2026 Vikings...

Over the course of the past 10 NFL seasons, the Vikings have the eighth-most wins in the league.

That number speaks to an organizational desire to always be competitive and, I would argue, a combination of talented players and respected coaches often getting the most out of seasons.

Within that number, though, lurks another story about the Vikings. The seven teams ahead of them on the list include multiple Super Bowl winners (Kansas City and Philadelphia) in addition to other teams who have simply been more consistent than Minnesota.

All seven teams have had stretches in the last decade when they made the playoffs at least three seasons in a row.

The Vikings, though, have not made the playoffs even in back-to-back seasons since 2008 and ’09 — all the way back to the Brad Childress coaching era.

Instead, they have typically been on an every-other-year cycle dating back to Mike Zimmer’s tenure and continuing under Kevin O’Connell.

The Mike Zimmer years

The Vikings have run hot and cold for a long time, and the Zimmer era is a good starting point. He was hired in 2014 in the midst of an organizational reboot. Teddy Bridgewater was drafted, and the Vikings took their lumps while going 7-9 and missing the playoffs. A year later, with Bridgewater as the full-time starter, they went 11-5 and won the NFC North. But in 2016, after a catastrophic Bridgewater injury just before the season, they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs (even after starting 5-0). They rebounded with the charmed 13-3 season in 2017 and a run to the NFC title game. Kirk Cousins signed in 2018 as the Vikings sought stability, but they went just 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs. The 2019 bounceback (playoffs) gave way to a regression in 2020 (no playoffs) and then the year that broke the streak (no playoffs in 2021) and ultimately led to Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman getting fired.

The Kevin O’Connell era

O’Connell was hired in 2022 and immediately went 13-4 as the Vikings ran away with the NFC North. But 2023 was a slide back to 7-10, only to pop back up at 14-3 in 2024. Instead of building on that momentum in 2025, however, the Vikings started 4-8. Even though they won their final five games, they were out of the playoff picture with weeks left in the season.

KOC tiebreaker season

This is somewhat of a tiebreaker season for O’Connell. There are clear factors that explain the Vikings’ volatility in recent seasons, which I’ll get to in a minute, but the bottom line of wins and losses tells a story as well. In O’Connell’s up years, the Vikings have gone 27-7. In the down years, they’ve gone 16-18. And just like the Vikings under Zimmer, they have not been able to string two good seasons together.

QBs and close games

The two biggest factors in O’Connell’s success (and general success in the NFL) are clear. When the Vikings have had healthy and above-average veteran quarterback play, as they did in 2022 (Cousins) and 2024 (Sam Darnold), they have excelled. When they have not, as happened in 2023 and 2025 when injuries and underperformance left them vulnerable at quarterback, they have had disappointing seasons. One-score games, too, have been massive indicators of success. O’Connell’s Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games in 2022 and 9-1 in one-score games in 2024. They went a combined 11-12 in one-score games in 2023 and 2025.

What’s at stake

Given that last season was the down year in the cycle, there’s a lot at stake in 2026. While any talk of O’Connell being on a “hot seat” would be premature given the faith organizational leaders have in him (not to mention his lucrative long-term contract that runs through 2029). But Zimmer found out that you need to establish consistency and certainly want to avoid two consecutive disappointing seasons. Beyond just wins and losses, the Vikings are seeking an organizational direction at quarterback while also needing to get younger and less dependent on free agency. Can they thread the needle with a playoff berth in 2026, or will even more questions emerge in 2027? We’ll start to sort things out when training camp opens next week.

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