Loaded Vikings-Colts preview with @JonKrawczynski…

• What we’re watching
• Biggest concerns
• Most interesting storyline
• Advanced stat breakdown
• Predictionshttps://t.co/qaq10sEU6O

— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) October 24, 2026

Will Kyler Murray build momentum in Minnesota’s offense?: Vikings-Colts predictions

The NFL trade deadline won’t arrive for a couple of weeks, but the Vikings feel like they’re already getting somewhat of a boost.

Several of their injured starters — running back Jordan Mason, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, tight end T.J. Hockenson and receiver Jordan Addison — have all returned to practice this week. This bill of health, paired with quarterback Kyler Murray’s ascent in the Vikings’ offense, makes Minnesota dangerous.

Very little about this weekend’s matchup with the Indianapolis Colts jeopardizes that thought. What should you expect Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Mason. I’ve long thought that he remains underrated as a runner. He may not have home run-hitting ability, but the vision shows up in cutbacks that often don’t feel like they exist until he makes them. Mason injured his thumb in the season opener against Green Bay and hasn’t played since. Still, he owns the team’s longest rush of the season — a critical 28-yarder in Week 1. The advanced statistics validate some of his specialness. Last year, only Steelers running back Jaylen Warren forced missed tackles at a higher rate, according to Next Gen Stats. Mason consistently earned more yardage than it looked like would have existed. Adding him back to this offense, which is running the ball at one of the highest clips in the NFL, should make everything feel easier against a Colts defense allowing a seismic 4.7 yards per carry.

Krawczynski: Kyler Murray. He really seems to be settling into this offense, which I think comes from two sources. First, he just has more comfort with everything around him. He is making quicker reads, finding the options and being decisive. All good things. Second, Kevin O’Connell clearly is making some adjustments to the system to accommodate Murray’s unique skill set. More shotgun is the most noticeable tweak. That’s just good coaching. Don’t try to force the player into the system. Mold the system to the player. Having the bye week for them to compare notes and, presumably, come up with even more compromises should only strengthen the partnership. And playing against a weakened Colts defense won’t hurt, either. 

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Complacency. Don’t take this the wrong way: The Vikings haven’t fallen victim to overconfidence yet. They seem almost hypnotized by the week-to-week cliches. This was simply one of the few advantages that the Colts have, especially after watching last week’s tape in their loss to the measly Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis is susceptible at right tackle with second-year pro Jalen Travis. The Colts’ defense has problems at linebacker with Akeem Davis-Gaither and Bryce Boettcher. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones can be bothered by pressure, and the Vikings know his tendencies from the exposure to him in 2024. All of this is to say that the scale swings aggressively toward the Vikings this weekend. Avoid turnovers, and they should be in good shape.

Krawczynski: Air yards for other receivers. If this offense is really going to become something dangerous, it has to find a way to get Addison and a third receiver, whether it’s Jauan Jennings or someone else, to become a factor. Justin Jefferson should be pretty much fully healthy after the week off. Hockenson will be there for a Murray safety blanket, but they need more variance. Addison’s five catches for 90 yards and a score against Tampa Bay a few weeks back were a good start, but they need a lot more.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Vikings’ pressure packages vs. Colts’ interior offensive line. Who is going to be the opponent to stop linebackers Eric Wilson and Blake Cashman from running free through the A-gap? Nobody has kept them from ruining the game to this point. Perhaps Indianapolis’ interior trio — left guard Quenton Nelson, center Tanner Bortolini, and right guard Matt Goncalves — has what it takes. This is a good group. They can move and anchor. They also do a solid job passing off stunts. Still, one question remains: Who will Colts head coach Shane Steichen use as a pass protector in the backfield? Running back Jonathan Taylor does an admirable job, but Indianapolis probably doesn’t want him taking 10-plus hits against blitzers.

Krawczynski: Jones vs. Murray. Yes, I know they technically aren’t going eye-to-eye. But this is a super intriguing what-if game. The Vikings really wanted Jones to stick around last season as insurance for JJ McCarthy. But he looked at the setup and figured his better chance to be a full-time starter was in Indianapolis. Turned out to be a great move. Even though the Colts haven’t been great and he suffered an Achilles injury last season, he still showed enough to get a big payday and become the unquestioned starter in Indy. Jones’ decision also paved the way for Murray’s arrival in Minnesota, in a roundabout way. A fun little twist of fate that will be on display Sunday.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: I write this half-jokingly: Can the Vikings punish the Colts badly enough to be willing to leave Nelson or Taylor in Minnesota? The Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard this week. The move signaled a plan to reshape Indianapolis’ roster ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline. It’s not far-fetched to think that guard and running back are the Vikings’ two biggest needs. Few fit better than those two. Both players would require steep costs. A world in which the Vikings run behind left tackle Darrisaw and Nelson is intriguing. Meanwhile, Taylor’s ability to transform how defenses would try to defend the Vikings is too enticing not to consider. The Vikings are going to be active. It’s going to be difficult not to watch Sunday’s game through any other prism than how much these two could help the purple.

Krawczynski: Somewhat related, the Colts offer a cautionary tale for being too aggressive too soon on the trade front. They got off to a good start last season, then went all-in on a Sauce Gardner trade that now looks to be a serious mistake. The GM, Chris Ballard, was just fired in part because of that misread, but more so for the overall lack of success under his watch. How will Nolan Teasley evaluate this great start in his first season with the Vikings? Are they truly good enough to warrant paying a decent price for someone like Nelson or Taylor and try to make a run at the Super Bowl right now? Or is the team very good, but not just a move or two away from title contention? It’s a big question to answer. 

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in 2026 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 26, Colts 10. I haven’t picked against Minnesota thus far in 2026. That’s not going to change now. The Colts are one of the least successful teams in third-and-long situations, and the Vikings are perhaps the best NFL defense in third-and-long spots. This one shouldn’t be close.

Krawczynski: Vikings 27, Colts 13. Alec and I are on the same page, which is probably bad news for him. But I think this offense will be as healthy and aligned as it has been all season. The defense is probably frothing at the mouth after a week off. This one should not be difficult.