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Teams are moving the ball and scoring at rates we’ve never seen before. But it’s not just the rule changes or a few elite teams that are behind the shift—a confluence of factors are changing the league as we know it.
So much for the NFL’s crisis on offense. After seeing passing stats drop leaguewide and scoring hit a decade-low in 2017, we’ve watched in awe as offensive numbers have skyrocketed in the first month of this season. With Patrick Mahomes II and Jared Goff leading the charge, the league’s explosion on offense has conjured memories of the ’98 home-run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, when records weren’t just broken but absolutely annihilated.
Of course, steroids and a juiced ball powered baseball’s home-run eruption in the mid-’90s and early 2000s, but in the PED- and deflated-ball-regulated NFL, neither of those are principal factors here. So what’s behind the NFL’s massive jump in offense so far this season?
The NFL, for better or worse, is a quarterback-centric league. And right now, passers are posting historic levels of volume and efficiency: In Week 4, QBs combined for a collective 9,074 passing yards—the first week ever in which passers averaged 300 passing yards per team game—and notched an average 98.2 passer rating. Through four weeks, quarterbacks have completed 2,997 passes for 34,238 yards and 227 touchdowns with a 94.4 passer rating, all highs for the decade. And it’s not just a few teams propping up the rest:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/3/...one-reason
The NFL game is now played like basketball on grass, where spacing and tempo have replaced old-school smashmouth principles. Passers are more efficient than ever because coaches are spreading out receivers, tight ends, and running backs into space—using bunch formations, motion, and mesh-route concepts to confuse coverage. Another mainstay of the college game—the pre- and post-snap jet sweep or orbit motion, is being used more than ever. Last year, teams ran 170 jet-sweep plays (either true handoffs or “touch” passes, which are essentially handoffs) to gain 870 yards, per Sports Info Solutions’ game charting. This year, in just a month of action (and excluding this week’s Monday Night Football), offenses have already run those sweep plays 69 times, gaining 531 yards—on pace for a 144 percent yardage increase year to year—at an average of 7.7 yards per play. That’s a small sample size, of course, but it represents a monumental jump over last year, when teams averaged 5.1 yards on sweep plays.
Football is a zero-sum game, and this season’s offensive explosion has come at the expense of defenses that have, for the most part, struggled to adapt. The season’s long; scoring may wane as defensive coaches adjust to new players and new play-callers; passing efficiency may drop as players get hurt and as the weather gets colder. But that’s no sure thing, and with offenses showing little sign of slowing down, we might be getting closer to talking about how the league’s going to solve its defensive crisis.
When the defense isn't allowed to play defense... what did they expect?
I don't want to watch Arena Football or Indoor Football League style of play. I love, love, love, defense and the last few seasons the NFL has done almost everything they can to make sure the offense has the upper hand. It's bullshit and I tire of watching it. I used to spend my Sundays on the couch watching games.... now I watch the Vikings and don't really care to see anything else. Between the refs blowing obvious calls to the new "sack" rule.... football is looking more and more like WWE. Scripted. Too many wins are being controlled by the refs. Chucky couldn't start the season 0-whatever so the refs screwed the Browns... why not... they're used to it. Rams are hot and it's good for business in LA... Thielen was not down... Thielen pulled on a crucial third down for "check" as the Vikings were on the move. Want to know why I think THAT was Bull. The refs didn't flag him for his objections. He could have easily been flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for his reaction.... but the refs knew it was bullshit to take him out and let him vent without flagging him. IMO.
Quote: @"Bezerker88" said:
When the defense isn't allowed to play defense... what did they expect?
I don't want to watch Arena Football or Indoor Football League style of play. I love, love, love, defense and the last few seasons the NFL has done almost everything they can to make sure the offense has the upper hand. It's bullshit and I tire of watching it. I used to spend my Sundays on the couch watching games.... now I watch the Vikings and don't really care to see anything else. Between the refs blowing obvious calls to the new "sack" rule.... football is looking more and more like WWE. Scripted. Too many wins are being controlled by the refs. Chucky couldn't start the season 0-whatever so the refs screwed the Browns... why not... they're used to it. Rams are hot and it's good for business in LA... Thielen was not down... Thielen pulled on a crucial third down for "check" as the Vikings were on the move. Want to know why I think THAT was Bull. The refs didn't flag him for his objections. He could have easily been flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for his reaction.... but the refs knew it was bullshit to take him out and let him vent without flagging him. IMO.
This is what the league wants. I haven't watched any football since the Vikings game. And it's not just because of the outcome of the game. The game is changing, that's just the way it is.
Quote: @"Bezerker88" said:
When the defense isn't allowed to play defense... what did they expect?
I don't want to watch Arena Football or Indoor Football League style of play. I love, love, love, defense and the last few seasons the NFL has done almost everything they can to make sure the offense has the upper hand. It's bullshit and I tire of watching it. I used to spend my Sundays on the couch watching games.... now I watch the Vikings and don't really care to see anything else. Between the refs blowing obvious calls to the new "sack" rule.... football is looking more and more like WWE. Scripted. Too many wins are being controlled by the refs. Chucky couldn't start the season 0-whatever so the refs screwed the Browns... why not... they're used to it. Rams are hot and it's good for business in LA... Thielen was not down... Thielen pulled on a crucial third down for "check" as the Vikings were on the move. Want to know why I think THAT was Bull. The refs didn't flag him for his objections. He could have easily been flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for his reaction.... but the refs knew it was bullshit to take him out and let him vent without flagging him. IMO.
I'm always up for a good conspiracy theory, but this defense has been getting exposed, outschemed, and outcoached since the end of last season and Zimmer has still not figured out how to stop the bleeding.
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