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EAGAN, Minn. --
It's not unthinkable to project the Vikings moving on from him this spring, or at least proposing a significant pay cut -- even after he demonstrated new levels of durability this season.
Cook will turn 28 in August, a past-prime age for running backs, and crossed the 1,500 mark for career touches last season. Most notably, he is due $11 million in 2023, the third-most cash on the books for a running back, and is set to count $14.1 million against the Vikings' salary cap.
Asked about Cook and a number of other veterans whose age and contracts make them vulnerable, Adofo-Mensah said: "It's this complex equation we're always trying to solve." He said the team knows that Cook and others "are great football players, great people [and] core foundational elements of our culture." But after making clear that quarterback Kirk Cousins would return as a 2023 starter, he made no such commitment to Cook and the others.
"At the end of the day, we're trying to meet a talent threshold," Adofo-Mensah said, "a way of playing, a vision for this team that's a championship standard. How we get there will look different year in and year out, but we'll consider all those things as we go forward."
Cook rushed for 1,173 yards in 2022, sixth-most in the NFL, and was named to his fourth Pro Bowl as an injury replacement. But keeping an aging running back under a high-end contract wouldn't seem to match Adofo-Mensah's "competitive rebuild," an approach designed to overhaul the roster while keeping the team in annual playoff contention.
The Cook conundrum is more complicated than it seems, however, and moving on from him would be more difficult than it sounds.
https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/32202/vikings-decision-on-dalvin-cook-is-more-complicated-than-it-seems
To move on completely from Cook, the Vikings would have several imperfect options. Would they re-sign Mattison, a younger but less effective version of Cook? Would they seek out a different low-cost veteran free agent to pair with Chandler and/or Nwangwu? Smart NFL thinking nudges teams toward targeting running backs in the draft, but the Vikings are more limited than most, with only four 2023 draft picks in their possession and perhaps one more coming via the compensatory system.
It's also important to understand what we learned about O'Connell's offensive philosophy in 2022, and what it means for the running game. The Vikings averaged 42.9 dropbacks per game, the most for a Minnesota team since at least 2000, and their average of 23.7 rushes per game was the third-lowest over the same span.
That ratio was due in part to the number of close games and fourth-quarter deficits the Vikings faced, but it also reflected a recognition that their strength was the connection of Cousins and All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson. Cook ran a career-high 367 receiving routes, 43% more than in any other season.
Overall, however, he finished with an average of 17.8 touches and 86 yards from scrimmage per game -- both the lowest since he became a full-time player in 2019.That leaves Adofo-Mensah to analyze how much to value a running back in O'Connell's scheme. It's worth noting that the Los Angeles Rams, for whom O'Connell worked two seasons before the Vikings hired him, devoted 2.9% of their salary cap to the position in 2020, 4.7% in 2021 and a league-low 1.56% in 2022. With Cook on their books this season, the Vikings used 10.2%, second-highest in the league.
Just as complicated are future projections of Cook's health, availability and explosiveness.
"That's always been my goal, just to finish with these guys," Cook said. "A lot of games that I didn't finish a few years ago. It was just on your conscience that I could've helped these guys win a game, I could've been out there, helped us win a game. Being available all year for these guys, that means a lot to me."
Projecting Cook's effectiveness is also a complicated task. On the one hand, he knocked off two of the six longest runs of his career in 2022: a 53-yard score in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins and an 81-yard touchdown in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills. On the latter, he recorded a top speed of 21.68 mph, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the seventh-fastest speed recorded for any ball carrier in 2022.
On the other hand, Cook led the NFL with 62 rushes of zero or negative yards, nearly a quarter of his total carries. It will be up to Adofo-Mensah to determine if that was because he was slower to hit the hole, if his explosiveness has faded, or if the Vikings' offensive line and scheme were largely to blame.
Anecdotally, he faced numerous instances of backfield penetration, and first contact with a defender came after 2.8 yards on average -- the lowest mark of his career.
In 2022, only three running backs rushed for more than 500 yards after they turned 28: the Denver Broncos' Latavius Murray (33), the Dolphins' Raheem Mostert (30) and the Tennessee Titans' Derrick Henry (29).
Cook's career in Minnesota is likely close to its ending, but it's an open question whether it will come before next season.
I don't think the Vikings can let him count $14M against the cap next season. So he either accepts a pay cut or he gets traded/released. So the questions are: how much of a pay cut do they offer? (does it depend on what the vet RB market looks like in FA?); and is any other team willing to take his contract in a trade? (maybe for a lower draft pick in return?). If he says no to the offer and nobody will take his contract, then it is an easy decision - he gets released. It's harsh. I like Cook. But it's the NFL.
They can't afford him at that contract. If they move on, they move on. Tough decisions ahead no doubt.
At some point a player costs more than his promise. I think Cook is now at that point. I think he's got 2 or 3 more good years in him, but it will be on a team with more cap space.
I think a lot of the decision will end up resting on Cook's shoulders. Vikings have enough of a need I tend to think they'll want to get creative with his contract through hidden incentives, a pay-cut, and guaranteeing some money. Going on age 28 will Cook want to do that or go elsewhere and get more of a multi-year guarantee even if its for less money? Depending on how the FA RB market shakes out it could be risky for him to go the UFA route. Mainly because Barkley, Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders and Pollard are all going to be prioritized. For that reason I tend to think they work something out and he returns and this conversation comes up again a year from now.
Reasons the Vikings should keep their star running back:
1. He played in all 17 games last season after never before playing in more than 14. Maybe he has learned how to protect himself. Maybe the Vikings limiting his usage kept him healthier.
2. Cook balances the offense. Kevin O'Connell needs a way to keep defenses honest as they key on receiver Justin Jefferson. Throwing to secondary receivers is one way; feeding Cook is another.
3. Cook is part of the leadership group. He's popular with his teammates because of his work ethic and attitude.
4. Cook made a handful of game-altering plays last season, including his long touchdown runs against Miami and Buffalo, his winning catch against Washington and his long touchdown on a screen pass against Indianapolis.
Reasons for the Vikings to release Cook:
1. Doing so would save them about $8 million against the salary cap. Cutting or trading Cook, Jordan Hicks and C.J. Ham would save about $16 million, and restructuring other deals (Adam Thielen is one possibility) could save tens of millions more, enabling the Vikings to operate in free agency.
2. Cook's per-play production is no longer exceptional and he may be in decline. He has had one All-Pro caliber season, in 2020, when he rushed for 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns. His average yards per carry has declined from 5.0 to 4.7 to a career-worst 4.4 this past season.
3. He was outperformed by Miles Sanders this season, and no one considers Sanders to be a great player.
4. Most modern NFL teams don't think investing heavily in a star running back is the best way to build a championship roster. Kevin O'Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips came from the Rams, who won it all with a series of random players at the position last year. The Chiefs and Eagles both got great production out of the position without employing a star, and the last time a team won a Super Bowl while relying on a star back was Seattle, with Marshawn Lynch, in the 2013 season.
The four reasons against keeping Cook are more persuasive than the four reasons for keeping him.
Alexander Mattison has not thrived statistically in the past two seasons, but he is a strong short-yardage runner who could lead a committee of backs that would include Kene Nwangwu and Tyler Chandler.
Solid running backs can usually be found on the free-agent market at low prices, and in the latter rounds of the draft.
Last year, the league's top three rushers — Las Vegas' Josh Jacobs, Tennessee's Derrick Henry and Cleveland's Nick Chubb — missed the playoffs.
The Vikings will have to make similarly difficult decisions regarding receiver Thielen, linebacker Eric Kendricks, safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Patrick Peterson.
The Vikings need more speed on defense and an upgrade to the middle of their offensive line much more than they need a star running back.
It's hard to see how Cook returns, unless he's open to taking a massive pay cut.
That's one hard cut he may not be willing to make.
https://www.startribune.com/argument-for-against-minnesota-vikings-keeping-dalvin-cook-jim-souhan/600248735/
I've seen enough. I would have loved for him to be healthy in 2017, that would have taken that team to another level (no disrespect to Latvaius and Jet).
But it's time for fresh legs who are trying to prove themselves. Kene should be on the field more and Chandler showed short area quickness, nice movement, and speed last preseason.
Love Alexander as well but do not want him back unless it's $3M/year.
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