Crapshoot

[MaroonBells]

Probably only interesting to draftniks, but PFF just did a redraft of the 2009 draft. To me, redrafts provide a good reminder of just how much of a crapshoot the draft really is. And why rankings that fall outside of conventional wisdom should not be dismissed. To illustrate this, if the 2025 draft follows the 2009 draft, the players taken this year will rank as follows in a redraft down the road. 

1. Cam Ward (1)
2. James Pearce (26)
3. Benjamin Morrison (53)
4. Kenneth Grant (13)
5. Demetrius Wright (49)
6. Hunter Wohler (232)
etc...

Nowhere in the 1st round is any player actually taken between 2 and 8. That is like doing a redraft 16 years from now and Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Will Campbell, Mason Graham, Ashton Jeanty, Armond Membou do not go in the 1st round. While seven 2nd rounders do, as do a handful of day 3 players. Two undrafted players go in the top 12. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2009-nfl-...rades-data

[supafreak84]

It is the ultimate crap shoot. I remember going into that 2009 draft just salivating over the thought of drafting Percy Harvin, then to land him...well that's what you watch the draft for, moments like that. But yes, it is amazing looking back at past drafts and seeing the best players from each draft come from every round and the rankings of pundits are never right.

[purplefaithful]

I'm no draftnik, but I agree Supa..

Its the ultimate crap shoot cause there are so damn many variables at play...We could have a whole thread just listing them all and then another thread ranking them based on how well they correlate with performance.

[MaroonBells]

I'm no draftnik, but I agree Supa..

Its the ultimate crap shoot cause there are so damn many variables at play...We could have a whole thread just listing them all and then another thread ranking them based on how well they correlate with performance.

Doesn't it surprise you though? Just a little bit? NFL teams are billion dollar enterprises that employ dozens of professional scouts, using the latest technology, in-depth film of games and practices, personality testing, intelligence testing, psychological testing, athleticism testing. They dive deep into coaches, former coaches, teammates, family, friends...and still get most of it wrong. 

How does a guy like Wyatt Davis, for example, who played at THE Ohio State University, was Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the Year, and who was a unanimous All American, and whose grandfather is in the hall of fame...how does a guy like that become a total failure in the NFL? I wish I knew.

[purplefaithful]

Doesn't it surprise you though? Just a little bit? NFL teams are billion dollar enterprises that employ dozens of professional scouts, using the latest technology, in-depth film of games and practices, personality testing, intelligence testing, psychological testing, athleticism testing. They dive deep into coaches, former coaches, teammates, family, friends...and still get most of it wrong. 

How does a guy like Wyatt Davis, for example, who played at THE Ohio State University, was Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the Year, and who was a unanimous All American, and whose grandfather is in the hall of fame...how does a guy like that become a total failure in the NFL? I wish I knew.

I get your point, and it does surprise me - just a bit...

Cause we're dealing with humans, not machines.

[JustInTime]

Doesn't it surprise you though? Just a little bit? NFL teams are billion dollar enterprises that employ dozens of professional scouts, using the latest technology, in-depth film of games and practices, personality testing, intelligence testing, psychological testing, athleticism testing. They dive deep into coaches, former coaches, teammates, family, friends...and still get most of it wrong. 

How does a guy like Wyatt Davis, for example, who played at THE Ohio State University, was Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the Year, and who was a unanimous All American, and whose grandfather is in the hall of fame...how does a guy like that become a total failure in the NFL? I wish I knew.

Davis is one of the most perplexing draft failures in recent history. There was first round buzz on the guy. His pedigree was nearly flawless. If you had told me even a year after his selection he wouldn’t catch on anywhere as at least a backup, bottom of the roster type guy I would have taken that bet and put the mortgage on it. Truly an outlier.

[medaille]

While the draft certainly is a crapshoot, I think there’s also a huge issue that happens where shitty teams are shitty for a reason, and players mostly will perform worse for them than other teams or if a player gets sent to a team that has a good position coach at the position they are playing, that’s probably a huge advantage over getting sent to a team that has a huge need because they suck at developing that position.

I also think that in college, guys can get by just by being physically more gifted than other guys, but in the NFL that’s just not enough. You have to be smartish. You have to be a professional. You have to make it your job. You probably aren’t going to make it if you are coasting through film sessions or can’t take criticism. And how much can you figure out who's going to have that hunger after you give them a ton of money.

[purplefaithful]

Davis is one of the most perplexing draft failures in recent history. There was first round buzz on the guy. His pedigree was nearly flawless. If you had told me even a year after his selection he wouldn’t catch on anywhere as at least a backup, bottom of the roster type guy I would have taken that bet and put the mortgage on it. Truly an outlier.

The ONLY thing I can think of is that there were echo's between the ears...The physicality was there. 

And if I'm right? That is something that would have been noted in the vetting process, I THINK.

[greediron]

Davis is one of the most perplexing draft failures in recent history. There was first round buzz on the guy. His pedigree was nearly flawless. If you had told me even a year after his selection he wouldn’t catch on anywhere as at least a backup, bottom of the roster type guy I would have taken that bet and put the mortgage on it. Truly an outlier.

Kalil disease?  NFL bloodlines, pedigree, everything handed to them.  The jump to NFL requires that next level of commitment and some just aren't up to it.

---

While the draft certainly is a crapshoot, I think there’s also a huge issue that happens where shitty teams are shitty for a reason, and players mostly will perform worse for them than other teams or if a player gets sent to a team that has a good position coach at the position they are playing, that’s probably a huge advantage over getting sent to a team that has a huge need because they suck at developing that position.

I also think that in college, guys can get by just by being physically more gifted than other guys, but in the NFL that’s just not enough.  You have to be smartish.  You have to be a professional.  You have to make it your job.  You probably aren’t going to make it if you are coasting through film sessions or can’t take criticism.  And how much can you figure out who's going to have that hunger after you give them a ton of money.

exactly.  Each jump, HS to college, college to pros, demands so much more.  Talent isn't enough.  The mental makeup is what limits so many busts.