Sure to be wrong season preview
I just happen to have good buddies all of whom are fans of our NFC North rivals. Each year we put together a "season preview" of sorts that gets locked away until our end of season get together, and we break them out and laugh at (usually) how wrong we were. Here is my synopsis of the Vikies (without game-to-game predictions):
Overall Talent Level
For the first time since I have been doing this, I think the Vikings have the least amount of talent across the board than any team in the North. Apparently this is a popular opinion, as power polls and betting odds almost universally place the Vikings last in the North, particularly lately as Caleb Williams has shown some pre-season competency in Chicago. Vegas currently has the Vikings over/under at 6.5 wins. I have the Vikings at 6-11, with a tough schedule and a tough division.
Offense: It starts at QB and I am not a believer in Sam Darnold. I don't think he is awful, but having seen him play a bunch (particularly in Carolina), I just don't believe that he is just a victim of poor teams and poor schemes and that he is ready to showcase why he was a high draft pick. You get one thing or another with Sam -- picks or ultra-conservative play. I do like Aaron Jones in the backfield, but worry about his age and health -- particularly because I think KOC will be frustrated by lack of production from Chandler/Gaskin/Nwangwu and Jones will end up with more than rotational carries. Outside of Jefferson, I think the Vikings struggle to find playmakers in the passing game. Between his ankle sprain and potential suspension, I expect Addison to be more frustrating than exciting this year. Jalen Nailor could be a breakout player, but our edge at WR in the division is likely gone this year. We will play the same game we always do with Hockenson -- tease that he may be back for weeks and weeks before he actually does come back. I personally do not see him coming back before the bye week. Backup tight ends don't give us much: Oliver, Muse, Mundt, Tonyan ... meh. I do think the offensive line will be improved this year, with the middle still being somewhat suspect, particularly in the run game. Darrisaw could be an All-Pro and Brian O'Neil is also at the top of his game. It remains to be seen who starts and where, as between Brandel, Risner, Bradbury and Ingrahm.
Defense: I believe in Brian Flores, but he just doesn't have the horses for a top 10 defense that would be needed this year to put the Vikings in contention for a playoff spot. The interior defensive line is particularly suspect -- strangely neglected for the most part in free agency and the draft. Harrison Phillips is probably the headliner, but we are going to need a real surprise from the likes of Jaquelin Roy, Jerry Tillery, Levi Rodriguez or other to even be average here. On the edge, I'm expecting a big first year from Dallas Turner -- but production still likely lagging what we got from D. Hunter last year. Pat Jones, Andrew Van Ginkel and Johathan Greenard should benefit from Flores' scheme to find productivity as a group. We should see improvement from Ivan Pace in the middle in his second year, with Blake Cashman the likely non-nickel linebacker. At safety, I love that Harrison Smith is back, but there is no doubt he is no longer in top form. Cam Bynum is average and Josh Metellus showed some promise in different sets last season. At corner, who knows at this point? The Gilmore signing is big, as he played well last season for the Cowboys. That said, not too many 34 year-old CBs flourish in today's NFL. If he can get off the trainer's table, Shaq Griffin looks to join Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evens as primary corners.
Special Teams: There is currently a buzz around rookie placekicker Will Reichard, though the pessimist in me (can you tell I'm a pessimist? :) ) noted the low trajectory on his blocked kick in the first preseason game and wonders if there is an issue. If only Mike Zimmer hadn't blown his top with Daniel Carlson we wouldn't have needed to draft a K :( Hopefully Reichard can alleviate that stomach churn I had everytime our former kicker trotted out for an extra point. The punting job is Ryan Wright's -- hopefully we get the 2022 Ryan Wright and not the sub-par 2023 version. There is really nothing to be excited about with our kick or punt return game.
I see the Vikings struggling to take more than 2 or 3 wins in the North this season -- the Lions and Packers have a clear edge on paper as we head into the year and Chicago is improving and has a high ceiling/high floor kind of year ahead, with coaches coaching for their future and a rookie QB. Strength of schedule looks daunting, at least based on current projections.
Yup, a strong pessimist. The Vikings are a franchise that is pretty hard to be pessimistic about, and stay a fan. What we generally have in common with each other is that we start the season 0-0 and we have hope eternal.
Fair analysis and well written breakdown. I don't really disagree with much of what you have here, but I do believe Sam Darnold, running KOC's offense with the best surround he's ever had, is going to play better than many think. I also think his mobility will help mitigate some of the IOL weakness.
Hunter’s loss notwithstanding, I think our 3-man pass rush rotation of Greenard, Turner and Van Ginkel should be more productive than Hunter, Wonnum and Jones. I think ILB is upgraded as well.
Our October 1st depth chart at corner last year was Murphy, Blackmon and Evans. This year it’s Gilmore, Murphy and Griffin. I think that’s a mild upgrade, maybe even a major upgrade if Gilmore keep defying age.
The biggest problems that I see are that, one, everyone in the North is better. Two, our first half schedule is brutal. And three, we’ll be shorthanded early on. If we can be 3-4 after 7 games, I like our chances to compete for a playoff spot.
Looking at that schedule, I would take 3/4 after 7 games and run with it all day...
I still believe (when the dust settles) this is anywhere from a 6 to 9 win team.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Agree with everyone else 6-9 wins range. We were all hoping to see the development of various players (new signings and draft) and we were deflated with McCarthy going down. With that, most of us were hoping we sat McCarthy for the season anyway so that is coming to fruition.
Also, we assumed we were/are gearing up for next year with tons of space and the hope of franchise QB and that is still the case.
So, you go back to development of all the other players like Turner, Pace, Addison, Blake Brandel, Nailor/Jackson WR-3?, Chandler etc... Then the recoveries of Hock and O'Neil. Lastly to see if our coaching staff continues player development like Flores with the whole D and maybe KOC can do with Darnold/Hall etc.
I am also hoping Hall looks good again tomorrow and makes the cut. I would like to carry 3 QB's.
Those are the things that will keep me interested in a season of low expectations.
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