Clinching a dance ticket...
At 10-2 after Sunday's win over the Cardinals, the Vikings have all but secured their spot in the NFL postseason. FTN Fantasy's DVOA gives them a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.
And they can mathematically clinch a spot this upcoming week. Here's how:
1. Vikings win vs. Falcons
2. Seahawks win at Cardinals
3. Bills win at Rams
Those are the three steps needed for the Vikings to technically clinch in Week 14. The Rams need to lose because they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. The Vikings hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals, but there's still a situation where Arizona wins the NFC West and the Vikings lose the tiebreaker to the Seahawks, who they play in Week 16. That's why the Cardinals also have to lose this week.
More simply, the Vikings just need to win two of their final five games and then none of the other results matter, at least in terms of making the playoffs. They've got the Falcons this week, the Bears the week after that, and they close with the Seahawks (road), Packers, and Lions (road).
The Vikings having ten wins and still being the fifth seed, by virtue of the Lions being 11-1, is an unfortunate reality of the NFL's playoff format that seeds the division winners one through four. Beating Arizona was critical to stay within reach of Detroit, but DVOA still gives the Vikings just an 8.1 percent chance to win the NFC North. The Vikings have a 57.9 percent chance to be the No. 5 seed and a 27.7 percent chance to be the No. 6 seed.
Notably, the Lions host the Packers on Thursday Night Football this week, which means one of them has to lose. A Green Bay win would be huge, as it would boost the Vikings' chances in the division. The consolation of a Detroit win would be that it helps the Vikings hold onto the 5 seed. The Lions then host the 10-2 Bills in Week 15 before finishing with games against the Bears (road), 49ers (road), and Vikings.
This is a big month of December.
Source: SI
Obviously a lot can change in 5 weeks...But its kinda fun to start the watch now that we're in December
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Go...um...Packers?
With some injuries and a game coming up against the Bills (not to mention the Vikings) it would seem the Lions winning the division is maybe not the foregone conclusion it might've seemed a couple weeks ago. They play the 49ers too, but that team just doesn't scare anyone right now.
INJURED:
Aidan Hutchinson
Marcus Davenport
John Cominski
Kyle Peko
Alex Anzalone
Derrick Barnes
Jalen Reeves-Maybin
Ifeatu Melifonwu
Carlton Davis
AND NOW:
Mekhi Wingo
Josh Paschal
Levi Onwuzirke
Malcolm Rodriguez
The Lions are gonna start losing games.
Average margin of Vikings games is +6.3 pts per game.
9th best at scoring points
5th best at giving up points
Only 2 teams are better at both and thats Philly and Detroit.
At the very least its been a fun season to date that very very few honest people saw happening. I know I didnt.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
I think the big question is if this is a 10-2 team that is playing the best it can or can they get better. I think the latter, first of all Darnold has been no fluke, he has shown stretches where he has played as well as anyone, he has all the tools, he has to clean up some of his decision making, I do think he can improve to the point where the level of great play is over longer stretches. TJ is going to become more of a factor and a healthy Oliver will essentially make TJ our 3rd WR, which is an area we have been lacking. We added a lot of new pieces on defense that will continue to improve, I think the big question there is we need to get better overall play on the DL and secondary, hopefully Redmond continues to flash, would like to see McGlothern get some time, as we could really use a spark at DB. While the Lions and Eagles are at their peak, I think we can still take our game to another level.
JR44 wrote:
I think the big question is if this is a 10-2 team that is playing the best it can or can they get better. I think the latter, first of all Darnold has been no fluke, he has shown stretches where he has played as well as anyone, he has all the tools, he has to clean up some of his decision making, I do think he can improve to the point where the level of great play is over longer stretches. TJ is going to become more of a factor and a healthy Oliver will essentially make TJ our 3rd WR, which is an area we have been lacking. We added a lot of new pieces on defense that will continue to improve, I think the big question there is we need to get better overall play on the DL and secondary, hopefully Redmond continues to flash, would like to see McGlothern get some time, as we could really use a spark at DB. While the Lions and Eagles are at their peak, I think we can still take our game to another level.
Not predicting an NFC CG appearance, but I do think they have have upside in play. Especially running the football and TJH is rounding into shape too.
Key (as always) is avoiding the "you know what" bug.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Here's some additional looks:
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But the Vikings can also clinch a playoff berth Sunday if the right pieces fall into place:
Vikings win over Falcons + Seahawks-Cardinals tie
Vikings win over Falcons + Cardinals loss to Seahawks + Rams loss or tie vs. Bills
Vikings tie vs. Falcons + Buccaneers loss to Raiders + Cardinals loss to Seahawks + Rams loss to Bills
Vikings tie vs. Falcons + Buccaneers loss to Raiders + Cardinals tie vs. Seahawks + Rams loss to Bills + Eagles win or tie vs. Panthers
Keep an eye on Scenario No. 2, the most straightforward (and seemingly most likely) path to the postseason this weekend.
Thursday night’s game between the 11-1 Lions and the 9-3 Packers looms large in the NFC North standings. Detroit can become the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. A Lions loss, though, puts the Vikings right back into the race for the division title, the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Just how good is the NFC North as we enter the final five-week stretch of the 2024 regular season?
The Detroit Lions (11-1), Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) hold three of the top four records in the NFC and three of the top seven in the entire NFL.
It's the first time since the 1970 merger that three teams in the same division have entered Week 14 with a win percentage of at least .750, according to ESPN Research.
The 4-8 Chicago Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus after a loss on Thanksgiving, but they nearly beat each of their division rivals the previous three weeks -- losing by a combined seven points.
Beginning Thursday night when the Lions host the Packers (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), every NFC North team plays each other over the final five weeks. Will the Lions hold on to win the division for the second straight season? Will the Vikings or Packers knock them off the top? Will the Bears play the spoiler roll under interim head coach Thomas Brown?
ESPN NFL Nation reporters Eric Woodyard (Lions), Kevin Seifert (Vikings), Rob Demovsky (Packers) and Courtney Cronin (Bears) set the table as we head into the stretch run:.
Detroit Lions (11-1)
FPI's overall ranking: 1
Chances to win division: 84.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 100%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 38.2%/24.3%
Remaining games: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
Why Lions could win the division
From top to bottom, the Lions are arguably the NFL's most balanced team on offense, defense and special teams. At 11-1, they are off to their best start in franchise history with divisional wins against Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago. Detroit is also the NFL's only undefeated team on the road (6-0). After an NFC championship run last season, the Lions have positioned themselves to repeat as champions of the NFC North. This squad is legit.
Why Lions could make a deep playoff run
In 2023, Detroit ended a plethora of notable franchise droughts with its first postseason victory in more than 30 years, against the Los Angeles Rams, before falling one game shy of a Super Bowl appearance with a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. With most of the core of that roster back, the Lions have had an even better season, and that postseason experience should prove to be invaluable as foundational players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery aim to reach the next level.
Biggest concern going forward
Injuries. Although Detroit has been hit with a boatload of injuries on defense, coordinator Aaron Glenn has been able to develop players to backfill those roles. But can they sustain that success if more players get hurt? Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, LB Alex Anzalone, DL John Cominsky, LB Derrick Barnes, DL Marcus Davenport, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, LB Malcolm Rodriguez, DL Mekhi Wingo and special teams ace/linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin are on injured reserve. This is certainly a concern.
Lions' X factor player
Lions WR Jameson Williams. At his best, Williams has proved to be the No. 2 receiving option who can open the offense as a deep-ball threat opposite St. Brown. However, some of his decisions, which forced him serve a two-game suspension for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy, have caused concern. Against Chicago on Thanksgiving, he also committed a taunting penalty in the fourth quarter that cost Detroit 15 yards and could have contributed to a loss, but he addressed the team afterward, apologizing for his mistake. There's no question about his ability on the field, but he has to make better decisions down the stretch. -- Eric Woodyard
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
FPI's overall ranking: 7
Chances to win division: 10.0%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 10.7%/5.2%
Remaining games: vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions
Why Vikings could win the division
It'll be tough and will require regression from the Lions. The Vikings have the NFL's fourth-most difficult remaining schedule, and all six games are against NFC teams -- maximizing the impact of the conference-record tiebreaker. But the Lions' defensive injuries have come at a time when the Vikings' offense, particularly quarterback Sam Darnold, is playing their best. If they can make up one game over the Lions during the next five weeks, while holding off the Packers, the Vikings' Week 18 game at Detroit would be for the NFC North title.
Why Vikings could make a deep playoff run
Playoff games typically come against a conference's best quarterbacks, which puts extra emphasis on the quality of a defense. The Vikings' defense has been the NFL's best for most of this season. Through 12 games it leads the league in interceptions (18) and ranks No. 4 in opposing QBR. The Vikings have trailed by more than one score in three games, and never by more than 13 points. If your defense can keep every game close, you're well on your way to a deep playoff run regardless of the performance of the rest of the team.
Biggest concern going forward
For most of the season, the Vikings have qualified as the NFL's oldest team based on snap-weighed analysis performed by ESPN's Bill Barnwell. In other words, they are mostly relying on a relatively small group of veterans to play the majority of their snaps. Coaches have done what they can to give some of the oldest players, including safety Harrison Smith (35) and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (34), rest during the week. But unless they expand their rotations, the Vikings will enter the playoffs with a lot of wear on their veteran players.
Vikings' X factor player
It might seem odd for a quarterback to fall into this category, but every step forward represents new territory for Darnold. He has never led a team through a playoff push, much less started a playoff game. He is playing the best football of his professional career, having thrown for 811 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception in his past three games, but the pressure will increase from here. The Vikings need him to maintain his current level of play and pair it with the defense's continued aptitude in order to be serious Super Bowl contenders. -- Kevin Seifert
Green Bay Packers (9-3)
FPI's overall ranking: 4
Chances to win division: 5.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.1%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 14.4%/8.0%
Remaining games: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
Why Packers could win the division
They probably can't if they don't beat Detroit on Thursday night. A loss would put the Packers three games behind with four to play, and they would lose the tiebreaker. But this team has played some of its best football since that Week 9 loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers have won their past two games in blowout fashion by a combined score of 68-27, and quarterback Jordan Love is finally over the knee and groin injuries that slowed him early.
Why Packers could make a deep playoff run
The run game. Not only has Josh Jacobs been effective, but coach Matt LaFleur hasn't been afraid to use him. In the past, LaFleur rarely let Aaron Jones top 20 carries per game, but he knows Jacobs can handle more. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 221 carries and he's had three games with 25 or more. That's a winning formula in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Biggest concern going forward
Since the pass rush seems to be improving, there's something a little nitpicky here (though it's not nitpicky to LaFleur): defensive penalties, specifically when the Packers are simply lining up. They were flagged for being offside four times in the past game alone and lead the league with 12 such penalties (including ones declined). "It's become such a problem," LaFleur said, "and it's going to kill us." In all, they've had 20 total penalties for offside, neutral zone infractions and encroachment, which gives opponents either a free play or a free five yards.
Packers' X factor player
Brandon McManus. Since the Packers signed him Oct. 16, he has missed one kick. He is 10-for-11 on field goals and has converted all 16 extra point attempts. Remember, the Packers missed a 41-yard field goal late in the playoff loss to the 49ers last season. Before that game, LaFleur joked to the Fox broadcast crew that he prayed when then-kicker Anders Carlson took the field. LaFleur said he's so confident in McManus that, "I don't even really watch it all the time now. I just kind of move on to the next thing." -- Rob Demovsky
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
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