172 on the ground today...

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@Mike Olson said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
The running game has been a massive reason for the teams success. 

2016 - 2 games over 100 yards
2017 - 7 games over 100 yards (out of 10 games) 

We also have a QB that jas 5 games with a 100+ rating. Rare air in that category.

I'm not trying to throw shade on Case, he's doing a good job and doesn't deserve to be replaced. But there is a lot more that goes into QB play than a weighted average statistic. Passer rating isn't a great stat in general because it is system driven and does little to factor in degree of throw difficulty. Basically, your receivers ability to generate YAC is worth the same as dropping a dime 40 yards down the field. 

Break down Case's passer rating of 100.8 yesterday and it really boils down to him protecting the ball (0 INT's) and his completion percentage of 71%. His overall yardage and TD's are not impressive. The major boon by Theilen late in the game does not hurt either. Case read a 0-blitz well but a majority of the credit is due to Thielen for getting inside leverage on the DB and generating 65 yards of his own after the catch. Factor that one play out and Case's passing rater drops to 87.1, which is slightly above league average. 

Just to throw out the theory that I am looking at things in a vacuum take each opponents average passer rating allowed and generate a +/- for how Case performed. Although not a perfect comparison, over the games he's played that ends up being +7. So you'd expect Case to be posing a passer rating around 7 points greater than league average. That puts him around 88-89, right in line with the adjust stat above.  

So although Case has 4 games with passer ratings of 100+, it is an entire team effort. Case is using his weapons adequately, but the idea that he is carrying them is likely exaggerated. 

The limitations with QB rating that you brought up are exactly why ESPN developed the QBR total quarterback rating, which addresses some of the shortcomings that you've brought up.  And using ESPN's more inclusive rating system, Keenum rises from 13th in the league to 2nd (behind the IR'ed Deshaun Watson).  So I would argue that a ratings system that looks at each and every play and its rate of success is a much better measure of Keenum's play this season, and according to that, Case is playing pretty damn well.

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@Mike Olson said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
The running game has been a massive reason for the teams success. 

2016 - 2 games over 100 yards
2017 - 7 games over 100 yards (out of 10 games) 

We also have a QB that jas 5 games with a 100+ rating. Rare air in that category.

I'm not trying to throw shade on Case, he's doing a good job and doesn't deserve to be replaced. But there is a lot more that goes into QB play than a weighted average statistic. Passer rating isn't a great stat in general because it is system driven and does little to factor in degree of throw difficulty. Basically, your receivers ability to generate YAC is worth the same as dropping a dime 40 yards down the field. 

Break down Case's passer rating of 100.8 yesterday and it really boils down to him protecting the ball (0 INT's) and his completion percentage of 71%. His overall yardage and TD's are not impressive. The major boon by Theilen late in the game does not hurt either. Case read a 0-blitz well but a majority of the credit is due to Thielen for getting inside leverage on the DB and generating 65 yards of his own after the catch. Factor that one play out and Case's passing rater drops to 87.1, which is slightly above league average. 

Just to throw out the theory that I am looking at things in a vacuum take each opponents average passer rating allowed and generate a +/- for how Case performed. Although not a perfect comparison, over the games he's played that ends up being +7. So you'd expect Case to be posing a passer rating around 7 points greater than league average. That puts him around 88-89, right in line with the adjust stat above.  

So although Case has 4 games with passer ratings of 100+, it is an entire team effort. Case is using his weapons adequately, but the idea that he is carrying them is likely exaggerated. 

If you are going to take CK's best play away to bring him down to average.
Would you not have to take the average QB's best plays away to make them below average?


Isn't what you are doing, what Total QBR is for?
Then he is 2nd, not worse as you suggest.