Random Draft Thoughts

Bullazin wrote:
At 18 we will be staring at a big pile of 2nd round talent.  If you could trade down or trade out for 27,  this is the year to do it.

A team needs to be whole before the draft, that’s how you can stay true to the process. So, where are the holes? 

Glaring:
DT- I dont like anyone at 18. At all. Woods and McDonald have the most upside.

Next highest :
RB- fine until our first snap.  Translation: this is our biggest need outside DT.

LB- age is a factor, a pick here in the top 97 is necessary for us.

Picks needed but not really that pressing:

S- metellus, Jackson ward. - should work but any team falls off when a borderline HOF hangs it up. 

C- Brandel is fine. I actually like Hecht out of this group although Lew has the most potential.

No way I'm trading out for a '27 pick. But I would consider trading down for another day-two pick. Sure, you'll piss off all the haters but that can be fun. I agree with you that the value at DT just isn't there at 18. So if that's our target we really should consider trading down.

This is an older re-post (2015). from a Chief site..Not sure if this has changed much or not?

The percentages by round of finding consistent starters at each position (best to least):

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

QB
The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.

Running Back
There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

Offensive Line
The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.

Tight End
The success rate for tight ends is as follows: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 32%, 6th - 26%, 7th - 0%. In other words, selecting a tight end in the 3rd through 6th doesn't make a lot of difference.
The highest number of tight ends has been selected in the 7th round (31) with the least amount of success (0%)

Wide Receiver
The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
If you are ranking the rounds by numbers drafted, you would go 7th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st and 5th.
The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.

Defensive Line
Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.

Linebacker
If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.
There isn't much drop off in the second round either, with a success rate of 55%.
The third round isn't that bad at 34% but after that the drop is steep with the 4th round plummeting to 16%, the 5th round to 4%, 5% in the 6th and only 2% success in the 7th.

Defensive Backs
You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)
After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)

OT is a premium position & there are teams that are still looking to upgrade there. If there's an OT with a first round grade still on the board at #18, & that's very likely to happen, the Vikings will likely get a very solid offer to trade down.

I think you'll be surprised

Possibly....but odds are much better you'll be the one surprised.

StickierBuns wrote:

Possibly....but odds are much better you'll be the one surprised.

You have to look at the board and what makes sense under the circumstances. We can all agree that defensive line is a huge need and Peter Woods is probably the only guy out of that top group who really fits what we know of Flores and what his preferences are. You just don't take safety with the 18th pick and I personally believe Smith is coming back. So where does that leave us at #18? You can absolutely make a strong case for taking a receiver;

- Regardless of them picking up the 5th year option on Addison, it doesn't take receiver out of play because of the multiple receiver sets we know OConnell wants to run. It gives you the option to not sign Addison to an extension either because of the money or you just don't trust him.

- Injury insurance

- Nobody has any idea what Tai Felton is at this point, but he didn't see the field last year and based on prior Kwesi drafts, you'd have to think the chances of him developing into a reliable contributer....probably arent good. If he's a bust, there is nobody in the pipeline behind him. This is the major sticking point in my theory is we just don't know how the organization feels about Felton as a prospect moving forward, but if they are ready to shitcan McCarthy after ten games, you'd have to believe they'd have zero problem going in another direction at receiver, which is a hugely important position in the OConnell offense. 

- I think any one of Tyson, Boston or Cooper are significantly better prospects and would upgrade our multi-receiver sets substantially. Remember some guy named Randy Moss and the impact he had in the "3 deep" squad. Turning a strength into a super power would absolutely have to intrigue OConnell going into a "must win" year for him.

I guess we'll find out in a few weeks

If you're into mock draft sites, this might be the best one I've used. 

https://draft-simulator.atozsports.com/

Latest Kiper/Miller/Reid/Yates Rds 1-3 mock. I would be shocked on anything but IDL if they stay at 49

============================================================

18. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
This might be the second-most-predicted pick in mock drafts behind Mendoza to the Raiders. Thieneman can be a smooth-moving replacement for longtime Vikings safety Harrison Smith.

49. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper's pick: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
Aaron Jones Sr. is 31 years old, and Jordan Mason hasn't made the jump to clear RB1. Neither is signed beyond 2026. And Price is a powerful runner with enough speed to cut and go.

82. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Connor Lew, C, Auburn
Ryan Kelly's retirement this offseason leaves an opening at center. Lew is coming off an ACL injury but has high-end starter traits.

97. Minnesota Vikings*
Kiper's pick: De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, Ole Miss
The Jalen Nailor role behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is open for applicants in the Minnesota offense, and Stribling is fresh off his second straight 800-plus-yard season.

purplefaithful wrote:
Latest Kiper/Miller/Reid/Yates Rds 1-3 mock. I would be shocked on anything but IDL if they stay at 49

============================================================

18. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
This might be the second-most-predicted pick in mock drafts behind Mendoza to the Raiders. Thieneman can be a smooth-moving replacement for longtime Vikings safety Harrison Smith.

49. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper's pick: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
Aaron Jones Sr. is 31 years old, and Jordan Mason hasn't made the jump to clear RB1. Neither is signed beyond 2026. And Price is a powerful runner with enough speed to cut and go.

82. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Connor Lew, C, Auburn
Ryan Kelly's retirement this offseason leaves an opening at center. Lew is coming off an ACL injury but has high-end starter traits.

97. Minnesota Vikings*
Kiper's pick: De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, Ole Miss
The Jalen Nailor role behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is open for applicants in the Minnesota offense, and Stribling is fresh off his second straight 800-plus-yard season.

I like all of these players, but damn, my kingdom for a DT. I love Stribling, but every day I get more and more intrigued by Bryce Lance.

supafreak84 wrote:

You have to look at the board and what makes sense under the circumstances. We can all agree that defensive line is a huge need and Peter Woods is probably the only guy out of that top group who really fits what we know of Flores and what his preferences are. You just don't take safety with the 18th pick and I personally believe Smith is coming back. So where does that leave us at #18? You can absolutely make a strong case for taking a receiver;

- Regardless of them picking up the 5th year option on Addison, it doesn't take receiver out of play because of the multiple receiver sets we know OConnell wants to run. It gives you the option to not sign Addison to an extension either because of the money or you just don't trust him.

- Injury insurance

- Nobody has any idea what Tai Felton is at this point, but he didn't see the field last year and based on prior Kwesi drafts, you'd have to think the chances of him developing into a reliable contributer....probably arent good. If he's a bust, there is nobody in the pipeline behind him. This is the major sticking point in my theory is we just don't know how the organization feels about Felton as a prospect moving forward, but if they are ready to shitcan McCarthy after ten games, you'd have to believe they'd have zero problem going in another direction at receiver, which is a hugely important position in the OConnell offense. 

- I think any one of Tyson, Boston or Cooper are significantly better prospects and would upgrade our multi-receiver sets substantially. Remember some guy named Randy Moss and the impact he had in the "3 deep" squad. Turning a strength into a super power would absolutely have to intrigue OConnell going into a "must win" year for him.

I guess we'll find out in a few weeks

If they draft a stud WR I certainly won't complain but there's still some warm bodies the Vikes can bring in cheap to fill the WR3 spot between now and Week 1 if need be. DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Reynolds, Keenan Allen, etc.

Definitely not as exciting as a rookie stud but I just don't see how WR3 contributes in an offense that threw for 3,000 yds last year. PEAK Kyler never crossed 4,000. Maybe this year he does but even still...

If the team hadn't foolishly (IMO) kept TJH around and I thought we were going to tweak the offense away from TE sets, then I'd be more on board with WR over DEF.

purplefaithful wrote:
Latest Kiper/Miller/Reid/Yates Rds 1-3 mock. I would be shocked on anything but IDL if they stay at 49

============================================================

18. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
This might be the second-most-predicted pick in mock drafts behind Mendoza to the Raiders. Thieneman can be a smooth-moving replacement for longtime Vikings safety Harrison Smith.

49. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper's pick: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
Aaron Jones Sr. is 31 years old, and Jordan Mason hasn't made the jump to clear RB1. Neither is signed beyond 2026. And Price is a powerful runner with enough speed to cut and go.

82. Minnesota Vikings
Miller's pick: Connor Lew, C, Auburn
Ryan Kelly's retirement this offseason leaves an opening at center. Lew is coming off an ACL injury but has high-end starter traits.

97. Minnesota Vikings*
Kiper's pick: De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, Ole Miss
The Jalen Nailor role behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is open for applicants in the Minnesota offense, and Stribling is fresh off his second straight 800-plus-yard season.

I would absolutely love this draft with one exception.. I would take Hurst at 97

pattersaur wrote:

If they draft a stud WR I certainly won't complain but there's still some warm bodies the Vikes can bring in cheap to fill the WR3 spot between now and Week 1 if need be. DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Reynolds, Keenan Allen, etc.

Definitely not as exciting as a rookie stud but I just don't see how WR3 contributes in an offense that threw for 3,000 yds last year. PEAK Kyler never crossed 4,000. Maybe this year he does but even still...

If the team hadn't foolishly (IMO) kept TJH around and I thought we were going to tweak the offense away from TE sets, then I'd be more on board with WR over DEF.

Those bodies are just barely warm at this point. I just keep going back to the year end press conference and that its a well known fact that OConnell wants to run multi receiver sets a majority of the time and there is zero chance he gets caught with his pants down at receiver in a "must win" year for him. If they aren't confident in Felton being a reliable contributer (which is very possible) or someone that can start (in case of injury) it leaves us with Jefferson, Addison, and a cast of UFL retreads as far as the eye can see. If OConnell is calling the shots, it would have to be a special, special defensive player on the board for him to pass over the likes of those receiver prospects I mentioned.

I think KOC is jonesing for one of those C's tbh...

Poor drafting has resulted in lots of needs on this team, last years FA duds just added to the problem.

It shouldn't be hard to find a home for these rooks, wherever they play.

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Blake Brandel is a center, but maybe not the center

The departure of Garrett Bradbury after the 2024 season and the retirement of Ryan Kelly last month will leave the Vikings with a new starting center for the third consecutive season.

Based on conversations in Phoenix, the best way to describe the position is that it's in flux. O'Connell has made one important decision by declaring Brandel -- who has played all five offensive line positions -- a center for the purposes of this offseason and likely for the 2026 season, as well.

It seems premature to call him the likely starter, however. O'Connell talked extensively about Brandel when asked generally about the position, saying he has "some pretty unique athleticism in his lower half that really bodes well for him to be able to get to the second level on different angles and get to different defenders." But the coach also noted the presence of 2024 seventh-round pick Michael Jurgens and, notably, said he "wouldn't hesitate" to add another center via late-spring/early summer free agency or in the draft if the opportunity presents itself.

At 6-foot-6, Brandel doesn't have the typical build as a center. Last season, a center 6-6 or taller started roughly 25% of NFL games.

Brandel has spent most of his six-year career as a backup tackle and guard, with one season as a full-time starter in 2024. He played center last season only because Kelly and Jurgens were injured. Players with similar profiles don't often emerge as long-term starters at this point in their careers, especially at a new position. The Vikings consider Brandel an option but not necessarily an ideal one.

ESPN