One take on a Pats/Vikes Trade
Will the Vikings trade up to No. 3 with New England? Three thoughts from a Patriots insider
There is no chance the Bears trade away the chance to draft Caleb Williams No. 1 overall. There is little chance the Commanders move off the No. 2 pick. But there have been consistent rumblings that the Patriots might consider a deal for the No. 3 pick.
To get a better handle on that possibility, I talked to Tom Curran — a Patriots insider for NBC Sports Boston — on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
*Why would New England even consider making the deal?
The Patriots need a quarterback. They have a draft pick that ensures they can get a quarterback. So why is a trade even a possibility?
Curran gave two good reasons. First, New England has a lot of needs. The Patriots finished 4-13 last season and if they are being honest they are in the early stages of a rebuild. Getting multiple first-round picks (just how many is a subject for the next item) might be more valuable than choosing a QB now.
Second, which feeds off the first reason: The Patriots saw what happened to QB Mac Jones when they lacked the support around him. A productive rookie for a playoff team in 2021 turned into a lost cause by 2023, in part because the rest of the roster was in decline.
"They brought it on themselves," Curran said. "That's part of the reason Bill Belichick is visiting colleges right now."
What would it cost the Vikings to move up to No. 3?
Curran suggested that informal conversations with the Patriots lead him to believe it would cost the Vikings the No. 11 and 23 picks this season, next year's first round pick AND another pick, perhaps even another future first rounder, to move up to No. 3.
"I don't know if that's their official stance within the (draft) war room, but I think that's probably what they're doing now," Curran said.
In essence, it will take "a Godfather" type of offer, Curran said.
Which quarterback do the Patriots actually want?
An interesting wrinkle to all this is that my assumption (and most mock drafts) have the Patriots choosing Drake Maye No. 3 if they keep the pick. It is also assumed that the Vikings would take Maye if they move up to No. 3. But Curran made it sound like it might not be such a slam dunk on the New England side.
"To me, I feel like it's a coin flip between Maye and J.J. McCarthy," he said.
If Maye is the QB the Vikings want the most, and it turns out he's still available at No. 4 (Arizona) or No. 5 (Chargers) because the Patriots take McCarthy, it could make a trade for the Vikings a little easier.
https://www.startribune.com/will-the-vikings-trade-up-to-no-3-with-new-england-three-thoughts-from-a-patriots-insider/600359561/
BTW, the compensation quoted pretty much mirrors what Guru posted earlier today in another thread....
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
If KAM trades our 2025 first round pick along with our two first rounders this year to move up just 8 spots he will definitely put the entire management under the gun. I don't think he'll do it.
FLVike wrote:
If KAM trades our 2025 first round pick along with our two first rounders this year to move up just 8 spots he will definitely put the entire management under the gun. I don't think he'll do it.
Counter-point, if he doesn't and Darnold flops is it a sure thing he's making the pick?
NFL Draft Guru wrote:
Counter-point, if he doesn't and Darnold flops is it a sure thing he's making the pick?
This made me laugh. Touché
NFL Draft Guru wrote:
Counter-point, if he doesn't and Darnold flops is it a sure thing he's making the pick?
If he does and Darnold flops then he just gave the Patriots a very high first round pick and then if the new QB flops it's sayonara
FLVike wrote:
If KAM trades our 2025 first round pick along with our two first rounders this year to move up just 8 spots he will definitely put the entire management under the gun. I don't think he'll do it.
Everything we've done the past two years was moving towards turning this team over to a rookie QB. Purging our older/expensive veterans, structuring short-term deals to have a ton of cap space in 2025, not extending Kirk with a guaranteed deal, etc. If Kwesi gets cold feet now or settles, he doesn't deserve the job.
StickierBuns wrote:
The Patriots need a QB just as desperately as Minnesota. They aren't trading out of this spot.
Two totally different situations though. I think the Pats staying and taking a QB is the most likely. But not by much. And I think a lot of it depends on which one is available.
I keep coming back to Mayo talking about their willingness to trade down and urging patience and all the holes they have to fill and building the roster "the right way."
That team is a disaster. They desperately need a left tackle. They desperately need a receiver. They take a QB at three, it'll be Mac Jones all over again and everyone will get fired. If you take the deal, you can still take a QB at 11 or 23 or 34, or build up your roster and take one next year with two more 1st rounders. That's the right way IMO.
StickierBuns wrote:
In theory MB, I don't disagree at all. But when is the last time a NFL team desperately needing a QB yet passed on one to move down?? Never? Somebody is going to have to get really stupid to move NE off that pick, and I mean really stupid. And I don't see that happening.
It's not passing on a QB. It's passing on QB3 to take QB4, 5 or 6 and a mega haul to go with it.
MAD GAINZ wrote:
Everything we've done the past two years was moving towards turning this team over to a rookie QB. Purging our older/expensive veterans, structuring short-term deals to have a ton of cap space in 2025, not extending Kirk with a guaranteed deal, etc. If Kwesi gets cold feet now or settles, he doesn't deserve the job.
I agree with Sticky that I don't think the Pats will trade their pick. Yes they have no LT or WRs but the Bears got Keenan Allen this offseason for a song. Tee Higgins is on the franchise tag and possibly available. LT is trickier but doable. QB? The shot at a franchise one just doesn't come along much so it's hard to see them foregoing that chance for the unknown.
Now from our perspective, I completely agree with Mad Gainz. This is KAM's moment and to leave this draft without a QB would be a disaster. Leaving the draft with a QB the coaches aren't in love with is better, but also courting disaster.
I hope we can get Maye. If not him then McCarthy. If not those two then I think seats start to get very warm around Winter Park.
MaroonBells wrote:
Two totally different situations though. I think the Pats staying and taking a QB is the most likely. But not by much. And I think a lot of it depends on which one is available.
I keep coming back to Mayo talking about their willingness to trade down and urging patience and all the holes they have to fill and building the roster "the right way."
That team is a disaster. They desperately need a left tackle. They desperately need a receiver. They take a QB at three, it'll be Mac Jones all over again and everyone will get fired. If you take the deal, you can still take a QB at 11 or 23 or 34, or build up your roster and take one next year with two more 1st rounders. That's the right way IMO.
I am a little curious if they'll talk themselves out of Maye since he needs the developmental time to work on his mechanics. Or look into taking a haul from MN and getting back up to #4 for McCarthy. There is a funny world where they end up having Daniels, JJM as their QB1/2 since they could better handle the situation they're in.
StickierBuns wrote:
In theory MB, I don't disagree at all. But when is the last time a NFL team desperately needing a QB yet passed on one to move down?? Never? Somebody is going to have to get really stupid to move NE off that pick, and I mean really stupid. And I don't see that happening.
The Bears recently traded out of the #1 overall pick with Carolina and passed up the chance to take Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Anthony Richardson.
Sure they already had a young QB in Fields on the roster... but they had two years of seeing him before they made that move and decided to stick with him. They made the choice to start a guy who hadn't solidified himself as a franchise guy to continue to build their roster knowing they would have two first round picks (one potentially being an early pick from Carolina) the following year.
Not so different than the Patriots having Brissett as their "presumptive starter" and a young guy in Zappe who has started games. Maybe they decide they package of picks the Vikings offer would help them build out their roster and they can grab a QB next year with two potentially early first round picks?
I think it's more likely the Patriots stick and pick at 3 but stranger things have happened.
NFL Draft Guru wrote:
I am a little curious if they'll talk themselves out of Maye since he needs the developmental time to work on his mechanics. Or look into taking a haul from MN and getting back up to #4 for McCarthy. There is a funny world where they end up having Daniels, JJM as their QB1/2 since they could better handle the situation they're in.
Not sure JJM is better prepared for that mess than Maye. But I do tend to think that if Daniels is there, they take him. If not, they're open for business. I think we have to remember that while the Vikings seem high on Maye due to his fit in MN, there are several in the draft community, and likely a few teams too, who have serious questions about him.
MaroonBells wrote:
Not sure JJM is better prepared for that mess than Maye. But I do tend to think that if Daniels is there, they take him. If not, they're open for business. I think we have to remember that while the Vikings seem high on Maye due to his fit in MN, there are several in the draft community, and likely a few teams too, who have serious questions about him.
He's basically a higher ceiling version of Jordan Love in many ways. In the end Love dropped late into the 1st since there were such polarizing opinions. Maye won't drop that far, but I can envision scenarios where he falls outside of the top 3 for sure.
I have no idea how NE stacked their QB board. And as @MB points out that could be a very key determinant if they decide to move or not.
In the end, I think they stick and pick
The good news is all of this will unfold in the first 30 minutes of the draft, no waiting around.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
MaroonBells wrote:
It's not passing on a QB. It's passing on QB3 to take QB4, 5 or 6 and a mega haul to go with it.
Agree, if they aren't sold on whichever of the top 3 remain I could definitely see them moving down for 3 first round picks.
StickierBuns wrote:
But that theory would mean that QB4 or QB5 would be just as good as QB3. Won't be the case as its not linear that way. The same way QB 1 and QB2 would be potentially substantially better than QB3.
It doesn't mean QB 4 or 5 would be just as good as 3. It means that in a class where QBs 3-6 are fairly close together, QB 4 or 5 plus a starting WR or LT could be seen as a better outcome than just QB3.
See, we’re all hyper-focused on QB because that’s our missing piece on offense. That’s all we’re thinking about. That’s not the case for other teams. It’s certainly not the case for the Patriots.
It also assumes consensus is right and that no team has a different opinion from consensus. We've already seen several in the draft community come out and say they have serious questions about Maye. Simms ranked him below Nix, Penix and McCarthy. He's not alone in that. I've heard others say that McCarthy doesn't even belong in the 1st round. It should not be surprising if a few teams in the top 10 shared that opinion. And then when you factor in scheme fit, you get even more variation.
One thing is becoming clearer to me, what Washington does will really impact things - a lot.
Silly me for not realizing that till so late.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Wow, the Pats sure are making it PUBLICLY clear they're very open to trading down. And I hate to be one of those cynical Eeyore fans, but this basically tells frustrated Viking fans that your QB is there for the taking....if'n your GM ponies up the haul we want. No pressure Kwesi.
MaroonBells wrote:
Wow, the Pats sure are making it PUBLICLY clear they're very open to trading down. And I hate to be one of those cynical Eeyore fans, but this basically tells frustrated Viking fans that your QB is there for the taking....if'n your GM ponies up the haul we want. No pressure Kwesi.
Or maybe the Vikies are ultimately going for #4 or #5 level of compensation. Maybe they be fine with JJM, Maye or Daniels?
Whomever drops to them?
I think it all really depends on how much they really like Daniels after their dinner in Baton Rogue together this evening... :D
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
MaroonBells wrote:
Wow, the Pats sure are making it PUBLICLY clear they're very open to trading down. And I hate to be one of those cynical Eeyore fans, but this basically tells frustrated Viking fans that your QB is there for the taking....if'n your GM ponies up the haul we want. No pressure Kwesi.
My thoughts as well. Easy for them to say publicly though while making the price to move up prohibitively high.
Does seem odd he'd be saying that though if the rumored "handshake deal" was truly in place between us and them (or them and anyone). To me this signals nothing is set yet. At least with the Pats.
The thing I'm going to find fascinating is which QB will drop and what it would take for some teams to trade out.
If you believe everything you read, you have Caleb Williams at #1 and then could see 2 of Daniels, Maye, or McCarthy go at #2 and #3.
But then you've elite WR prospects in MHJ and Naibors that I don't think teams would trade out of taking them at 4, 5, or 6 unless it was a bounty. You also have 2-3 elite LT prospects and Brock Bowers at TE who I'm reading a bunch of FO folks and scouts have as a top 6-7 player in the draft regardless of position.
We could see that 4th QB drop into that 8-10 range just because there are some elite prospects at other positions and teams that are looking for elite pieces to put around their QB.
Like let's say it goes...
1 - Caleb Williams
2 - Daniels or Maye
3 - Maye or Daniels
4 - Marvin Harrison Jr
5 - Alt
6 - Naibors (Giants are bluffing about a QB and want one of the elite WRs to drop to them)
7 - Bowers to Tennessee to give Levis another weapon to go with Hopkins and Ridley
Now it gets interesting... Falcons could go OL or defense with Kirk in tow or they could easily trade out for a team that wants whoever dropped out of Maye, McCarthy, or Daniels.
Thursday is gonna be fun (unless we don't get a QB)!
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