5 Games That Will Have a Major Impact
RandBall: Five games that will make or break the Vikings this season
The Vikings find themselves in a familiar position with quarterbacks and expectations. A handful of key games could determine their future.
The Vikings under head coach Kevin O’Connell have offered us plenty of ups and downs — and in the process given us a near-perfect snapshot of the modern NFL.
In all four completed seasons of O’Connell’s tenure, the Vikings were projected by betting and analytics sites to win somewhere between 7.5 and nine games.
They overachieved those expectations dramatically in 2022 (13 victories) and 2024 (14 victories), thanks in large part to impeccable performances in close games and consistent play from healthy veteran quarterbacks.
They underachieved in 2023 when QB health and close game performance abandoned them. They rallied with five wins to close 2025 and beat their 8.5-win projection, but only after starting 4-8 and taking advantage of less-impactful games down the stretch. They certainly underachieved compared to their internal expectations.
In 2026, the Vikings find themselves in oh-so-familiar territory. Again, sites have pegged their projected win total at 8.5.
As I talked about on Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast, the season and overall trajectory of the O’Connell era might come down to a handful of key games.
Will the Vikings overachieve relative to projections and deliver a double-digit victory season and playoff berth that give O’Connell more positive seasons than negative ones? Or will they underachieve, raising questions about their future direction?
There are a handful of games on paper they will probably win. There are a handful they will probably lose. And then there are the critical tossup games.
Let’s look at five games in 2026 that will have a major impact on which way things go:
Packers at Vikings, Sept. 13
In a make-or-break type of season, why not open things with an absolutely huge game. This carries obvious significance from a number of standpoints. Projections have the Vikings as the last place team in the NFC North. Pro Football Focus likes the Packers to win about 10 games, making them a solid playoff candidate. Bank a win against Green Bay in the opener, and you’re 1-0 in your division, in the NFC and in tossup games. Lose and you’re 0-1 in all those categories, plus you’ve dropped a home game. Add in that there will be enormous scrutiny on the Vikings’ QB play in the opener — speaking of a familiar Vikings feeling, we’re still not sure if it will be veteran favorite Kyler Murray or young incumbent J.J. McCarthy — and the first of 17 games has enormous weight.
Vikings at Bears, Sept. 20
The Bears won the NFC North in surprising fashion last season. The Vikings, even through all their struggles in 2025, won at Soldier Field in Week 1 and could have swept the Bears if not for a slow start and late special teams gaffe at U.S. Bank Stadium. This game carries weight regardless of how Week 1 vs. the Packers goes. Win that one and there’s a chance to start 2-0 with two division wins. Lose that one and this game becomes something close to a must-win if the Vikings hope to compete in the division.
49ers vs. Vikings, Nov. 22
This game comes at the end of the Vikings’ most difficult stretch of the season: at Detroit, home against Buffalo and at Green Bay before playing the 49ers in Mexico City. The Vikings will have played nine games at this point and very well could either be 4-5 or 5-4 based on their schedule to that point. A win over the 49ers could catapult them to a winning streak, with winnable home games against the Falcons and Panthers next on the schedule. A loss in a conference game could damage their playoff chances.
Lions at Vikings, Dec. 20
Projection sites like the Lions to enjoy a bounceback season with between 10 and 11 wins after a disappointing 9-8 finish a year ago. If Detroit ends up playing like a division favorite and the Vikings are good enough to be a contender, this game will have huge implications.
Bears at Vikings, Week 18
We circle the final game of the regular season a lot, and often times it ends up being meaningless if things haven’t gone the way anyone planned. But let’s imagine for a moment that the Vikings and Bears have been reasonably good up to this point and both carry 9-7 records into the finale. A playoff berth, or maybe even a division title, could be on the line in early January at U.S. Bank Stadium. And the result could shape decisions far beyond 2026.
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