Trump.... you are losing your base

The Epstein stuff, his taxes, the list goes on. Many shady politicians, he's hardly unique. Sad times on all sides of the aisle, I agree.

JimmyinSD wrote:
Plenty arent happy with the the BBB,   now the Epstein shits seems to be getting swept under the rug?  Either he doesn't have the power he thought he did,  or he is selling out.  That whole epstein shit just blows my mind,  and the lack of outrage by our elected officials just dumps more gas on the fire that our 2 party system is broke beyond repair.  

We dont need a third party,  we need to get rid of the parties all together.

This is so fucked up.

Jimmy, Trump is NOT losing his base at all.  Hes the highest rated Republican ever in the polls you don’t believe in.   If you look at polls like Insider Advantage, Tripp IBD, and Rasmussen, you’ll find they’ve been remarkably accurate for some time. It seems like you think you represent the avg American. I don’t think I do and I don’t think you do either. ? 

I do agree and am upset about the Epstein shit, whatever it is.  One thing I do know is he’s no part of it because if he were, it would be leaked. There is something going on bigger than any one individual with this whole thing.  The silence is stunning on all sides. Therefore, I’m going to blame it on all of the above rather than on Trump.  If anyone has been totally transparent, it’s been Trump.  There is a reason why he initially indicated full disclosure and changed. I’m guessing it’s in the best interest of the general public not to know for whatever reason.

Waterboy wrote:
Jimmy, Trump is NOT losing his base at all.  Hes the highest rated Republican ever in the polls you don’t believe in.   If you look at polls like Insider Advantage, Tripp IBD, and Rasmussen, you’ll find they’ve been remarkably accurate for some time. It seems like you think you represent the avg American. I don’t think I do and I don’t think you do either. ? 

I do agree and am upset about the Epstein shit, whatever it is.  One thing I do know is he’s no part of it because if he were, it would be leaked. There is something going on bigger than any one individual with this whole thing.  The silence is stunning on all sides. Therefore, I’m going to blame it on all of the above rather than on Trump.  If anyone has been totally transparent, it’s been Trump.  There is a reason why he initially indicated full disclosure and changed. I’m guessing it’s in the best interest of the general public not to know for whatever reason.

Then he should quit running his mouth about doing things and then backing away.

As far as his polling numbers ,  he's still in the honeymoon phase.  I am expecting his numbers to drop after things like the failed promises of the bbb, the Elon fallout, and now the epstien cover up.  He is going to take some hits on the texas floods,   although I disagree with those being a failure from the federal level, at least at this point.

Trump will never lose his base until they have someone new (and very likely in my opinion— more radical) to flock too. And if he can position his kids well then maybe he can keep his supporters through them.

Even in this thread there’s someone saying they blame everyone on the Epstein list… except for Donald Trump :P.

JimmyinSD wrote:
Then he should quit running his mouth about doing things and then backing away.

As far as his polling numbers ,  he's still in the honeymoon phase.  I am expecting his numbers to drop after things like the failed promises of the bbb, the Elon fallout, and now the epstien cover up.  He is going to take some hits on the texas floods,   although I disagree with those being a failure from the federal level, at least at this point.

Trump has NEVER been in a honeymoon phase.  His support is either there or it's not, and over time as the Dems have become just plain crazy, he's pulled in more supporters.  Those are the only ones truly at risk.  Trump delivers on a far higher % of his promises than any president in American history, yet you're here asking him to land a quadruple flip with no splash.  The BBB is not failed promises.  It is yet tbd.  If you listen to Bessent and Hassett, the scoring of the BBB and assumptions that it will add to the debt are because the CBO is scoring at 1.8% growth.  The attached is a good interview with an interviewer not on Team Trump that should provide some context.  Bottom line, we're talking a gloomy assessment that adds 4 trillion to the debt over 10 years when we've been adding 2 trillion per year of late.   The more realistic assumption is probably some debt reduction, particularly when tariff revenue is factored in.  

It seems like you're putting years of fiscal mismanagement all on Trump's back to fix in six months.  With entitlement spending, that's simply not feasible.  This bill is meant to turn the ship in the right direction.  Subsequential bills will be aimed at getting steam behind that.   He's cutting military spending by having Europe and other countries ante up.  He's leveling the playing field with the tariffs and implementing them in a way that's not inflationary.  He's bringing back vital industries such as steel, lumber, technology, and pharmaceuticals in a myriad of ways.  People can always complain about something, but I think it's crazy to say he's not trying to deliver on nearly every promise he made as a candidate.    

I think the Epstein lack of transparency has been the biggest fumble so far of his presidency, but I think it's still fixable and hopefully he decides to do so.  In terms of importance for the public to know, I don't rate it that high, but it does put a dent in his message of trust and transparency.   He has been by far the best president in that regard in generations, so I'm willing to forgive him a bit, but I don't see a reason that he can't say something without saying too much as pertains to Epstein.  If you start with the fact that we know Prince Andrew was a client and then realize a certain former president may have put himself in a position for the US to be blackmailed and that Trump's team now knows details that we don't, it's understandable that it probably shouldn't be released.  The two errors I see are 1) Overpromising because of good intentions 2) Trying to deny anything exists at this point instead of admitting things exist but can't be divulged at this time.  Of course, that strategy will lead to demands over and over again.  It's a tricky spot.  .

JimmyinSD wrote:
Plenty arent happy with the the BBB,   now the Epstein shits seems to be getting swept under the rug?  Either he doesn't have the power he thought he did,  or he is selling out.  That whole epstein shit just blows my mind,  and the lack of outrage by our elected officials just dumps more gas on the fire that our 2 party system is broke beyond repair.  

We dont need a third party,  we need to get rid of the parties all together.

This is so fucked up.

A couple of thoughts.  

Epstein - If there was anything in there, you don't think we'd know about it by now?  Two Administrations have failed to release information.  My guess is it's a lot of circumstantial stuff like phone records and things like that.  His "client list"?  He was one twisted f@ck but he wasn't running a brothel.  It was friends and acquaintances some of who might have partaken in Epstein's proclivities.  If we found out you were a child molester..would that make everyone on this board a child molester?  Or everybody in your phone directory?  Of course not.  Epstein had a lot of friends and business acquaintances including many in high places that knew nothing about the other side of Epstein.  It would be irresponsible to release contact information without any evidence they had knowledge and/or participation.  There has been nobody else charged in the case other than Maxwell which has surprised me all along.  

The one thing I agree with Waterboy is that you can pretty well guarantee that Trump did indeed break off contact with Epstein 20 years ago as he has repeatedly said because of an incident with Epstein and a member's underage daughter.  How can you guarantee that?  Because we can guarantee that if there was even one 20 minute call to Trump in those files...it would have leaked to the public.  You think the Biden Administration would just sit on that information particularly in a contentious election?  Not a chance in hell.  Having said that, it would be nice to see some of the information released but only that which relates to actual crimes.  A bunch of circumstantial release of names including the majority of those people that had no knowledge of that side of Epstein isn't the right thing to do.

The BBB - As I've said previously, I'll wait until I pass judgement on that in conjunction with other actions such as spending cuts and revenues.  That scoring was a static scoring for the bill alone which included projections related to extending the tax cuts.  Without those tax cuts, the US would have the largest tax increase in history.  That would have tanked the economy.  The Supreme Court is letting the Admin continue with its workforce reduction as of yesterday.  That should help reduces expenses.  Bessent is projecting $300B per year in tariffs which would completely offset the CBO scored BBB over the 10 year period.  Lots of moving parts going on with economic stimulus, tariffs, interest rates.  Inflation has been hovering around the Fed target of 2 percent.  I would expect them to start reducing the Prime Rate at the next meeting.  Reducing Prime reduces interest payments by the Treasury.    Based on what I've read, a 1% reduction in Prime would reduce Fed interest payments by $200B per year over the long term.  The big keys for Trump will be whether he can jump start the economy.  If not, the deficit is doomed.

badgervike wrote:

A couple of thoughts.  

Epstein - If there was anything in there, you don't think we'd know about it by now?  Two Administrations have failed to release information.  My guess is it's a lot of circumstantial stuff like phone records and things like that.  His "client list"?  He was one twisted f@ck but he wasn't running a brothel.  It was friends and acquaintances some of who might have partaken in Epstein's proclivities.  If we found out you were a child molester..would that make everyone on this board a child molester?  Or everybody in your phone directory?  Of course not.  Epstein had a lot of friends and business acquaintances including many in high places that knew nothing about the other side of Epstein.  It would be irresponsible to release contact information without any evidence they had knowledge and/or participation.  There has been nobody else charged in the case other than Maxwell which has surprised me all along.  

The one thing I agree with Waterboy is that you can pretty well guarantee that Trump did indeed break off contact with Epstein 20 years ago as he has repeatedly said because of an incident with Epstein and a member's underage daughter.  How can you guarantee that?  Because we can guarantee that if there was even one 20 minute call to Trump in those files...it would have leaked to the public.  You think the Biden Administration would just sit on that information particularly in a contentious election?  Not a chance in hell.  Having said that, it would be nice to see some of the information released but only that which relates to actual crimes.  A bunch of circumstantial release of names including the majority of those people that had no knowledge of that side of Epstein isn't the right thing to do. 

The BBB - As I've said previously, I'll wait until I pass judgement on that in conjunction with other actions such as spending cuts and revenues.  That scoring was a static scoring for the bill alone which included projections related to extending the tax cuts.  Without those tax cuts, the US would have the largest tax increase in history.  That would have tanked the economy.  The Supreme Court is letting the Admin continue with its workforce reduction as of yesterday.  That should help reduces expenses.  Bessent is projecting $300B per year in tariffs which would completely offset the CBO scored BBB over the 10 year period.  Lots of moving parts going on with economic stimulus, tariffs, interest rates.  Inflation has been hovering around the Fed target of 2 percent.  I would expect them to start reducing the Prime Rate at the next meeting.  Reducing Prime reduces interest payments by the Treasury.    Based on what I've read, a 1% reduction in Prime would reduce Fed interest payments by $200B per year over the long term.  The big keys for Trump will be whether he can jump start the economy.  If not, the deficit is doomed.

Bondi said months ago she was reviewing the list,  now there is no list?   How can his madam be in prison if there was nothing there to convict on.   To much smoke for no fire.  I dont care who's on the list,  the fuckers need to be in prison of they were engaging with trafficked girls and women.

JimmyinSD wrote:
Bondi said months ago she was reviewing the list,  now there is no list?   How can his madam be in prison if there was nothing there to convict on.   To much smoke for no fire.  I dont care who's on the list,  the fuckers need to be in prison of they were engaging with trafficked girls and women.

Again, this isn't Heidi Fleiss.  The vast majority of Epstein's contacts were legitimate business and social contacts that had NO idea that Epstein had a dark side.   Many of those contacts were among the rich and famous.  The problem with releasing "the list" is you are basically requiring people to defend themselves against horrific acts.  They will always wear that Scarlett letter.  

So..if specific individuals that have a proven association and participated in these acts, that's a different deal.  I suspect there isn't as there haven't been more charges.  But releasing a list of those in Epstein's scope of influence with no proof of knowledge or participation in these acts...absolutely not.

The problem with this is the conspiracy theory regarding Epstein has become a cottage industry much like the Kennedy assassinations. That release of the Kennedy information didn't shed any real new knowledge that there was a conspiracy or cover up much like this investigation didn't turn up much. The big difference is you weren't implicating a bunch of innocent people by releasing the Kennedy files. Epstein was friends with a lot of people in high places. Should we tar and feather all of them regardless of whether they had anything to do with Epstein's exploits?

This is the way Team Trump looks at the effects of the BBB and I would take their track record over the CBO's failed track record every day and Sunday. The CBO purposely rewards increased taxes and shuns growth.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/how-cbo-got-wrong-again-trumps-economic-bill-set-generate-trillions-surplus-not-debt

badgervike wrote:

Again, this isn't Heidi Fleiss.  The vast majority of Epstein's contacts were legitimate business and social contacts that had NO idea that Epstein had a dark side.   Many of those contacts were among the rich and famous.  The problem with releasing "the list" is you are basically requiring people to defend themselves against horrific acts.  They will always wear that Scarlett letter.  

So..if specific individuals that have a proven association and participated in these acts, that's a different deal.  I suspect there isn't as there haven't been more charges.  But releasing a list of those in Epstein's scope of influence with no proof of knowledge or participation in these acts...absolutely not.

The problem with this is the conspiracy theory regarding Epstein has become a cottage industry much like the Kennedy assassinations.  That release of the Kennedy information didn't shed any real new knowledge that there was a conspiracy or cover up much like this investigation didn't turn up much.  The big difference is you weren't implicating a bunch of innocent people by releasing the Kennedy files.  Epstein was friends with a lot of people in high places.  Should we tar and feather all of them regardless of whether they had anything to do with Epstein's exploits?

I dont really care about making the associate list public, but we all know there was sick shit happening and the fact that Maxwell is in prison proves it,  you can assume all you want about the amount of innocent people, but common sense says that some of those on that list need to be investigated and prosecuted,  and anybody that was even knowledgeable of the situation and kept quiet should be included, whether they partook or not, which I am guessing is a lot of those on that list.

this isnt about protecting the innocent,  this is about protecting the guilty.

JimmyinSD wrote:

I dont really care about making the associate list public, but we all know there was sick shit happening and the fact that Maxwell is in prison proves it,  you can assume all you want about the amount of innocent people, but common sense says that some of those on that list need to be investigated and prosecuted,  and anybody that was even knowledgeable of the situation and kept quiet should be included, whether they partook or not, which I am guessing is a lot of those on that list.

this isnt about protecting the innocent,  this is about protecting the guilty.

I read today that Bongino is taking the day off over anger at Bondi.  If she's doing what you say, she should be canned immediately.  If there were US citizens who had sex with minors, they should be prosecuted, no doubt.   The list of names doesn't need to be released to do so.  I think this won't go away any time soon.

Trump is undeniably losing a large chunk of his base. I think it's just a matter of whether or not the public is going to yo-yo back and forth between whichever party has pissed them off least recently, or will they flock to 3rd party candidates.

I think Trump has had the ability to flip flop or appear bipolar on issues, but he's flying in direct opposition to what his base wants right now.

medaille wrote:
Trump is undeniably losing a large chunk of his base.  I think it's just a matter of whether or not the public is going to yo-yo back and forth between whichever party has pissed them off least recently, or will they flock to 3rd party candidates.

I think Trump has had the ability to flip flop or appear bipolar on issues, but he's flying in direct opposition to what his base wants right now.

Please show any substantiating evidence to back your point.  I think his “base” is stronger than about any other candidate I’ve ever seen.

medaille wrote:
Trump is undeniably losing a large chunk of his base.  I think it's just a matter of whether or not the public is going to yo-yo back and forth between whichever party has pissed them off least recently, or will they flock to 3rd party candidates.

I think Trump has had the ability to flip flop or appear bipolar on issues, but he's flying in direct opposition to what his base wants right now.

I am  not sure I would say a large chunk,  but I definitely see and hear more people in one of the most historically conservative states (SD) that are speaking out against some of the shit the last few months,  like his spending bill,  like the flopping on the epstein files,  and some other lesser things.  I think his approval rating is down about 6 or 7 points in the last couple months,  not huge,  but definitely showing a slip in his supporters.

JimmyinSD wrote:

I am  not sure I would say a large chunk,  but I definitely see and hear more people in one of the most historically conservative states (SD) that are speaking out against some of the shit the last few months,  like his spending bill,  like the flopping on the epstein files,  and some other lesser things.  I think his approval rating is down about 6 or 7 points in the last couple months,  not huge,  but definitely showing a slip in his supporters.

Who else will they vote for?  You're talking the far right of his base and they're not going anywhere.  .5% may vote Libertarian, the rest are safely stashed and he gains more on the left.  People that supported Trump's agenda going in aren't going anywhere.  He's delivering on nearly 100% of what he promised.  Everything else is noise.  Libtards that didn't give two shits about Epstein want to blow this up, and yes some of his base (me included) want more transparency on the Epstein thing.  BUT......  I know Trump isn't hiding it for personal reasons and I understand that there could be 100 different reasons why it's being handled the way that it is.  Think of it, James Comey's daughter was the prosecutor and just got fired.  Rumor is the Justice Dept couldn't release anything even if they wanted to legally at this point.  The part that's off with me is the messaging.  If that's the reason, say that....  I think it has hurt him in the s-t and will have absolutely 0 effect in the l-t.  The country will compare and contrast these last two presidencies and transparency and it won't be a contest.

Waterboy wrote:

Who else will they vote for?  You're talking the far right of his base and they're not going anywhere.  .5% may vote Libertarian, the rest are safely stashed and he gains more on the left.  People that supported Trump's agenda going in aren't going anywhere.  He's delivering on nearly 100% of what he promised.  Everything else is noise.  Libtards that didn't give two shits about Epstein want to blow this up, and yes some of his base (me included) want more transparency on the Epstein thing.  BUT......  I know Trump isn't hiding it for personal reasons and I understand that there could be 100 different reasons why it's being handled the way that it is.  Think of it, James Comey's daughter was the prosecutor and just got fired.  Rumor is the Justice Dept couldn't release anything even if they wanted to legally at this point.  The part that's off with me is the messaging.  If that's the reason, say that....  I think it has hurt him in the s-t and will have absolutely 0 effect in the l-t.  The country will compare and contrast these last two presidencies and transparency and it won't be a contest.

lol... he cant run again so we arent talking about election consequences,  but as far as his popularity in general.

and you are wrong,  he said he was going to release the epstein stuff or at least put people in jail that were involved with kids, and now his people are trying to claim it doesnt exist,  only a few months after saying that they were reviewing it?  and if you think liberals are the only ones that are pissed off about the change of position on this you are grossly mistaken,  there are plenty of people that voted for him that are not buying the bull shit coming from Bondi and Patel.

He claimed he was going to get rid of the green new deal shit... its still funded, and as far as I know there is now a real easy way for pipeline companies to get their way through private land regardless of the states rulings on them... this is bull shit and if it was a blue tie bill you know damn well your head would be exploding.

and I dont know that I need to remind you about the childish name calling,  even in general terms,  if you cant be respectful of those you disagree with,  then you cant use this forum.

🚨NEW: CNN's Harry Enten says Congressional Dems just hit "THEIR WORST NET APPROVAL RATING" *EVER* — as Epstein attacks on Trump fall flat🚨

"In July of 2025: -13 points — their worst net approval rating for congressional Democrats among Democrats — ever!"

"Donald Trump is not… pic.twitter.com/r2PhsVPb2n

— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) July 17, 2025

WATCH—CNN's Harry Enten "SURPRISED" Trump's approval among GOP has *RISEN* in two recent polls amid Epstein backlash

pic.twitter.com/DOiPLLrYX2

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) July 17, 2025

badgervike wrote:
https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1945839230372184143

WATCH—CNN's Harry Enten "SURPRISED" Trump's approval among GOP has *RISEN* in two recent polls amid Epstein backlash

pic.twitter.com/DOiPLLrYX2

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) July 17, 2025

not sure who they are polling ( where) or how its done ( wording) ,  but I can honestly say I hear even the most ardent Trump backers speak of disappointment in the events of the last couple weeks.... but then I dont really associate with people that would answer a pollsters call.

JimmyinSD wrote:

lol... he cant run again so we arent talking about election consequences,  but as far as his popularity in general.

and you are wrong,  he said he was going to release the epstein stuff or at least put people in jail that were involved with kids, and now his people are trying to claim it doesnt exist,  only a few months after saying that they were reviewing it?  and if you think liberals are the only ones that are pissed off about the change of position on this you are grossly mistaken,  there are plenty of people that voted for him that are not buying the bull shit coming from Bondi and Patel.

He claimed he was going to get rid of the green new deal shit... its still funded, and as far as I know there is now a real easy way for pipeline companies to get their way through private land regardless of the states rulings on them... this is bull shit and if it was a blue tie bill you know damn well your head would be exploding.

and I dont know that I need to remind you about the childish name calling,  even in general terms,  if you cant be respectful of those you disagree with,  then you cant use this forum.

JimmyinSD wrote:

not sure who they are polling ( where) or how its done ( wording) ,  but I can honestly say I hear even the most ardent Trump backers speak of disappointment in the events of the last couple weeks.... but then I dont really associate with people that would answer a pollsters call.

Jimmy, I think you're a little bit of an outlier. :) That's not a bad thing, as I agree with a lot if not most of what you say, and only rarely disagree.   One thing you can be sure about with Trump polls are they're not going to put him in a better light than truly exists.  

You seem to nitpick at smaller parts of larger narratives.  I'm not for anything green at all, but sometimes you need to take some of the bad to get the good in politics.  The BBB certainly is representative of that.  As far as pipelines, I'm okay with the eminent domain logic behind them.  I don't think it should be abused, but it's absolutely necessary.  

I had to search for what I was being chastised for.  That one just came out naturally.  I'll avoid using that term on here that I use almost every day.  :)

JimmyinSD wrote:

I am  not sure I would say a large chunk,  but I definitely see and hear more people in one of the most historically conservative states (SD) that are speaking out against some of the shit the last few months,  like his spending bill,  like the flopping on the epstein files,  and some other lesser things.  I think his approval rating is down about 6 or 7 points in the last couple months,  not huge,  but definitely showing a slip in his supporters.

His approval rating has remained steady throughout.  I still have never got the fascination on the Epstein "list".  Why would there be a list?  Epstein was one sick f@ck but most of it was for his own gratification.  Everyone treats this as a Heidi Fleiss deal.  Did some of his friends / acquaintances partake?  Probably / likely.  Some like the Prince Andrew deal were beyond the statute of limitations.  I liken this to the P Diddy scandal.  A lot of f@cked up things with sex/drugs/ trafficking but most of it was for Diddy's gratification and directed by Diddy.  Did he have a "list"?  Doubt it.  Btw..Trump has asked Bondi to release the Epstein Grand Jury testimony.  I agree with you that transparency is best.  I disagree with anyone that paints that on the Trump Admin.  The Biden Admin had the information their entire term and also did nothing with it.  My guess is it's a lot of circumstantial, uncorroborated or expired details including a lot of rich and famous connections.  I chuckle that people think that Trump is somehow implicated.  You're telling me that Biden sat on the get out of jail free card.  If there was ANYTHING that implicated Trump, it would have been leaked to a willing media partner before the elections.  Glad at least some of the information will come out.  I'm afraid that much like the Kennedy files, it will not live up to the hype.

For the Big Beautiful Bill, I'm willing to give it a chance...not sure why you're not.  The $340B per year cost is highly suspect as it was done using static scoring on the economy including the normal 1.9% economic growth rate.  That's the growth rate they use to score virtually every bill.  I watched a lot of Kevin Hassett discussing the bill.  He's really good by the way.  The economic bill they passed under the first Trump term with the tax cuts was scored at the same 1.9% growth even though Hassett had it scored at 3% growth.  The tax reductions achieved the 3% growth as anticipated...until Covid.  Hassett has the Big Beautiful Bill scored at 5% growth.  The BBB is all about growth.  If the 3% growth (or higher) is achieved, the bill will actually reduce the deficit on its own.  The bill also doesn't account for cost savings from Doge and other cuts nor does it include the projected $300 B per year in tariff revenues.  It also doesn't include some of the cuts that are caught up in litigation which will either be settled or require legislation by Congress.  The US actually had a budget surplus in June.  The first since 2017.  It's a start but far from what any of us fiscal conservatives want.  Trump wants his greatest achievement to be the economy...both on the growth side and the reduction in deficit/debt payments.  Again, lots of moving parts.  I'll wait and see how it turns out.  The Democrats were talking about a $10T Bill Back Better bill ($1T per year)...I'll bet that would have fixed our economy.....not.  Trump has a LOT of faults but he's the first President in a long time who is laser focused on the economy.  Hope he and his team are right.