Clinching a dance ticket...

[purplefaithful]

At 10-2 after Sunday's win over the Cardinals, the Vikings have all but secured their spot in the NFL postseason. FTN Fantasy's DVOA gives them a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

And they can mathematically clinch a spot this upcoming week. Here's how:

1. Vikings win vs. Falcons
2. Seahawks win at Cardinals
3. Bills win at Rams

Those are the three steps needed for the Vikings to technically clinch in Week 14. The Rams need to lose because they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. The Vikings hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals, but there's still a situation where Arizona wins the NFC West and the Vikings lose the tiebreaker to the Seahawks, who they play in Week 16. That's why the Cardinals also have to lose this week.

More simply, the Vikings just need to win two of their final five games and then none of the other results matter, at least in terms of making the playoffs. They've got the Falcons this week, the Bears the week after that, and they close with the Seahawks (road), Packers, and Lions (road).

The Vikings having ten wins and still being the fifth seed, by virtue of the Lions being 11-1, is an unfortunate reality of the NFL's playoff format that seeds the division winners one through four. Beating Arizona was critical to stay within reach of Detroit, but DVOA still gives the Vikings just an 8.1 percent chance to win the NFC North. The Vikings have a 57.9 percent chance to be the No. 5 seed and a 27.7 percent chance to be the No. 6 seed.

Notably, the Lions host the Packers on Thursday Night Football this week, which means one of them has to lose. A Green Bay win would be huge, as it would boost the Vikings' chances in the division. The consolation of a Detroit win would be that it helps the Vikings hold onto the 5 seed. The Lions then host the 10-2 Bills in Week 15 before finishing with games against the Bears (road), 49ers (road), and Vikings.

This is a big month of December.

Source: SI

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Obviously a lot can change in 5 weeks...But its kinda fun to start the watch now that we're in December

[MaroonBells]

Go...um...Packers?

With some injuries and a game coming up against the Bills (not to mention the Vikings) it would seem the Lions winning the division is maybe not the foregone conclusion it might've seemed a couple weeks ago. They play the 49ers too, but that team just doesn't scare anyone right now.

[MAD GAINZ]

With the Vikings, Lions, and Packers all sandwiched together and having to play each other one more time each... It's gonna come down to those division games.

[Mattyman]

INJURED:
Aidan Hutchinson
Marcus Davenport
John Cominski
Kyle Peko
Alex Anzalone
Derrick Barnes
Jalen Reeves-Maybin
Ifeatu Melifonwu
Carlton Davis

AND NOW:

Mekhi Wingo
Josh Paschal
Levi Onwuzirke
Malcolm Rodriguez

The Lions are gonna start losing games.

[StickierBuns]

Its a very viable weekend for Minnesota to clinch, whether it happens or not is anyone's guess. Minnesota keeps stacking wins and the right teams keep losing to help the cause: that's a great combo.

And for those fans SO concerned about all of these close Vikings wins, some perspective: 
"Of the 388 NFL games this year, 307 have been decided by 8 points or less. So, almost 80 percent of games come down to one score.For comparison, 4 of the 12 Vikings games have been decided by more than one score, so we’re actually above average in terms of winning by more than one score."

Also: Will Ragatz: The Vikings had been 10-2 or better through 12 games just 8 times in 61 seasons from 1961-2021. Then Kevin O'Connell showed up and did it twice in three seasons.

[JimmyinSD]

Average margin of Vikings games is +6.3 pts per game.

9th best at scoring points
5th best at giving up points
Only 2 teams are better at both and thats Philly and Detroit.

At the very least its been a fun season to date that very very few honest people saw happening. I know I didnt.

[JR44]

I think the big question is if this is a 10-2 team that is playing the best it can or can they get better. I think the latter, first of all Darnold has been no fluke, he has shown stretches where he has played as well as anyone, he has all the tools, he has to clean up some of his decision making, I do think he can improve to the point where the level of great play is over longer stretches. TJ is going to become more of a factor and a healthy Oliver will essentially make TJ our 3rd WR, which is an area we have been lacking. We added a lot of new pieces on defense that will continue to improve, I think the big question there is we need to get better overall play on the DL and secondary, hopefully Redmond continues to flash, would like to see McGlothern get some time, as we could really use a spark at DB. While the Lions and Eagles are at their peak, I think we can still take our game to another level.

[purplefaithful]

I think the big question is if this is a 10-2 team that is playing the best it can or can they get better.  I think the latter, first of all Darnold has been no fluke, he has shown stretches where he has played as well as anyone, he has all the tools, he has to clean up some of his decision making, I do think he can improve to the point where the level of great play is over longer stretches.  TJ is going to become more of a factor and a healthy Oliver will essentially make TJ our 3rd WR, which is an area we have been lacking.  We added a lot of new pieces on defense that will continue to improve, I think the big question there is we need to get better overall play on the DL and secondary, hopefully Redmond continues to flash, would like to see McGlothern get some time, as we could really use a spark at DB.  While the Lions and Eagles are at their peak, I think we can still take our game to another level.

Not predicting an NFC CG appearance, but I do think they have have upside in play. Especially running the football and TJH is rounding into shape too. 

Key (as always) is avoiding the "you know what" bug.

[StickierBuns]

Can't win them all and Minnesota won't: but they've stacked enough W's to give them some serious wiggle room. Remember, the other teams far behind the Vikings for playoffs spots need to keep winning as well, which is against the odds. Nothing finished yet, but its a hell of a good place to be for Minnesota currently. The playoffs are the playoffs, unpredictable.