? Seems to me there are three kinds: QBs you draft in the 1st to be starters, QBs you get lucky on (Dak, Brady, Wilson), and QBs who are drafted to be backups. I can't think of too many low-experience, high-upside QBs drafted in the mid-to-late rounds that actually developed into starters. Rich Gannon I guess.@minny65 said:
Rick's biggest failure IMO. We have never had a developmental QB worth worrying about. Ponder and some old dude. Teddy and some even older dude. Kirk and a nobody. I get having a veteran mentor for the young QB, but you gotta have something in the well in case they bust like Ponder or get hurt like Teddy. We mortgaged the future because everyone knew Hill was way over his name and wouldn't make it through the season.@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I will put it to rest. The Vikings have absolutely zero interest in trading Kirk Cousins. It doesn't matter if the 49ers want him, he isn't available. I also feel very confident that the 49ers would not offer the 12th pick straight up with Kirk. I agree and said the same above your post. That said I still don't think we should rule out drafting a QB in round 1. My supply/demand theory (ponder reach) vs Favre/Rodgers. I don't think having Cousins/rookie QB is such a bad thing.
I do agree that we can probably do better than Sean Mannion.
Brad Johnson was drafted in the 9th round and needed to spend some time in the world league developing as a QB. It took 4 years before he saw legit starting time for the Vikings. 2x pro bowl, and won a Superbowl for the Bucs. Tony Dungy was a assistant coach with the Vikings in Johnson's early developmental years. Dungy later won a Superbowl with Johnson as his starter in Tampa Bay.
These are just two examples of "developmental" QB that went on to greatness. A development QB can only start out as a backup. It doesn't matter how they get starting experience,... the key elements is that they must be ready to take advantage of the opportunity when they get it. It is harder for some of these guys today because teams are only keeping two QB and the window to show improvement is a matter of games not years.
Yes, I do believe QBs can still be developed. I would love to see the Vikings draft a 3rd to 5th round QB this year as an understudy to Cousins. Why not?
If Brad Johnson or Rich Gannon can take teams to the Big Show... Cousins (or his backup) can do it too.
Thinking of guys like Logan Thomas. Big guy, huge arm, good athlete. Man, if you could ever develop him. He's now playing TE. Jacoby Brissett, Deshone Kizer, Cardale Jones, Brett Hundley.
PIck QBs you think will be good backups and maybe you get lucky, because the "developmental QB" is a myth IMO.
Odds of finding one might rise to "plausible" if you draft someone in round 2-3. That brings guys like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick into the discussion. Even there you get far more guys like Christian Haeckenberg and Sean Mannion. But you're giving up a 2nd or 3rd for a longshot, instead of picking an OL or other player with higher chances of success.
