Vikings 3rd round picks over past 15 years

Team’s think draft picks are gold. Remember Spielman wheeling and dealing and compiling late round picks? Go look at those. Maybe one worthwhile player in a decade. We missed good players by dropping down to get those puck’s.

The 1st and 2nd round are by far the ones that stick and even then it takes some luck. Here are some interesting stats:

25% to 30% of NFL rosters are undrafted played. One or two may make it through camp, but these are the majority players who have been in the league. They make up 10-15% of your starters typically. This tells you how limited scouting actually is, or at least gives you an idea of what’s being missed each year and where a team can get an untapped edge.

If you made 7 draft picks and you get two to three to stick long term, you’ve had a pretty good draft. If you put in the work to get the best undrafted players in and/or scouted practice squad players, your odds of hitting on guys is probably not much different.

This is why I consider draft picks, anything other than the first round and 2nd, as not having much real value. It’s also why I consider trading down almost universally stupid unless it’s a very short distance and adds an additional 1 or 2. Otherwise, you are best off taking the best player available. This is how you take Aaron Donald at 9.

If you’re referring to Nelson, he’s due a big new contract and our OLine is already expensive. I bet that played a bigger part than the pick in this case.

pattersaur wrote:

If you’re referring to Nelson, he’s due a big new contract and our OLine is already expensive. I bet that played a bigger part than the pick in this case.

Yeah, a 1/2 year rental at OG doesn't seem to be our fix. Just how quick could a OG get up to speed on a new offense.

Such an interesting thread topic when we are 6–0. 🤔

With the salary cap, teams typically end up with a handful of expensive star players, another chunk of quality free agents, but then there’s a very long list of players that are low cost players.  If you go the veteran free agent route, you’re pretty limited in what you can get for low cost players.  Low cost veterans are typically going to be lower quality players.  With the draft and UDFAs however, you have the opportunity to get players that are much higher quality for their relative cost.  If you spend all your draft picks on trades for expensive free agents, you’ll run into to the problem of not having enough guys that are outperforming their low cost contracts.  If you are in a SB window … screw the future because the goal is to win a SB by putting the most amount of talent on your team, not to be perpetually efficient in some sort of spreadsheet way.

I've made similar posts. Yes, it's ridiculous how teams overvalue draft picks.