Media - Vikings Look Underrated

https://www.dailynorseman.com/minnesota-vikings-power-rankings/96916/vikings-look-underrated

It’s not particularly unusual when the national media overlooks the Minnesota Vikings over the spring and summer months. It happens more often than not. After all, the Vikings are not among the largest media market teams and they haven’t been league darlings either, like the Packers often have been or the Lions in more recent years. Even the Bears, who are a large media market team, have generated more buzz the last couple years.

The Vikings suffered from the second-worst quarterback performance in the league last season by PFF passing grade but still managed to go 9-8 despite that major flaw. Apparently the national media is aware the Vikings acquired Kyler Murray, but find that to be largely a lateral move, as the Vikings currently have an 8.5 over/under win total. The early verdict appears to be that the 28-year-old Murray is washed and won’t do enough to move the needle at quarterback for the Vikings.

The Ringer put it this way in ranking the Vikings 23rd in their most recent power rankings:

The Vikings have upgraded at quarterback with the addition of Kyler Murray, who is expected to take the starting job from J.J. McCarthy. But the rest of this team is in the same position as it was when it underperformed last season (or worse off than it was even then). The problem is that the rest of the NFC North is too talented for Murray to make up the distance himself.

Murray will have enough talent around him to protect him from his worst habits when he’s under pressure, but he’ll have to be more effective under pressure and outside the pocket to create explosive plays when this offensive line breaks down (again).

Of course the rest of the team included a defense that ranked 7th in points allowed despite an offense that led the league in turnovers, largely due to Vikings’ quarterbacks leading the league in interceptions, while also ranking last in third down conversion rate. Neither of those do the defense any favors. The Vikings’ defense also ranked third in yards allowed last season. Offensively, it was a down year for the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor given the poor quarterback play, but I’m not sure this year’s trio that replaces Nailor with Jauan Jennings isn’t entirely bereft of talent.

Eric Edholm with NFL dot com didn’t really offer any explanation beyond a cursory run-down of the Vikings’ draft picks in ranking the Vikings 28th on his post-draft power ranking list in mid-May.

ESPN acknowledged that the Vikings did some good at defensive tackle in the draft and in upgrading the quarterback position but still ranked the Vikings’ 24th in their post-draft power rankings. In most power rankings, the other NFC North teams are ranked in the top dozen or so, with the Vikings well down the list.

Betting markets also seem to take a dim view of the Vikings’ prospects this season, implying a last-place division finish consistent with the above power rankings. DraftKings gives the Vikings the worst odds to win the NFC North at +500, significantly behind the Lions (+184) and Packers (+205) and also the Bears at +320.

Overall, it’s not as bad as the 2024 offseason, when the Vikings had a 6.5 over/under win total and were 100-1 shots to win the Super Bowl, as the national view was that Sam Darnold would tough it out for the Vikings as a bridge until J.J. McCarthy was ready/healthy. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman were some interesting mid-tier additions defensively, but parting ways with Danielle Hunter was not something a competitive team would do.

But on the other hand, the Vikings’ offseason odds and rankings this year are a step below where they were last year, when the Vikings had a 9.5 over/under win total and were 25-1 to win the Super Bowl with J.J. McCarthy set to begin his career under center for the Vikings.

One would think a proven veteran in Kyler Murray, who has at least been an average starter since entering the league and sometimes better than average, would provide more of a lift to the Vikings’ prospects after a season of league-bottom quarterback play. But alas the prevailing view is that Murray wore out his welcome in Arizona and is destined to finish-out his career as an uncommitted mid-tier journeyman. He’s not really a good fit for Kevin O’Connell’s under-center offensive anyway, and so his having a resurgence like Darnold may not be in the cards.

Of course I have my doubts about that viewpoint, as do most who’ve done some research into Murray’s career, but narratives about players aren’t easily broken.

It is reasonable to consider other roster changes as a basis for a reduced outlook for the Vikings this season, despite an easier strength of schedule than last season. The Vikings jettisoning aging defensive tackles in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, replacing them with top draft picks Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange, is certainly a basis for that. Rookie defensive tackles don’t often have a big impact. But on the other hand, Allen and Hargrave did not establish a high bar for the rookies to meet. It’s not a big leap of faith for the rookies to have a similar impact, although you’d expect Orange’s impact to be felt more in run defense. And their ability to keep linebackers clean may be as impactful as their own stats.

The trading of Jonathan Greenard may also be seen in the same light as letting Danielle Hunter go in 2024. But just as Greenard and Van Ginkel replaced Hunter’s production, Dallas Turner is on track to replace Greenard’s. Last year Turner had 42 pressures including 9 sacks on 288 pass rush attempts, while Greenard had 47 pressures on 270 pass rush attempts including 4 sacks. Turner is just beginning to realize his potential as a still just 23 year-old and has established a development path where he equals or exceeds Greenard going forward. In many ways it wouldn’t have been fair to Turner to keep him behind Greenard for another year. He’s ready to be the starter.

James Pierre seems a more unheralded addition but despite his age (29) is a viable starter at outside cornerback that may allow Byron Murphy Jr. to spend more time at slot corner, which would probably be helpful compared to the alternatives- mostly safety Josh Metellus. His league-leading PFF coverage grade last season (88.5) may have been an outlier in his career-to-date, but his ability to close after the break led to nine PBUs last season and shows that he was able to develop from a raw talent as a UDFA in 2020. He hasn’t been subject to heavy usage at any point in his career but could be the role of CB3 nicely.

Offensively, beyond quarterback there are really just two changes- Jauan Jennings for Jalen Nailor and Blake Brandel taking over the full-time starting role at center. He played about a third of the snaps at center last year. Ryan Kelly was the best performing offensive lineman in the few games he was healthy last year and I don’t expect Brandel to equal that. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a little better at center now that he’s had a handful of games under his belt and an off-season to practice at the position. He may not be the long-term answer at center for the Vikings but I don’t expect him to be a liability either.

Jauan Jennings may actually prove to be an upgrade over Nailor as a fit for what the Vikings are looking to do this year as more of a blocking/physical/contested catch type WR3.

Beyond that, lots of continuity in terms of coaches and starters. I’d expect more starts from a healthier Christian Darrisaw this year too.

But apparently all that is a recipe for regression for the Vikings in the national view.

We’ll see.