Random Draft Thoughts

[Canthony]

Possibly....but odds are much better you'll be the one surprised.

I think the only way the Vikings even think about a WR high is if Germie Bernard falls to us in the 2nd. I can see them taking a long pause to contemplate drafting him. He would be perfect in this offense. Great fit for the two WRs we have and would complete the trio. Otherwise, I see Hurst at 97 at best for us. 

Bernard is absolutely the real deal. He won't be your X, but he can do just about everything.

[Bullazin]

At 18 we will be staring at a big pile of 2nd round talent. If you could trade down or trade out for 27, this is the year to do it.

A team needs to be whole before the draft, that’s how you can stay true to the process. So, where are the holes?

Glaring:
DT- I dont like anyone at 18. At all. Woods and McDonald have the most upside.

Next highest :
RB- fine until our first snap. Translation: this is our biggest need outside DT.

LB- age is a factor, a pick here in the top 97 is necessary for us.


Picks needed but not really that pressing:

S- metellus, Jackson ward. - should work but any team falls off when a borderline HOF hangs it up.

C- Brandel is fine. I actually like Hecht out of this group although Lew has the most potential.

[MaroonBells]

At 18 we will be staring at a big pile of 2nd round talent.  If you could trade down or trade out for 27,  this is the year to do it.

A team needs to be whole before the draft, that’s how you can stay true to the process. So, where are the holes? 

Glaring:
DT- I dont like anyone at 18. At all. Woods and McDonald have the most upside.

Next highest :
RB- fine until our first snap.  Translation: this is our biggest need outside DT.

LB- age is a factor, a pick here in the top 97 is necessary for us.


Picks needed but not really that pressing:

S- metellus, Jackson ward. - should work but any team falls off when a borderline HOF hangs it up. 

C- Brandel is fine. I actually like Hecht out of this group although Lew has the most potential.

No way I'm trading out for a '27 pick. But I would consider trading down for another day-two pick. Sure, you'll piss off all the haters but that can be fun. I agree with you that the value at DT just isn't there at 18. So if that's our target we really should consider trading down.

[purplefaithful]

This is an older re-post (2015). from a Chief site..Not sure if this has changed much or not?

The percentages by round of finding consistent starters at each position (best to least):

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

QB
The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.

Running Back
There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

Offensive Line
The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.

Tight End
The success rate for tight ends is as follows: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 32%, 6th - 26%, 7th - 0%. In other words, selecting a tight end in the 3rd through 6th doesn't make a lot of difference.
The highest number of tight ends has been selected in the 7th round (31) with the least amount of success (0%)

Wide Receiver
The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
If you are ranking the rounds by numbers drafted, you would go 7th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st and 5th.
The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.

Defensive Line
Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.

Linebacker
If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.
There isn't much drop off in the second round either, with a success rate of 55%.
The third round isn't that bad at 34% but after that the drop is steep with the 4th round plummeting to 16%, the 5th round to 4%, 5% in the 6th and only 2% success in the 7th.

Defensive Backs
You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)
After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)

[Knucklehead]

OT is a premium position & there are teams that are still looking to upgrade there. If there's an OT with a first round grade still on the board at #18, & that's very likely to happen, the Vikings will likely get a very solid offer to trade down.

[supafreak84]

Possibly....but odds are much better you'll be the one surprised.

You have to look at the board and what makes sense under the circumstances. We can all agree that defensive line is a huge need and Peter Woods is probably the only guy out of that top group who really fits what we know of Flores and what his preferences are. You just don't take safety with the 18th pick and I personally believe Smith is coming back. So where does that leave us at #18? You can absolutely make a strong case for taking a receiver;

- Regardless of them picking up the 5th year option on Addison, it doesn't take receiver out of play because of the multiple receiver sets we know OConnell wants to run. It gives you the option to not sign Addison to an extension either because of the money or you just don't trust him.

- Injury insurance

- Nobody has any idea what Tai Felton is at this point, but he didn't see the field last year and based on prior Kwesi drafts, you'd have to think the chances of him developing into a reliable contributer....probably arent good. If he's a bust, there is nobody in the pipeline behind him. This is the major sticking point in my theory is we just don't know how the organization feels about Felton as a prospect moving forward, but if they are ready to shitcan McCarthy after ten games, you'd have to believe they'd have zero problem going in another direction at receiver, which is a hugely important position in the OConnell offense. 

- I think any one of Tyson, Boston or Cooper are significantly better prospects and would upgrade our multi-receiver sets substantially. Remember some guy named Randy Moss and the impact he had in the "3 deep" squad. Turning a strength into a super power would absolutely have to intrigue OConnell going into a "must win" year for him.

I guess we'll find out in a few weeks