Quote: @"Waterboy" said:
@"Skodin" said:
@"Waterboy" said:
@"Skodin" said:
@"Waterboy" said:
@"Skodin" said:
you are a delusional if you think Ron has a chance at beating Don. Trump has a vice grip on the party and the GOP has been leaning more and more into his hands for the last 6 years. They cannot unwind it unless completely fracturing the party. With this antiquated Electoral System, winning is about slim margins. How do you win a national when your party is split?
here are the facts:
Trump’s not quitting
and if by some miracle by Ron, that gets the nom, Trump runs as an independent
Trump is not giving up this cash cow nor spotlight (means more to him than anything) and on election day his people are voting for him regardless of party affiliation by his name
Biden gets 70 million votes
Ron gets 50 million
Don gets 20 million
truly pathetic considering how bad liberals are at elections and candidates
Liberals are great at rigging elections via colluding with the media, harvesting votes, and putting the right people in place supposedly counting the votes. They’ve really learned how to expand and properly rig the vote for all situations within the swing districts. Makes up for the corrupt, inept, and figurehead leaders they put forward.
ok . . . great strategy response
while that might be true (and equal for both parties, ever heard of gerrymandering) it says nothing about the problem the GOP has coming with Trump and Ron
unless you think that the former democrat turned republican Trump is a deep state loyalist
If you think Desantis is a flawed candidate, you're just wrong. I don't know how this all ends with Trump. I think he'd be a great next president. I think Desantis would as well. I think Desantis has a chance based on a lot of different factors that could come into play. Certainly, the scenario you bring about is a concern. Gerrymandering has happened both ways and it is hardly an offset for the rampant voter fraud going on in the liberal swing areas. Trump's election was stolen by the totality of the collusion and fraud, and it was even more egregiously stolen in place like AZ and NV in the Senate and Gubernatorial races in 2022. Make no mistake, the liberals have their eyes focused on a permanent election strategy with the influx of illegals. All of it for the worse of our country.... It's obvious, but people don't want to see it.
there are no perfect candidates. Period. So yes, DeSantis is flawed but how does he beat Trump? And if he does beat Trump, what makes you think Trump will back him and bow out of the race?
This is the scenario. The only way you avoid this, Trump is thrown in prison or dies. If neither happens, it's a car crash waiting to happen.
Unlike the general election, the primaries are not likely to be swayed by voter fraud. Trump will be much more likely to accept that outcome. Trump will not form a third party run as it's a known loser. If Trump can't win the Republican primary, he sits on the sideline, I think. You pointed out a couple of factors that could sideline Trump, also a crash of donor support and general public support would do it as well. I don't know how to predict what that is, but history tells us the Republican front-runner in the beginning often isn't the front-runner at the end, so we shall see.
Trump has a 30% lead on the party right now. He is going to run regardless of money because he has 20% of the GOP vote as loyalists. He's going to use that all the way to the end because he's a grifter and the grift has to grift. I mean he OPTED everyone IN to draw on consistent donations even if you were planning on a one time donation. His "legal defense fund" was funding his Super PAC unless you read the fine print.
He's in it for the money because he stated, he is the "King of Debt". Well he's got a lot of debt out there and needs to keep the cash cow full. The man wanted to start his own Twitter after he was banned from Twitter. He's not going to lose the nomination and if by some small likelihood he does, he's not bowing out. Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 92, that man was no Donald Trump. He's going to compare himself to Teddy Roosevelt
You have a in debt grifter who holds grudges. A guy who said he wouldn't back the nominee in 2016 if it wasn't him.
You are hoping for Trump stepping in line, but that's not going to happen
“Exactly — you lose forever without me. I don’t care. This is what Republicans deserve for not sticking up for me”. Good luck
Quote: @"Skodin" said:
@"badgervike" said:
@"Skodin" said:
@"badgervike" said:
@"Skodin" said:
there are no perfect candidates. Period. So yes, DeSantis is flawed but how does he beat Trump? And if he does beat Trump, what makes you think Trump will back him and bow out of the race?
This is the scenario. The only way you avoid this, Trump is thrown in prison or dies. If neither happens, it's a car crash waiting to happen.
I think it all comes down to momentum between Trump and DeSantis. If DeSantis wins a couple of early primaries, I would expect the endorsements and $$ to follow. There's a lot of people in the GOP that softly support Trump but are secretly waiting for the opportunity to jump to a more electable candidate. If DeSantis is the likely GOP candidate, I would also potentially expect leaks and possible indictment of Biden ...so the Dems can run someone whose strategy isn't to hide from his opposition. Biden may be able to justify not debating and directly engaging with Trump...but he can't justify not facing DeSantis.
An indictment of Biden??? On what? Talk about giving red meat to the extremist.
I don't think Biden is going to be running from Trump or DeSantis, who is stating he is not going to debate them?
I don't think there's any doubt the Biden family fortunes have been enhanced by selling access. The question is whether the press or FBI does anything about it. If Biden is unelectable, expect the worm to turn and Biden gets taken out by friendly fire.
Biden hasn't come out and said he won't debate Trump but listen to those around him. They're questioning why they should subject Biden to Trump's lies, etc. during a debate. I would expect that drum beat to get stronger as we get closer to the election. Do you honestly think Biden's team wants him to debate?
Biden family, like the Bush family using their influence for personal gain. That's access and influence is only exclusive to POWER not party.
Yes, he's already beat him once. Do you think if Trump wins the nomination (after further ostracizing old school GOP nominees) he will be able to pull more than what he got in 2020 when he was the President? Even his former handpicked teammates says he wins the nom but loses the general election.
I do believe the Biden team is making a huge mistake by not replacing Harris. I thought she was a terrible choice, I liked Val Demmings, former Chief of Police in Orlando (if you were going to go black woman). By keeping Harris around, that's not quite inspiring especially if Joe wins and potentially kicks the bucket. Andy Beshear, Amy Klobuchar, much better options than Harris as VP but I like said, Democrats are terrible at picking quality candidates & running campaigns
I think you skipped over the biggest grifters of the bunch...the Clintons and their foundation which didn't actually use the money for charity. Funny how the donations dried up after Hillary was defeated.
Bush entered office worth $20M and is now worth $40M
Obama entered office worth $1.3M and is now worth $70M
Clinton entered office worth $1.3M and is now worth $242M
https://blog.cheapism.com/what-presidents-are-worth/
I think DeSantis will be the GOP nominee. His supporters are tiring of the circus that comes with him...and that will only accelerate with the questionable jabs at DeSantis (Charlie Christ was a better Governor) which frankly just sound petty. If Trump turns on the party, he'll get the Cheney treatment by the party faithful and will be rendered irrelevant by both parties.
Polls are but a snap-shot in time.
That said, I believe Skodin is correct in that Trump will be the GOP nominee.
538 (Nate Silver, et al), spectacularly WRONG in the 2016 prexy election....pretty much nailed the 2020 election.
Latest 538 polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Trump leads DeSantis 59% - 34%.
Trump beats Biden, by 1% (here we go again)
So if "today's snap-shot" is accurate, Trumpers should be buoyed.
With everything since election night 2020, (losing close election, 1/6 MSM media beating, lawsuits) Trump is in remarkably good shape.
Also, with the further cognitive decline/gaffes coming from Biden, that will only benefit Trump.
I was (originally, 2016), not a Trump guy.
When Trump stormed the South on Super Tuesday, and beat Cruz (my guy)...I became a believer.
Trump's surprising win & first two years as America's most conservative President (Heritage Foundation), solidified my belief. https://www.heritage.org/impact/heritage-analysis-trump-administrations-first-year-draws-high-profile-attention
Trump's second half of his Presidency, languished.
Mostly due to Covid/Fauci/lockdowns...but also a shift away from "the Wall"/immigration.
Ultimately, that shift away & Democrat covid-election out-maneuvering, won the 2020 election-day. (I'm not saying the election was stolen).
Once legislatures declare winners (national/state)....courts are LOATHE to interject/overturn.
So...if we can believe 538, we're in for another razor-tight.
Trump could make inroads over 2020, with a minority pick for VP. (Tim Scott/Nikki Haley....but we already own South Carolina. Will a black from a swing-state be picked?
My pick for Trump, John James, Mich.)
But, imo...that won't make up nearly the difference in Dem votes illegally streaming over the border, changing the electorate, forever.
(Yeah, illegal/latinos are increasingly somewhat conservative "family values"...but they're overwhelmingly traditionally Dem voters)
Trump is a (one-off?) candidate for the GOP. DeSantis, is not. (Plenty of white southern men)
One-off, means a GOP white candidate (Trump) that (somehow) connects with poor white/black/latino in record (if not majorit) numbers, that most GOP'ers, do not connect with.
Ultimately, I stand by my earlier prediction, that the GOP doesn't ever win a Prexy election, forever. Demographics.
Trump might be the last to do it again (2024), but I doubt it, despite 538's current prediction.
GOP will win many local/state elections, but will never hold majorities nationally.
The "division", will only get worse.
Wait, people are still supporting two treasonous clubs that have us over $30 trillion in debt, get us into constant global conflicts without solid exit strategies, misplace billions, even trillions of our dollars with no accountability, and use their pet media outlets to have Americans hating each other more viciously than Iran, Russia, North Korea, and all the terrorist nations combined could ever have hoped?
What is it that makes 140ish million Americans keep limiting their choices between trash heaps?!?!?!
I would argue the changing demographics in America are not being fueled by illegal immigrants.
Rather its a continuation of a decades long acceleration in brown/black communities who have called here home for at least 2 generations.
Its just a matter of time till Caucasians are the new minority.
Quote: @"purplefaithful" said:
I would argue the changing demographics in America are not being fueled by illegal immigrants.
Rather its a continuation of a decades long acceleration in brown/black communities who have called here home for at least 2 generations.
Its just a matter of time till Caucasians are the new minority.
I was talking with a Latino co-worker a couple of years back. His skin tone is basically "intermediate"...and I mentioned an article stating that he was basically where some predicted human "color" trends to be heading 50-100 years from now. He was surprised when I told him "dude, you're the goal".
I'm all for this. I'm pretty thoroughly a "saltine American", but my son and my ex are both part Native, and I think it'll be AMAZING if the human race all gets closer in pigmentation, and have one less thing to get in petty fights over.
Quote: @"purplefaithful" said:
We've been having some sidebars on him for a while now.
Might be worthy of his own thread these days
Top of mind for me
I was hopeful for him as a Trump alternative, not sure anymore.
I think he is poking govt/religious dogma into areas it shouldn't be going
He is losing this war with Disney:
- It looks bad from an out of state lens
- Makes him an easy target for other candidates
- $1b expansion just pulled from the sunshine state (at least for now)
His ultraconservative stance on key issues will not appeal broadly, especially outside of FL and especially RoevWade
I am not convinced he can take whats made him popular in FL and evolve it to a legitimate nationwide candidate
Not a strong start imo...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/disney-florida-spending-desantis-fight.html
Disney still has plans to spend billions in Florida despite its battle with DeSantis
Quote: @"savannahskol" said:
@"purplefaithful" said:
We've been having some sidebars on him for a while now.
Might be worthy of his own thread these days
Top of mind for me
I was hopeful for him as a Trump alternative, not sure anymore.
I think he is poking govt/religious dogma into areas it shouldn't be going
He is losing this war with Disney:
- It looks bad from an out of state lens
- Makes him an easy target for other candidates
- $1b expansion just pulled from the sunshine state (at least for now)
His ultraconservative stance on key issues will not appeal broadly, especially outside of FL and especially RoevWade
I am not convinced he can take whats made him popular in FL and evolve it to a legitimate nationwide candidate
Not a strong start imo...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/disney-florida-spending-desantis-fight.html
Disney still has plans to spend billions in Florida despite its battle with DeSantis
The 2020 Disney move announcement went over like a lead balloon with its employees and was predicated on $570 million in tax breaks from Florida. This recent announcement was just a little posturing by Disney for the willing MSM. Here's an article prior to the battle with DeSantis which indicated most had already assumed the move was dead. Disney's largest business is in not their Theme Parks so the move never really made much sense except to escape the high costs in California. Disney was in real danger of losing many key personnel and the associated brain drain with the move.
https://insidethemagic.net/2022/12/disne...elled-ld1/
This announcement is just a way of putting pressure on DeSantis by Disney and Iger. Ultimately, Disney is beholden to its shareholders to make the best financial decisions for the Company. As Sav posted above, they're still making $17B in investments in Florida because it makes business sense....they just don't make any public proclamations regarding that investment.
Quote: @"savannahskol" said:
Polls are but a snap-shot in time.
That said, I believe Skodin is correct in that Trump will be the GOP nominee.
538 (Nate Silver, et al), spectacularly WRONG in the 2016 prexy election....pretty much nailed the 2020 election.
Latest 538 polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Trump leads DeSantis 59% - 34%.
Trump beats Biden, by 1% (here we go again)
So if "today's snap-shot" is accurate, Trumpers should be buoyed.
With everything since election night 2020, (losing close election, 1/6 MSM media beating, lawsuits) Trump is in remarkably good shape.
Also, with the further cognitive decline/gaffes coming from Biden, that will only benefit Trump.
I was (originally, 2016), not a Trump guy.
When Trump stormed the South on Super Tuesday, and beat Cruz (my guy)...I became a believer.
Trump's surprising win & first two years as America's most conservative President (Heritage Foundation), solidified my belief. https://www.heritage.org/impact/heritage-analysis-trump-administrations-first-year-draws-high-profile-attention
Trump's second half of his Presidency, languished.
Mostly due to Covid/Fauci/lockdowns...but also a shift away from "the Wall"/immigration.
Ultimately, that shift away & Democrat covid-election out-maneuvering, won the 2020 election-day. (I'm not saying the election was stolen).
Once legislatures declare winners (national/state)....courts are LOATHE to interject/overturn.
So...if we can believe 538, we're in for another razor-tight.
Trump could make inroads over 2020, with a minority pick for VP. (Tim Scott/Nikki Haley....but we already own South Carolina. Will a black from a swing-state be picked?
My pick for Trump, John James, Mich.)
But, imo...that won't make up nearly the difference in Dem votes illegally streaming over the border, changing the electorate, forever.
(Yeah, illegal/latinos are increasingly somewhat conservative "family values"...but they're overwhelmingly traditionally Dem voters)
Trump is a (one-off?) candidate for the GOP. DeSantis, is not. (Plenty of white southern men)
One-off, means a GOP white candidate (Trump) that (somehow) connects with poor white/black/latino in record (if not majorit) numbers, that most GOP'ers, do not connect with.
Ultimately, I stand by my earlier prediction, that the GOP doesn't ever win a Prexy election, forever. Demographics.
Trump might be the last to do it again (2024), but I doubt it, despite 538's current prediction.
GOP will win many local/state elections, but will never hold majorities nationally.
The "division", will only get worse.
I find it amusing that many liberals now openly admit massive voter fraud, but try to legitimize it. Yet, Trump and Jan 6ers should be thrown in jail for dare questioning things. People are witnessing a coup in broad daylight, and many are rooting it on.
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