2027 Projected Compensatory Pick

One of the reasons I did not like the Greendard trade, when you figure we would probably gotten a high comp pick for him, it decreases the value of the return.

Didn’t Greenard have 2 years left on his contract? I hated the trade too, and it would be enough for me to disqualify Brez from consideration as full time GM. But hating the trade had nothing to do with a potential compensatory pick in the 2029 draft.

I would have kept JG and had him play on his deal or cut someone - Hock maybe? - to give JG a minor pay bump. The first rule for any GM should be: don’t make any moves that leave you worse off. That’s what Brez did with the JG trade. He is not a competent GM.

Another site I looked at said Nailor would get us a comp 6. Who knows. At one point we thought we were going to have 3 comps for 2026... then IPJ forgot how to play football and Indiana Jones blew his Achilles 😖

JR44 wrote:

One of the reasons I did not like the Greendard trade, when you figure we would probably gotten a high comp pick for him, it decreases the value of the return.

Faulty logic, this way you got 2 picks guaranteed, one of which was immediate, the second of which is guaranteed. Even the best compensatory pick would have been a year out and at best as high as the first one we had this year, not to mention very likely that we would have done our own shopping which could have easily lowered or completely erased any potential compensation for losing him to FA. Bird in the hand thing, except this time we have two in the hand instead of one in the bush.

Also the added salary cap for this and next year, on top of the matter of getting more developmental reps out of Turner on the cheap.

About the only argument against the trade should be losing that level of talent, but honestly he wasn't going to be happy on his current deal and the team couldn't really afford to keep him happy then justify to continue getting Turner the number of reps he needs to develop at the same position and role IMO.

I don’t think we’re done in free agency yet.  I guess we’ll have to see if we wait until June first to sign anyone or would prefer to lock a quality guy up as soon as possible.  Very real possibility of no comp picks.

Regarding Greenard, I doubt he would ever have been factored into the comp pick equation and even if he did, when would we get it?  2028?  I would have imagined that the most likely scenario would have been letting him rebuild his value in 2026 with maybe a slight boost in pay, and then let him go find a trade partner when the compensation was a little more reasonable next offseason, but I think it would have been surprising to let him play out 2027 without trading him. 

The Greenard trade was pretty horrible.  The compensation was shit.  The roster is going to be worse.  We gained a rookie backup, we lost a best in class backup.  We saved some money that we can use to pay Addison for a year and a half, but we’re not desperate for cap space.  I think the most definitive thing about this trade is that it says that the Vikings aren’t that serious about winning this year.  The Eagles were much more strapped for cap space and they easily figured it out.  If you think that Murray has any chance to be a QB that leads you to the SB, this is the year to push your chips in.  That is not what we’re doing.  It’s only going to get harder when you actually have to pay your QB.

JR44 wrote:

One of the reasons I did not like the Greendard trade, when you figure we would probably gotten a high comp pick for him, it decreases the value of the return.

It's not guaranteed that we'd get a comp pick for Greenard, it only happens when we don't sign anyone that would offset it. Also it would be a 2028 pick. Most analysts discount picks by a round per each year into the future the pick occurs. A 3rd round comp is at the back of the third, so essentially a top of the 4th round pick, discounted to top of the 5th since it will always be a year later.

Getting two 3rds and giving up a 7th is much better value, particularly since one of the 3rds was this year i.e. not discounted and already has been used by the Vikings.

medaille wrote:

The Greenard trade was pretty horrible.  The compensation was shit.  The roster is going to be worse.  We gained a rookie backup, we lost a best in class backup.  We saved some money that we can use to pay Addison for a year and a half, but we’re not desperate for cap space.  I think the most definitive thing about this trade is that it says that the Vikings aren’t that serious about winning this year.  The Eagles were much more strapped for cap space and they easily figured it out.  If you think that Murray has any chance to be a QB that leads you to the SB, this is the year to push your chips in.  That is not what we’re doing.  It’s only going to get harder when you actually have to pay your QB.

I doubt KOC would say there's no pressure to win and they don't have to be serious. His job might be on the line.

As for Greenard, first look at this tweet:

To clarify the list:

Rashan Gary to DAL --> 2027 4th to GB
Dre'Mont Jones to BAL --> Conditional 2026 5th to TEN
Matthew Judon to ATL --> 2025 3rd to NE
Haason Reddick to NYJ --> 2026 3rd to PHI
Jonathan Greenard to PHI --> 2026 3rd + 2027 3rd to MIN + 2027 7th to PHI

We got the most back in the trade of all 5 deals.

What are Greenard's numbers versus those guys? You can see in the table below that his sack rate is the lowest, he is by no means the best of the bunch statistically. And the higher level edges on the 2nd table below command the bigger salaries and trade values are all better. Greenard isn't one of them and is 14 out of 14 in career sacks/game.

Putting aside forced fumbles, all the averages of stats for that top tier are about 50% more productive than the tier of guys that includes Greenard. So I'd say we took Howie Roseman to the woodshed, not the other way around.

Career average per game

Player Tackles Sacks TFL FF

Rashan Gary 2.27 0.43 0.68 0.07

Haason Reddick 2.83 0.59 0.67 0.12

Matthew Judon 3.75 0.65 0.82 0.16

Jonathan Greenard 1.83 0.35 0.48 0.06

Dre'Mont Jones 1.86 0.37 0.47 0.05

Averages 2.51 0.48 0.62 0.09

Myles Garrett 3.20 0.80 0.95 0.13

Micah Parsons 3.40 0.85 0.90 0.10

Aidan Hutchinson 3.60 0.70 0.95 0.08

T.J. Watt 4.00 0.85 1.05 0.20

Will Anderson Jr. 3.10 0.60 0.85 0.07

Danielle Hunter 3.30 0.75 0.90 0.09

Brian Burns 3.00 0.65 0.80 0.10

Nick Bosa 3.10 0.80 0.90 0.12

Maxx Crosby 4.20 0.75 1.10 0.08

Averages 3.43 0.75 0.93 0.11

I loved Greenard and he was a team captain for a reason. But I ask myself, would Eagles have made this trade and guaranteed $55mm on $100mm if they had a Dallas Turner on their roster?

JR44 wrote:

One of the reasons I did not like the Greendard trade, when you figure we would probably gotten a high comp pick for him, it decreases the value of the return.

We received two 3rds for JG. At BEST we would have gotten ONE 3rd