53 Man Roster Projection ~ Offense
More Than Just a 53-Man Vikings Roster Projection Part 1: Offense
As the Minnesota Vikings and the rest of the NFL move through the no-man’s land from the conclusion of the off-season program until the start of training camp, I took a stab at a 53-man roster projection after cuts are made at the end of August.
* Quarterback (3)
QB1: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is the heavy favorite to win the QB competition, and I expect he will be named the starter early in training camp.
It’ll be a challenge for Murray to learn the Vikings’ scheme, but once he’s comfortable in the system, he’ll have the best team around him in his career which should lead to one of his more productive seasons, PFF divides quarterback accuracy into four categories: perfectly accurate, accurate, catchable but inaccurate, uncatchable and inaccurate, and other. Last season Murray had the highest percentage (69.3%) of accurate throws in the league, albeit on a smaller sample size given he only played five games. That is basically a 180-degree difference from the accuracy the Vikings had at quarterback last year between J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer- all of whom ranked near the bottom of the league in accuracy.
If you look at every pass attempt from Murray last season, what stands out is a lot of routine completions in the short passing game to move the chains, which was a big part of offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s offensive scheme, and more mixed results in the deeper passing game. There were a few issues that showed up on tape in the deeper passing game. Miscommunication on the route shows up at least a few times. There are a couple drops and on another deep attempt Murray was hit as he threw. Murray had only 16 attempts of 20+ yards in five games last season. Bottom line, I don’t see an accuracy issue with Murray on deeper throws when top QBs have just over 50% accuracy on deep throws. But Murray hasn’t had a great receiver corps to work with the last few years, particularly on deeper routes. He’ll have that again with Jefferson and Addison in Minnesota.
QB2: J.J. McCarthy
Beat writers attending the offseason practice sessions report that McCarthy has improved/changed his mechanics, which appear smoother, but not as much on his ability to throw with touch and layer the ball.
McCarthy needs to show substantial improvement if he is to be a starter again. There are a lot of areas for improvement, from accuracy and processing to throwing with touch and anticipation to getting the offense the play on time and getting to the right play at the line of scrimmage. But looking at every pass attempt last season (sacks and unscheduled runs excluded) the one thing that repeats over and over again is McCarthy’s inaccuracy.
So, McCarthy has his work cut out for him to win the starting job. But at a minimum he needs to improve his accuracy, ball placement and touch.
QB3: Carson Wentz
Wentz coming back with an offseason to prepare, although he may not get a lot of reps, rather than coming off the couch at the end of August, should help his comfort level running the Vikings’ offense this season if he’s called upon to do so.
Practice Squad: Max Brosmer
* Running Back/Fullback (4)
RB1: Aaron Jones
This is likely the last season for Aaron Jones, who is in the last year of a restructured contract. While he can still be an effective back and is a locker room asset, he had the lowest PFF grades of his career last season...
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jones has a reduced role as the season goes on, depending on how well he plays.
RB2: Jordan Mason
Mason was the Vikings’ most productive back last season in terms of total rush yards and yards per carry. If he could be more of a three-down back in terms of pass protection, he may emerge as RB1 this season. Mason is also in a contract year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is extended. Mason is the thunder in the Vikings rushing attack with the power to break tackles and pick up extra yards when he gets to the second level. He has quietly been one of the better backs in recent years. Last year he was top ten in yards per carry (4.8), PFF run grade (83.8), and yards per carry after contact (3.41).
RB3: Demond Claiborne
I’ll give Claiborne an upward arrow as a new but ascending talent who earns the RB3 role. He is a smaller back at 5’10”, 190 lbs., but he has 4.37” speed with quick acceleration and good vision.
FB: Max Bredeson
Bredeson may well prove to be an upgrade to C.J. Ham at fullback/H-back as a rookie and that’s why he gets the up arrow. His blocking highlight reel at Michigan last year is amazing and extensive. And depending on how the Vikings run scheme changes with Frank Smith, he might get 300 snaps on offense this season. We’ll see how things pan out, but Bredeson may prove to be an important role player on offense for years to come. He is also likely to see significant snaps on special teams.
Cut/Practice Squad: Zavier Scott, Kejon Owens
Zavier Scott could see some callups from the practice squad, if he lands there, in the event of an injury. He actually had good PFF grades last season on limited snaps, except as a runner, and there is a scenario if Claiborne isn’t ready and Jones is injured that Scott becomes his replacement.
I don’t see a viable path for Owen’s to make the roster. He could be placed on the practice squad but there may be better candidates.
* Wide Receiver (5)
WR1: Justin Jefferson
With Kyler Murray at quarterback, I expect Jefferson and really all receivers to benefit from more accurate passing and better quarterback play in general.
Last year Jefferson was basically given training camp off after tweaking a hamstring. While that’s understandable- no need to risk injury to the team’s best player- I hope he gets more work in training camp this year. The reason is to hit the ground running, especially if Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback, and not have to spend longer than necessary developing a rapport in the early part of the season.
WR2: Jordan Addison
Addison could have his first 1,000 yard season. He was close his first two seasons but fell back to 610 yards last season after missing 3 games with a suspension and poor quarterback play. One uncredited aspect of Addison’s play that has quietly improved is his run blocking. At 175 pounds he’s never going to be an elite blocker, but he is effective as a willing shield who gets the job done. And not just against cornerbacks either. Sometimes he’s been effective shielding linebackers from making the play too. His PFF run-blocking grade last season was 66.9- fifth-highest on the team. And that game-winning jet sweep against the Lions last season could be reprised occasionally this season too.
WR3: Jauan Jennings
There’s no comparing Jennings with Jalen Nailor, who was WR3 last season- they’re just different. Jennings has been every bit as productive as Nailor in the past, but in different ways. Nailor was more of a big play threat while Jennings is more of a move-the-chains and red zone guy.
You might also describe him as a hybrid wide receiver/tight end. But the main thing is that Jennings is a better complement to Addison and Jefferson as a receiver, and a better fit for where the Vikings are headed in terms of scheme as a tough, physical, big-bodied receiver who can block as well.
WR4: Tai Felton
Early reviews on Felton in the offseason program have been positive with beat writers who attended OTAs and minicamp generally commenting that he looks improved.
That may not translate into more snaps on offense, however, absent injury. But the key for Felton is can he show enough improvement where he may be a consideration to move up the depth chart next year and give the Vikings an option if they don’t want to allocate more salary cap to the receiver group in extending Jordan Addison.
WR5: Myles Price
Myles Price is also getting positive reviews as a receiver in the offseason program. Again, that may not result in more offensive snaps absent injury, but if Price could prove to be a decent replacement for Addison if he were injured, while maintaining his returner duties, he will have proven to be a nice UDFA addition.
Cut/Practice Squad: Dillon Bell, Trayvon Rudolph, Jeshaun Jones, Dontae Fleming, Michael Briscoe, Marcus Sanders Jr., Terril Davis, Luke Wysong.
Dillon Bell has shined in the offseason program and I would consider him a bubble player and the most likely receiver to make the roster from the list of projected cuts above. He had the most guaranteed salary among the Vikings’ UDFAs at $272k. But the Vikings have generally carried five receivers on their roster the past couple years. Trishton Jackson made the 53-man roster initially in 2024 but was cut after they signed a third running back a month later. Jalen Reagor made the initial 53-man roster in 2023 but was waived the next day.
But there is a scenario where Bell makes the roster if Price were to lose his return duties to Demond Claiborne, for example, and the Vikings opted for a bigger-bodied receiver in Bell to backup Jennings and Bell also proved to have significant special teams value. But Bell was a below average separator in college and that might catch-up with him as he goes through training camp and preseason. He also didn’t play a lot of special teams at Georgia and didn’t grade well as a blocker. Keep in mind a lot of UDFA receivers have flashed over the years with the Vikings and failed to make the roster. Having special teams value is key to making the roster at the back end of the receiver depth chart- at least as important as flashes in preseason or training camp. The likelihood of a WR5 seeing the field much on offense is pretty remote, so being able to contribute significantly on special teams is important to justify a roster spot.
LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN
CONTINUED....
Offensive Line (10)
The Vikings did not extend OL coach Chris Kuper, whose contract expired after last season, opting to promote assistant OL coach Keith Carter instead. Carter had previously spent five seasons as OL coach with the Titans (2018-22) and two seasons in the same job with the Jets (2023-24). Carter’s O-lines generally had top-10 team run blocking grades and good running backs (Derrick Henry and Breece Hall) that ran for a lot of yards.
The Vikings have generally kept ten offensive linemen on the roster the past couple of years, and I think that is becoming the new normal to prepare for the seemingly inevitable injuries. The top seven spots on the depth chart are pretty well set, but the last three are more competitive.
LT: Christian Darrisaw
Signs throughout the offseason program are pointing toward Darrisaw returning to full health. He did have one scheduled day off, which shows the Vikings are still being cautious, but he has been practicing without the knee brace he had last season and has been very active in practices. Teammates like Brian O’Neill get the impression that he is back to his pre-injury status, which would be an improvement over last season both in performance while on the field and how often he is on the field. Last season Darrisaw played only half the offensive snaps and his PFF grades were significantly below his pre-injury average.
LG: Donovan Jackson
Jackson had a decent, rather than great, rookie year but he is likely to build on that this season. Rookie offensive lineman almost always need to get stronger to stand up to bigger, stronger, and more physically mature defensive linemen in the NFL and Jackson will have done that with a year in an NFL strength program while also continuing to improve his technique. Jackson has near prototypical size (6’4”, 320 pounds) and length (33.5” arms) for a guard with good athleticism and with a year of experience under his belt, he is less likely to get caught off guard this season. He missed three games last season with an injured wrist.
C: Blake Brandel
Brandel played every position but right guard last season. He was originally drafted as a tackle, was later moved inside to guard where he started one season at left guard, and last year became the backup center- a position he hadn’t played before. He had a rough first couple starts at center- the Eagles game in particular was rough- but he improved in his third start against the Chargers and in his last four starts gave up an average of just one pressure per game. His run blocking grade is average, but with an offseason to focus on playing center Brandel could improve on his results last year and be a better center than he was a left guard. Brandel is in a contract year and with a solid and improved performance could earn himself a modest extension. Brandel isn’t the most gifted athletically but reviewing his games as a starter at center last season, that didn’t appear to be much of a factor. The main factors with poor reps were poor technique-poor use of hands, poor pad level, not sustaining blocks. His worst reps that led to quick pressures occurred when he was caught off guard by an infrequently used pass rush move or a twisting player breaking through at an angle. These were rare. He generally had quick first steps on zone down blocks and could maneuver to get the proper angle on a 1-tech, although he did this less well. Brandel’s ceiling may not be much higher than an above average center at this stage of his career, but he could be that with more consistency in his technique and familiarity with playing center.
RG: Will Fries
Will Fries’ 2025 blocking grades look a lot like his 2023 blocking grades, which were average. His 2024 blocking stats, which were excellent, were over a small sample size of 5 games and at this point look like an outlier. The point here is that 2025 Will Fries is more in line with his career stats than the small 2024 sample size (which led to his current contract). So, at this point in his career, I am expecting Fries to have similar performance to last season. However, there are a couple factors that could lead to improved performance. One, this is effectively a contract year for Fries. He’s got three more years on his contract, but at $21.5 million/year cap hit, which the Vikings can get out of for a $12 million dead cap hit next year, he needs to perform more like his 2024 level (PFF grades in the 80s vs. PFF grades in the 60s last year) to have any hope of keeping his current contract. So, that may be motivation for a better 2026 season. He may also improve as he is now more familiar with the scheme and linemates and with a quarterback who doesn’t hold the ball as long. But I’m not counting on that. Fries may play well enough so the Vikings may want to keep him but with a restructured contract. But it also appears they are developing options to Fries in 2027, which could include Caleb Tiernan and the other backup guards on the roster.
RT: Brian O’Neill
Brian O’Neill has an overall PFF grade average of around 80 for the past several seasons, including an 81.6 overall season grade last year. I expect a similar grade this season. The main concern with O’Neill at this point is his durability. He missed three games last season and often gets banged up. He’s never missed more than three games in a season, however, and hopefully that continues.
The Vikings are in contract extension discussions with O’Neill and his agent and I wouldn’t be surprised is a deal is announced sometime during training camp.
Swing Tackle: Ryan Van Demark
Van Demark was a free agent acquisition from Buffalo to replace Justin Skule as swing tackle, who was a disappointment last year. Van Demark had four starts last season, facing mostly Cam Jordan in New Orleans at right tackle, Alex Highsmith or TJ Watt at left tackle against Pittsburgh, and against Cincinnati and the Jets to end the season. He fared pretty well overall considering some tougher competition, but he gave up sacks to Cam Jordan and Will Anderson Jr. in relief duty against the Texans. He can hold his own against average edge rushers but will need some help should he face Micah Parsons or Aiden Hutchinson.
Backup Swing Tackle: Caleb Tiernan
As a third-round pick, Tiernan is a lock to make the roster. What the plan is for him however is more of a question. Given he played tackle in college, he’s likely to be a backup swing tackle in 2026. However, he was seen as a candidate to move inside to guard in the league as he lacks ideal length (32.5” arms) and agility to play tackle. So, I would not be surprised if they look at Tiernan as a potential replacement for Will Fries at right guard, if he underperforms the contract Adofo-Mensah signed him to or the Vikings decide they don’t want a third big contract in the group. Being able to play guard or tackle would be a plus as well from a versatility standpoint. From an improvement standpoint this season, I’ll give him a slight plus over Walter Rouse as a rookie, who he effectively replaces as backup swing tackle, but longer term I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays guard.
Interior Backup: Joe Huber
Joe Huber made the 53-man roster last season as a UDFA after having a good training camp and preseason. He also remained on the roster throughout last season. He was active for 12 games, mostly as a special teamer, but he did have one start at left guard week five against the Browns, as both Donovan Jackson and Ryan Kelly were out, and Blake Brandel replaced Kelly at center. Huber did not grade well in that start according to PFF, which assigned him a 40.8 overall grade. He gave up a sack on a nice spin move from the defensive tackle that caught him off-guard; was called for holding on a second-level block which was unfortunate and perhaps unnecessary and negated an explosive run by Jordan Mason; gave up three other QB hurries and had a false start penalty. Having said all that, looking at his tape from that game was encouraging. He showed good technique throughout the game and didn’t seem overwhelmed in his first NFL start. He had a couple key run blocks and apart from the spin move held his own in pass protection. Clearly he needs to clean up the penalties, but more experience will help him adjust to the NFL game. He’s also likely to be stronger this year after being in an NFL strength and conditioning program for a year.
G/T Backup: Walter Rouse
Rouse may have lost his backup swing tackle job to Caleb Tiernan, but he has also reportedly been getting some reps at guard this offseason- which is probably a better spot for him given his size but limited athleticism. This is a bit of a projection, but I could see Rouse making the roster primarily as a backup right guard who could play tackle in a pinch. His utility as a tackle appeared to decline significantly to the Vikings after more extended snaps week 8 against the Chargers. Rouse was not used again the rest of the season as a backup tackle, despite on-going injuries. And Blake Brandel got the start week 17 against the Lions and Aiden Hutchinson at right tackle, despite never having played the position in a regular season game. All that points to Rouse not being able to hold a roster spot as a tackle-only. However, at 6’6” and now listed at 330 pounds on the Vikings website (he was 313 at the Combine) he may earn a roster spot as a backup guard who could play tackle in a pinch too. Rouse is a load who can displace D-linemen in the run game and absorb bull rushes in pass protection. He can be a bit grabby at times with his 35” arms and 10” hands, but he also knows how to use them to his advantage at times too. But overall Rouse is a bubble player who is competing with guys like Henry Byrd and others for one of the last spots on the depth chart.
LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN
CONTINUED....
Backup Center: Gavin Gerhardt
This is a difficult one to predict and there could be several competitors including Michael Jurgens, Henry Byrd, Joe Huber, and Vershon Lee. Jurgens is the incumbent and played just over 300 snaps last season- and that experience is valuable in competing against others without it- but Jurgens also has athletic limitations that really impact his ability to be a quality starter. He’s not particularly agile and he really struggled to make second-level blocks at all last season. My guess is that the Vikings may want a guy who has a higher ceiling than Jurgens who can develop into a quality starter with Blake Brandel on the last year of his contract and perhaps not the starter they’d like to have at center. I went with Gerhardt here, as I’m not sure how committed the Vikings are to trying Byrd or Huber at center, but either of those guys could win the job. Jurgens may prove to be the best option as well at this juncture, but the Vikings drafting Gerhardt is a sign they are looking to upgrade this spot.
Gavin Gerhardt played center in college and was a 7th round pick for the Vikings this year. He comes across as a solid and mature individual and played with Ivan Pace Jr. and Joe Huber while they were at Cincinnati. Comparing Gerhardt to Michael Jurgens, Gerhardt had slightly better PFF grades in college while playing center (Jurgens had his best grades at left guard) and a slightly better RAS, although Gerhardt’s poor 10-yard split and vertical jump could mean he isn’t as explosive off the snap. He does have a better short shuttle time than Jurgens and showed some ability with second-level blocks at Cincinnati that Jurgens did not demonstrate in his starts last season, but college and the league are obviously different situations. Gerhardt started at center for four seasons at Cincinnati.
Cut/Practice Squad: Michael Jurgens, Henry Byrd, Vershon Lee, Gavin Gerhardt, Tomas Rimac, Delby Lemieux, Tristan Leigh
Michael Jurgens was a 7th round pick in 2024 and was called upon to start last season three times and filled in on several other occasions, compiling just over 300 snaps at center. He produced average PFF blocking grades (low 60s) in both pass and run blocking but also showed limitations. Jurgens is a limited athlete and while he was able to handle what I would call straight up situations just fine- down blocks, bull rushes, double teams- he struggles with twists, defending other pass rush moves, and second-level blocks. It’s not really a matter of technique as much as it is simply his physical limitations. Having said that, he is a viable backup option who provides a baseline his competition will have to clear to gain his roster spot.
Henry Byrd has been on the practice squad for the past three seasons with the Vikings after not making the roster in Denver as a UDFA in 2023. He was called up from the practice squad week 3 and 5 last season and played on special teams before being signed to the active roster for the last two games of the season. He has an excellent 9+ RAS as a tackle and higher at guard or center, with good length (33.63” arms) for any position on the offensive line. He’s generally graded well in preseason action except for a start against the Eagles in 2024 and has played every position but right guard. At his press conference during minicamp, Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips was asked how he might replace the versatile Blake Brandel as a backup, who had played every position but is now the starting center. Phillips mentioned Byrd, who has played tackle, guard and a handful of preseason reps at center- and is cross-training at center. That mention may not mean anything in terms of Byrd making the roster, but his versatility is a plus- particularly if he has a good training camp and preseason. It’ll be interesting to see if Byrd gets much of a look at center, but if so he could challenge Michael Jurgens for the backup spot.
Tomas Rimac is a guard with a high RAS (9.97) who played every position but center last year for Virginia Tech. He looked like he had a bit more work to do on his technique from his college tape but he would make a good practice squad candidate if he doesn’t make the roster.
Tristan Leigh drew a lot of interest in the pre-draft process and the Vikings needed to guarantee $262k of his salary as a UDFA to sign him, second-most among Vikings’ UDFAs. He played left tackle at Clemson but doesn’t show the athleticism to play tackle in the league- more likely a candidate at guard. His RAS based on his pro day results was a poor 4.39 at guard and just 2.43 at tackle. He had poor results for both shuttle and 3-cone, vertical jump and bench press- just 16 reps. His tape against LSU week one of last season was decent, but it seems like he’d do better in a phone booth rather than in space. He was a five-star recruit out of high school. Overall, Leigh doesn’t seem to be particularly compelling in terms of securing a roster spot. Maybe practice squad if he has a good training camp.
Delby Lemieux played tackle at Dartmouth but doesn’t have the length or size to play tackle in the league. He is likely a center/guard candidate. He has a great RAS, particularly his agility and speed scores, but just 31 3/8” arms and 8.8” hands. He had excellent PFF grades in college against Ivy League competition, which isn’t so good in football. He is said to have good hand technique but needing to improve his footwork. But between taking a big jump in competition and learning a new position, Lemieux is more of a candidate for practice squad than a roster spot.
Vershon Lee was on the practice squad last year and did get called up to the active roster a couple times when injuries hit but only played on special teams. He’s played at guard and center and is about as wide-bodied as they come and has good first step explosion tests. He can hold his own against bull rushers, and is pretty good against twists, but his lack of agility does show up at times, particularly against more athletic defensive tackles/linebackers or those with a more sophisticated pass rush tool kit. Despite his lack of athleticism, he is okay on second-level blocks. Not the best, but he can execute them. Overall, his technique is a bit sloppy/inconsistent, but with some improvement in training camp he could land one of the last roster spots in this group as an interior backup.
Tight Ends (3)
My sense is that the role of tight ends in the Vikings offense is changing a bit. Their main function now is being a movable blocker, with a secondary function of catching a check-down to move the chains or in the red zone and occasionally surprise the defense on a seam route for a big gain. The value of a tight end will be measured in successful block rate and yards-after-catch.
TE1: T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson’s days as a more dynamic pass-catching tight end are likely over. He hasn’t been the same since his knee injury a few years ago. He was asked to restructure his contract or be cut and the result was a lowered salary cap hit in what is now the last year of his contract. He is unlikely to be extended. And while Hockenson’s receiving volume was down like all receiver’s was last season, there wasn’t anything Hockenson did that Josh Oliver didn’t do better. Oliver was both a better blocker and a more efficient receiver. Perhaps Hockenson will rebound a bit this season with better quarterback play and as it is now a contract year for him, but I also wonder if his snap count and opportunities beyond simple check-downs will be more limited. The addition of Jauan Jennings as WR3 could cut into Hockenson’s targets.
A highly paid tight-end is expected to be able to create YAC as a receiver and be an asset as a blocker. Hockenson isn’t really either at this point. Looking at all of his targets last year, Hockenson was fairly pedestrian as a receiver. Lots of checkdowns of course, most of which produced few yards after catch. Hockenson was also targeted on a fair number of tight-end screens, most of which seemed like they would have been more productive with a more dynamic tight-end. Overall, there just wasn’t a lot of difficulty in what Hockenson was asked to do and he was pretty average doing it.
The same is true with his blocking. Hockenson wasn’t asked to do as much as Josh Oliver as a blocker- fairly routine blocking assignments for a tight-end though- and he was fairly average in doing it going by PFF grades.
Bottom line, a rising quarterback tide lifts all receiver boats and Hockenson could benefit accordingly, but I don’t see him improving much at this point in his career and his role as a receiver could be more limited than it has been in the past.
TE2: Josh Oliver
Oliver is the Vikings’ best blocking tight end and one of the better blocking tight ends in the league. He’s a bit underrated as a receiver as well. Not that he’s an elite receiver for a tight end, but he does just fine. I could see the Vikings using Oliver a bit more as a part of Frank Smith-inspired scheme changes. Oliver was signed to a 3-year extension last year, in what I believe was the largest AAV ($7.75M) for a TE2 in the league.
Overall, I expect Oliver to be a steady TE2 for the Vikings and an important role player on offense.
TE3: Ben Yurosek
Top two spots pretty well established and I see Yurosek holding his roster spot over Gavin Bartholomew and Bryson Nesbit. Max Bredeson can also play tight end and he might see the field before Yurosek. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings use their tight ends this season. I get the sense that Hockenson will have a more limited check-down route tree and fewer targets. Yurosek should improve a bit after his rookie season, but he may not get more than the 116 offensive snaps he had last season, barring injury, and may well get fewer.
Yurosek was an asset on special teams and that should help him secure a roster spot.
LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN
Bottom Line on the Offensive Roster
There’s really not more than a handful of roster spots open on the offensive side, most of those at the bottom of the offensive line depth chart, and other groups that may be decided as much by special teams ability as anything else.
The quarterback situation will get the headlines, but incremental changes at other positions will be important too. And with some scheme changes and a new quarterback likely with a different skill set, the offense could look different from last season.
LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN
Still Hurtn wrote:
Hope Bell makes the team.
Dunno, Felton makes the team better by his special teams play. Deep roster WRs need to be special teamers. If Bell can't do that, it really limits his spot on the team.
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