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Dane Midseason Notebook

JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#1 · Oct 17, 10:15 AM
Cricket
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Drew Mestemaker is the 2027 NFL Draft’s new QB1. What else have we learned about this class?

Scouting college prospects — especially quarterbacks — on a week-to-week basis is like riding a roller coaster, full of ups and downs. That’s why I generally wait until midseason, with a workable sample size of games, to update prospect rankings.

My updated top-50 board for the 2027 NFL Draft will be live in a few weeks. For now, here are some of the main takeaways I’ve had while working to update those rankings …

New name atop the quarterback rankings

Based on the first six weeks of the season, Drew Mestemaker is my new QB1 for the 2027 NFL Draft.

The Oklahoma State quarterback was already in the first-round mix over the summer (QB4 and No. 30 on my preseason top 50), but I wanted to see him against better competition after his transfer from North Texas. So far, he looks even better.

Mestemaker checks the physical boxes — big and athletic with a strong arm. His skill set is reminiscent of Tyler Shough’s, although Mestemaker isn’t overaged (Shough was 26 at the start of his rookie season) and offers more upside as an NFL starter.

Though his game has raw elements, there are far more positives. His passes can run hot at times, which disrupts his ball placement, but he also makes keyhole throws with natural accuracy. He will stubbornly fit the ball into tight spots, but quick-expiring windows don’t intimidate him.

You want to blitz him? Mestemaker has the toughness to hang in the pocket and deliver. What about drop-eight situations? He is completing 76 percent of his passes against eight coverage defenders, with 13 of his 19 completions in those situations resulting in a first down or touchdown.

His arm confidence can backfire at times, but I love the way Mestemaker is wired. No matter the score or situation, he plays with a slow heartbeat and unforced bravado. According to NFL scouts speaking on condition of anonymity because they’re not permitted to publicly discuss prospects, that self-assured mindset and competitive streak extends off the field, as well.

There is no substitute for experience, and Mestemaker is lacking in that category — his path to this point is unprecedented. There are also some questions about the jump from Oklahoma State’s scheme to an NFL-level offense. But Mestemaker has the physical and mental tools that NFL teams will be willing to bet on early in the draft.

Time will tell if he declares. If he continues playing at this pace, however, saying no to the NFL will be extremely difficult.

The rest of this QB class is as talented as it is perplexing

In my quarterback preview over the summer, I wrote that it would be tough for this class to live up to the immense hype. At some point, this class was pegged as potentially “historic” — which, as we’ve now seen, it is not going to be. But it can still be a good class!

Notre Dame’s CJ Carr doesn’t have Mestemaker’s high-level tools, but his physical traits are above the line, and his command and execution will translate well to the pro game. It won’t be surprising if he stays in school, but he could lock up first-round status with strong performances against Miami on Nov. 7 and in the College Football Playoff.

It is a similar situation with Miami’s Darian Mensah. He doesn’t have an explosive arm, but the production speaks for itself (albeit against lackluster competition thus far). His showdown with Notre Dame and performance in the Playoff will carry a ton of weight.

Texas’ Arch Manning hasn’t been the disaster that social media would lead you to believe, but he also hasn’t developed at the pace NFL teams hoped. Plenty of evaluators around the NFL remain bullish that Manning will get there, but how he performs over the second half of this season will determine a lot.

The buzz on Oregon’s Dante Moore has certainly cooled, and scouts want to see him elevate the Ducks’ offense upon his return from a concussion.

South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers will always have fans around the league because of his rare package of traits. Can he string together more outings like what he showed against Florida? He’s going first round if he does.

Missouri’s Austin Simmons continues to gain steam, even if scouts think he is a year away from declaring. Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey has an NFL arm and mind, although scouts worry his average foot quickness and body twitch could be limiting factors. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is a smart, accurate quarterback who is probably making more per season in Columbus than he would on an NFL rookie contract.

Among the seniors, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss entered the year as the top quarterback, and that hasn’t changed. His size means he’s a “not for everyone” prospect, but his arm talent and mobility make him a playmaker — and plenty of NFL teams are looking for playmakers. USC’s Jayden Maiava and Indiana’s Josh Hoover are viewed as potential Day 2 picks who can bring competition to a quarterback depth chart.

Will the blue-chip talent please stand up?

Even with sky-high praise and expectations, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith continues to wow evaluators. He is “the best (prospect) since Calvin (Johnson),” according to one NFL scout, and will hold up as the unquestioned No. 1 prospect in the class from start to finish.

After that? There are more questions than answers.

South Carolina pass rusher Dylan Stewart is a freaky talent but still underdeveloped in areas, and he deserves scrutiny after his blowup with the Gamecocks’ coaches and subsequent suspension. Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman is an outstanding talent, but his physicality and route running are lacking too often. His teammate, left tackle Trevor Goosby, has been solid but has left evaluators wanting more.

I could keep going. Feeling comfortable about picking the top-10 prospects isn’t easy at this point.

It hasn’t been all murky. Aside from his recent concussion, Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore has been playing up to his top-10 expectations. Texas pass rusher Colin Simmons hasn’t been quite as dominant as his 9 1/2 sacks would suggest, but he has been disruptive and is securing his top-10 spot. Indiana wide receiver Charlie Becker is big, fast and sure-handed — he’s going high.

One more name I wanted to mention: Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam has destroyed single blocks all season. I’m not ready to categorize the Penn State transfer as a blue-chip prospect just yet, but his disruptive nature has him in the first-round mix, and rising.

LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN

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#2 · Oct 17, 10:21 AM CT
JustInTime
Joined Feb 2025
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Over the last five years, an average of 6.8 safeties have been drafted in the top 100. Depending on which underclassmen declare, the 2027 safeties class might reach double digits on the draft’s first two days.

PLEASE!

“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

Liked:
#3 · Oct 17, 10:29 AM CT
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