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I would like to see a comparison to the Pats. It's easy to say that it's a crap shoot. But maybe it isn't!
Interesting read. But in the end, meaningless.
The only relevant numbers in L'il Ricky's 13 year tenure in charge of scouting and personnel? 2 playoff wins in 13 YEARS.
That is the most futile playoff win 13 year stretch in Vikings HISTORY. The Vikings have NEVER gone 13 years with 2 or fewer playoff wins....until Schpielman showed up.
But fans are supposed to blindly trust this WELL DOCUMENTED LOSER to all of a sudden build a TRUE championship contending team in 1 off-season?!! Really? LMFAO!!!
Good on ya, Ricky. . you DID make it into the Vikings record book. Just not in the way you pictured.
Enjoy your super-special-awesome draft board in April. Hopefully it will be your last time at the helm.
Lakeerievike, thanks for sharing as I always find it interesting to review draft tendencies. As this one is from 2015, it's interesting to see which patterns continued in the next 4 drafts. I don't usually grade Spielman on drafts before 2011, as Childress had his fingerprints all over the earlier drafts.
1. "Fearlessly aggressive with offensive skill positions in first two rounds": He did pick Treadwell and Cook, and both were dangerous because of injury (Treadwell) and off-field issues (Cook).
I would say taking risks with players is a true Spielman trait, but not that he emphasizes offense; he's 8-8 between offense and defense for rounds 1-2 since 2011 (6-5 favoring defense in the 1st).
2. "Picked 7 DBs in the first 3 rounds": Oh yeah, big time - 3 more DBs since this article, 2 of which were #1 picks. Interesting to see that Spielman was hot for DBs before Zimmer arrived, as Zim is usually credited/blamed for our preponderance of high picks in the secondary.
3. "selected six OL in R5/R6. Only twice has he taken an OL in the first four rounds": Offensive line drafting is probably the #1 topic on this board for several years... The first half of that observation, picking OL late, has continued. But Spielman has started to creep up and pick OL earlier, first with a couple of 4th-rounders (TJ Clemmings and Willie Beavers), and even a couple of Day 2 guys in Pat Elflein and Brian O'Neill. Will this be the year he uses only his second first-round pick EVER for the OL?? (Survey says: NO!)
Combine #1 and #3: Spielman likes players who can generate stats, and OL don't do that.
4. "Spielman has made 10, 9 and 10 picks": Since this article, he has had 10, 8, 11, and 8. I dug into this last month and proved he collected 55 day 3 picks, most in the NFL, since 2011:
https://vikefans.com/vfforums/discussion/7897/vikings-lead-the-nfl-in-day-3-draft-picks#latest
He loves having lots of low-round draft picks. Worse, he will trade higher picks (especially 3rd round) to collect more. WORST: he is horseshit (sorry, more polite words are inaccurate) at getting talent in those late rounds. Stefon Diggs: OK, throw 55 darts at a wall while drunk and hitting the target 1 time is almost inevitable. I truly think this is a key reason for the Vikings' poor depth behind a handful of big-name starters.
5. "seven R1 picks. Only one of those was made from an original Vikings draft slot": This "trait" seems to have died - we stayed put in the first round ever since 2014. One could argue that's too bad, as we might have been able to trade down and still pick Trae Waynes in 2015, and maybe should have traded up in 2016 to get a better WR than Treadwell. Or down for Michael Thomas..
6. "Spielman is willing to invest a draft pick in a K/P": True - but I wonder if that's over now.
7. "Spielman hasn’t drafted an offensive skill position player later than R4 as GM": No: 4 TEs and 3 WRs in the last 4 drafts. He still doesn't draft RBs late, though. Maybe selecting Toby Gerhart made him believe you should never have more than 1 quality RB on the team.
8. "opted to end drafts with defense": This is generally holding up - 7 of their 9 7th-round picks since 2015 were defenders. If this means anything, I would guess the defensive coaching staff has more say in the draft room than the offensive coaches (who change every year).
9. "Spielman has taken a R7 LB in three straight drafts": Continuing since 2015...part of #8.
10. "Spielman has taken a Day 3 high-risk/high-reward medical flier in each of the last three drafts": This was about Greg Childs, Mike Mauti, and Antone Exum. Late-round guys with medical issues have stopped, but...Spielman doubled down by betting a 1st-round pick on Laquon Treadwell, who has never been able to separate or contribute since his college injury.
I think Spielman is far too confident in players recovering from injury, and I'm confounded by that. Also, many people speak of Sugarman as being some sort of medical miracle worker. What is that based on - the recovery of Adrian Peterson? If so, give Sugarman his due, but Peterson was also a rehab maniac and probably a very unique physical specimen. But Spielman keeps expecting EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Brandon Fusco, Treadwell, and all the draftees listed in this article to be back to 100% by opening day. For every Peterson there are 2 Sharif Floyds.
Everyone is probably long done reading this, but here's another Spielman draft trait:
He has "Denny Greeen+Randy Moss Envy" - he wants to find a "steal" that every other team passed up. This has led him to pounce on some players that were sliding down the draft board, and post-draft press conferences always include how players were bargains that "should" have gone so much higher. Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Laquon Treadwell, and Dalvin Cook all fit that pattern. In the case of at least two of those, the rest of the league was proven right in letting them slide. But that's the basic psychology of gambling - suckers remember big wins and forget big losses, even though the losses are far more common.
The Vikings drafting changed when Zimmer was hired - better defensive players got drafted and the team emphasized defense more. Is that because Rick Spielman got better at these things? No, it's because the head coach has a very prominent voice on draft day. And's that's true of most teams I think. So maybe an article about Mike Zimmer's draft tendencies would be more insightful, or at least accurate. Really it's a team effort - scouts, coaches, management, even ownership in some cases. Do people think we took Hughes in the first last year because Rick loves him some db's? No, that would be the head coach who loves him some db's.
Quote: @"Jor-El" said:
Lakeerievike, thanks for sharing as I always find it interesting to review draft tendencies. As this one is from 2015, it's interesting to see which patterns continued in the next 4 drafts. I don't usually grade Spielman on drafts before 2011, as Childress had his fingerprints all over the earlier drafts.
1. "Fearlessly aggressive with offensive skill positions in first two rounds": He did pick Treadwell and Cook, and both were dangerous because of injury (Treadwell) and off-field issues (Cook).
I would say taking risks with players is a true Spielman trait, but not that he emphasizes offense; he's 8-8 between offense and defense for rounds 1-2 since 2011 (6-5 favoring defense in the 1st).
2. "Picked 7 DBs in the first 3 rounds": Oh yeah, big time - 3 more DBs since this article, 2 of which were #1 picks. Interesting to see that Spielman was hot for DBs before Zimmer arrived, as Zim is usually credited/blamed for our preponderance of high picks in the secondary.
3. "selected six OL in R5/R6. Only twice has he taken an OL in the first four rounds": Offensive line drafting is probably the #1 topic on this board for several years... The first half of that observation, picking OL late, has continued. But Spielman has started to creep up and pick OL earlier, first with a couple of 4th-rounders (TJ Clemmings and Willie Beavers), and even a couple of Day 2 guys in Pat Elflein and Brian O'Neill. Will this be the year he uses only his second first-round pick EVER for the OL?? (Survey says: NO!)
Combine #1 and #3: Spielman likes players who can generate stats, and OL don't do that.
4. "Spielman has made 10, 9 and 10 picks": Since this article, he has had 10, 8, 11, and 8. I dug into this last month and proved he collected 55 day 3 picks, most in the NFL, since 2011:
https://vikefans.com/vfforums/discussion/7897/vikings-lead-the-nfl-in-day-3-draft-picks#latest
He loves having lots of low-round draft picks. Worse, he will trade higher picks (especially 3rd round) to collect more. WORST: he is horseshit (sorry, more polite words are inaccurate) at getting talent in those late rounds. Stefon Diggs: OK, throw 55 darts at a wall while drunk and hitting the target 1 time is almost inevitable. I truly think this is a key reason for the Vikings' poor depth behind a handful of big-name starters.
5. "seven R1 picks. Only one of those was made from an original Vikings draft slot": This "trait" seems to have died - we stayed put in the first round ever since 2014. One could argue that's too bad, as we might have been able to trade down and still pick Trae Waynes in 2015, and maybe should have traded up in 2016 to get a better WR than Treadwell. Or down for Michael Thomas..
6. "Spielman is willing to invest a draft pick in a K/P": True - but I wonder if that's over now.
7. "Spielman hasn’t drafted an offensive skill position player later than R4 as GM": No: 4 TEs and 3 WRs in the last 4 drafts. He still doesn't draft RBs late, though. Maybe selecting Toby Gerhart made him believe you should never have more than 1 quality RB on the team.
8. "opted to end drafts with defense": This is generally holding up - 7 of their 9 7th-round picks since 2015 were defenders. If this means anything, I would guess the defensive coaching staff has more say in the draft room than the offensive coaches (who change every year).
9. "Spielman has taken a R7 LB in three straight drafts": Continuing since 2015...part of #8.
10. "Spielman has taken a Day 3 high-risk/high-reward medical flier in each of the last three drafts": This was about Greg Childs, Mike Mauti, and Antone Exum. Late-round guys with medical issues have stopped, but...Spielman doubled down by betting a 1st-round pick on Laquon Treadwell, who has never been able to separate or contribute since his college injury.
I think Spielman is far too confident in players recovering from injury, and I'm confounded by that. Also, many people speak of Sugarman as being some sort of medical miracle worker. What is that based on - the recovery of Adrian Peterson? If so, give Sugarman his due, but Peterson was also a rehab maniac and probably a very unique physical specimen. But Spielman keeps expecting EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Brandon Fusco, Treadwell, and all the draftees listed in this article to be back to 100% by opening day. For every Peterson there are 2 Sharif Floyds.
Everyone is probably long done reading this, but here's another Spielman draft trait:
He has "Denny Greeen+Randy Moss Envy" - he wants to find a "steal" that every other team passed up. This has led him to pounce on some players that were sliding down the draft board, and post-draft press conferences always include how players were bargains that "should" have gone so much higher. Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Laquon Treadwell, and Dalvin Cook all fit that pattern. In the case of at least two of those, the rest of the league was proven right in letting them slide. But that's the basic psychology of gambling - suckers remember big wins and forget big losses, even though the losses are far more common.
Excellent feed back...I do appreciate the time and effort. I really think this is going to be the last year for Speilman and Zimmer. We'll be one and done or something close. I believe the Wilfs have been steadfast supportive, but change in the NFL is inevitable. I could very well see Stephanski taking the reigns in 2020 with an entirely new front office, perhaps even Kubiak. Too many 'odd' circumstances this offseason. Time will tell obviously, but if this offensive line doesn't get a HUGE influx of talent, this team will only scratch the surface, as every year. Cap money is in play here, if we don't live up to expectations, deep cleaning will ensue.
Quote: @"lakeerievike" said:
@"Jor-El" said:
Lakeerievike, thanks for sharing as I always find it interesting to review draft tendencies. As this one is from 2015, it's interesting to see which patterns continued in the next 4 drafts. I don't usually grade Spielman on drafts before 2011, as Childress had his fingerprints all over the earlier drafts.
1. "Fearlessly aggressive with offensive skill positions in first two rounds": He did pick Treadwell and Cook, and both were dangerous because of injury (Treadwell) and off-field issues (Cook).
I would say taking risks with players is a true Spielman trait, but not that he emphasizes offense; he's 8-8 between offense and defense for rounds 1-2 since 2011 (6-5 favoring defense in the 1st).
2. "Picked 7 DBs in the first 3 rounds": Oh yeah, big time - 3 more DBs since this article, 2 of which were #1 picks. Interesting to see that Spielman was hot for DBs before Zimmer arrived, as Zim is usually credited/blamed for our preponderance of high picks in the secondary.
3. "selected six OL in R5/R6. Only twice has he taken an OL in the first four rounds": Offensive line drafting is probably the #1 topic on this board for several years... The first half of that observation, picking OL late, has continued. But Spielman has started to creep up and pick OL earlier, first with a couple of 4th-rounders (TJ Clemmings and Willie Beavers), and even a couple of Day 2 guys in Pat Elflein and Brian O'Neill. Will this be the year he uses only his second first-round pick EVER for the OL?? (Survey says: NO!)
Combine #1 and #3: Spielman likes players who can generate stats, and OL don't do that.
4. "Spielman has made 10, 9 and 10 picks": Since this article, he has had 10, 8, 11, and 8. I dug into this last month and proved he collected 55 day 3 picks, most in the NFL, since 2011:
https://vikefans.com/vfforums/discussion/7897/vikings-lead-the-nfl-in-day-3-draft-picks#latest
He loves having lots of low-round draft picks. Worse, he will trade higher picks (especially 3rd round) to collect more. WORST: he is horseshit (sorry, more polite words are inaccurate) at getting talent in those late rounds. Stefon Diggs: OK, throw 55 darts at a wall while drunk and hitting the target 1 time is almost inevitable. I truly think this is a key reason for the Vikings' poor depth behind a handful of big-name starters.
5. "seven R1 picks. Only one of those was made from an original Vikings draft slot": This "trait" seems to have died - we stayed put in the first round ever since 2014. One could argue that's too bad, as we might have been able to trade down and still pick Trae Waynes in 2015, and maybe should have traded up in 2016 to get a better WR than Treadwell. Or down for Michael Thomas..
6. "Spielman is willing to invest a draft pick in a K/P": True - but I wonder if that's over now.
7. "Spielman hasn’t drafted an offensive skill position player later than R4 as GM": No: 4 TEs and 3 WRs in the last 4 drafts. He still doesn't draft RBs late, though. Maybe selecting Toby Gerhart made him believe you should never have more than 1 quality RB on the team.
8. "opted to end drafts with defense": This is generally holding up - 7 of their 9 7th-round picks since 2015 were defenders. If this means anything, I would guess the defensive coaching staff has more say in the draft room than the offensive coaches (who change every year).
9. "Spielman has taken a R7 LB in three straight drafts": Continuing since 2015...part of #8.
10. "Spielman has taken a Day 3 high-risk/high-reward medical flier in each of the last three drafts": This was about Greg Childs, Mike Mauti, and Antone Exum. Late-round guys with medical issues have stopped, but...Spielman doubled down by betting a 1st-round pick on Laquon Treadwell, who has never been able to separate or contribute since his college injury.
I think Spielman is far too confident in players recovering from injury, and I'm confounded by that. Also, many people speak of Sugarman as being some sort of medical miracle worker. What is that based on - the recovery of Adrian Peterson? If so, give Sugarman his due, but Peterson was also a rehab maniac and probably a very unique physical specimen. But Spielman keeps expecting EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Brandon Fusco, Treadwell, and all the draftees listed in this article to be back to 100% by opening day. For every Peterson there are 2 Sharif Floyds.
Everyone is probably long done reading this, but here's another Spielman draft trait:
He has "Denny Greeen+Randy Moss Envy" - he wants to find a "steal" that every other team passed up. This has led him to pounce on some players that were sliding down the draft board, and post-draft press conferences always include how players were bargains that "should" have gone so much higher. Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Laquon Treadwell, and Dalvin Cook all fit that pattern. In the case of at least two of those, the rest of the league was proven right in letting them slide. But that's the basic psychology of gambling - suckers remember big wins and forget big losses, even though the losses are far more common.
Excellent feed back...I do appreciate the time and effort. I really think this is going to be the last year for Speilman and Zimmer. We'll be one and done or something close. I believe the Wilfs have been steadfast supportive, but change in the NFL is inevitable. I could very well see Stephanski taking the reigns in 2020 with an entirely new front office, perhaps even Kubiak. Too many 'odd' circumstances this offseason. Time will tell obviously, but if this offensive line doesn't get a HUGE influx of talent, this team will only scratch the surface, as every year. Cap money is in play here, if we don't live up to expectations, deep cleaning will ensue.
This just in, Zim now signed through 2020.
Hopefully there is an out clause in the final year.
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