Lions are 3 point favorites vs Minnesota next game

JimmyinSD wrote:

Flores has done well against the Lions, however Goff is hitting 83% against the blitz this year... something is going to break. Imo unless the O can put at least 3 in the end zone, we lose this one.

I think he was pretty elite last year as well, except for those 2 games.

pattersaur wrote:

Yep. I said it in another thread too but until some team solves the riddle that is our defense, I wouldn't bet against us in any game.
What Flores is doing reminds me a bit of when Philly first unveiled the tush push. It was so effective and borderline unstoppable that it helped them win the Super Bowl. Over time teams adapted and found ways to defend it (Flores himself had an innovative and effective counter), but until the code gets cracked I like our chances if the defense can stay healthy.

I don’t think there is solving, the D is constantly evolving. Maybe you catch them a couple times but a long term solution doesn’t seem likely.

I don’t think our defense is something that you can crack, but it is highly aggressive in that it leaves holes for you to exploit under the idea that the pressure will get there first. It’s also highly aggressive in run defense where everyone is on the line like the 8 in the box defenses that defended AD, which if the RB breaks through the first wave there might not be a second level to stop them, just maybe a singular deep safety. I think good offenses are going to be able to get chunk plays against us. If a team can stack a couple of chunk plays into the same drive, that is likely to turn into points.

I think the teams that will beat us will get enough explosive plays in a game to get TDs. I think they will be able to run the ball well enough to minimize the total number of hits their QB takes. I think they’ll avoid turnovers. I wouldn’t expect them to be perfect, just clean football and a enough explosive plays stacked together and maybe getting a few easy looks if we turn the ball over. I don’t think this is an impossible task for better offenses with smart QBs and smart OCs.

To reliably beat these better teams, I think we’re going to have to expect our offense to score 20ish points without a short field from a defensive turnover. Maybe we can beat them if our defense or special teams does even better even without quality offense.

Still -3.

Typically the biggest movement comes Sunday through Monday when the pros are taking advantage of soft lines and Friday through Saturday when amateur betters weigh in.